ATL: EMILY - Remnants

#8061 Postby **Vortex** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 6:29 pm

Per NWS Miami:

THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS NOW SHOW A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF EMILY PUSHING FURTHER WEST AND
INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY.

artist · #8062 Postby **artist** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 6:31 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:
artist wrote:anyone know what direction these Miami webcams face?
http://www.miamiandbeaches.com/visitors/beachcam.asp

The beachcam at Sunny Isles looks to be facing Northeast

I was hoping one might be facing se. Thanks.

SouthFLTropics · #8063 Postby **SouthFLTropics** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 6:31 pm

Vortex wrote:Per NWS Miami:

THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS NOW SHOW A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF EMILY PUSHING FURTHER WEST AND
INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY.

Do you get the sense that there may be some people that live in low lying areas, mobile homes, and on barrier islands that are going to wake up tomorrow morning and go "UH OH"

artist · #8064 Postby **artist** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 6:32 pm

Vortex wrote:Per NWS Miami:

THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS NOW SHOW A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF EMILY PUSHING FURTHER WEST AND
INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY.

very close to what Melbourne's states as well.

KWT · #8065 Postby **KWT** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 6:33 pm

Vortex wrote:Per NWS Miami:

THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS NOW SHOW A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF EMILY PUSHING FURTHER WEST AND
INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY.

I susp0ect the models that do bring in moisture probably are doing so because they see no development at all of this area, if it develops it should feel enough pull to get it out of there.

jusforsean · #8066 Postby **jusforsean** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 6:40 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:
Vortex wrote:Per NWS Miami:

THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS NOW SHOW A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF EMILY PUSHING FURTHER WEST AND
INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY.

Do you get the sense that there may be some people that live in low lying areas, mobile homes, and on barrier islands that are going to wake up tomorrow morning and go "UH OH"

I am starting to wonder...my question is how much of an UH OH should i expect hmmmm :eek:

#8067 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 6:41 pm

70%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR DATA FROM CUBA
INDICATE THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM
EMILY HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR
THE SURFACE CENTER...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF
REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW ON
SATURDAY...IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Aric Dunn · #8068 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 6:44 pm

interesting they did not mention florida at all.. lol

#8069 Postby **mutley** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 6:45 pm

cycloneye wrote:70%

And nearly stationary.

#8070 Postby **Jevo** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 6:45 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:interesting they did not mention florida at all.. lol

Stacy has big plans tomorrow.. He's -removed- the rain away by means of the TWO

#8071 Postby **micktooth** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 6:46 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:interesting they did not mention florida at all.. lol

I noticed that too. Are they that confident that this "blob" of moisture will miss Florida?

Aric Dunn · #8072 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 6:47 pm

micktooth wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:interesting they did not mention florida at all.. lol

I noticed that too. Are they that confident that this "blob" of moisture will miss Florida?

seems odd because the circ is already affecting florida as well lol..

KWT · #8073 Postby **KWT** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 6:50 pm

Well I wouldn't call 10mph stationary, but its fairly slow I suppose...its enough time for it to develop and give the N.Bahamas a bit of wind and rain I suppose!

#8074 Postby **Vortex** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 6:51 pm

Continues to improve in overall organization..

StarmanHDB · #8075 Postby **StarmanHDB** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 6:54 pm

micktooth wrote:....Are they that confident that this "blob" of moisture will miss Florida?

"Blob of Moisture"....sounds way too scientific for my health!
:lol:

TAD · #8076 Postby **TAD** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 6:55 pm

I was wondering if this had anything to do with Emily's sudden and dramatic collapse. It would seem plausible. Solar flares have a large effect on the ionosphere. What effect would all that charging have on rain storms and clouds in a hurricane? I'm thinking about both the height of the ionosphere and those mysterious sprites over thunderstorms.

I really know nothing about it, but it is interesting.

GCANE wrote:Heads up.

There is a strong to extreme geomagnetic storm underway.

There is a possibility that satellite data could be disrupted.

GEOMAGNETIC STORM IN PROGRESS:

A major geomagnetic storm is in progress following the impact of a CME on August 5th around 1800 UT.

Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say that the CME impact may have strongly compressed Earth's magnetic field, directly exposing satellites in geosynchronous orbit to solar wind plasma. Stay tuned for updates on this aspect of the storm.

http://www.spaceweather.com/

Space Weather Message Code: WARK07
Serial Number: 32
Issue Time: 2011 Aug 05 2146 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 7 or greater expected
Valid From: 2011 Aug 05 2200 UTC
Valid To: 2011 Aug 06 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G3 or greater - Strong to Extreme

#8077 Postby **ozonepete** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 6:56 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:interesting they did not mention florida at all.. lol

they're still gun shy. But we have to remember they held off on issuing TS watches for Florida when it started to cross Haiti and they were right after all was said and done. But this time is even freakier, because something is forming right off their doorstep, lol.

#8078 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 6:56 pm

The red circle avoids SE Florida by a couple of miles.

Uploaded by Imageshack.us

storm4u · #8079 Postby **storm4u** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 6:57 pm

shes also could be a part of our weather!!!

SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS IS THE TIME WHEN THE FORECAST GETS MORE
COMPLICATED. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES PRECIPITABLE WATERS
INCREASING TO THE 2.0-2.5 INCH RANGE...WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET AT 850 MB. MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW IS A MODEST
20-40 KT...SO AM NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING QUITE YET. THE
PROBLEM IS THE TIMING...AND WHETHER A TROPICAL TIE-IN TO THE
REMNANTS OF EMILY CAN BE ESTABLISHED. CURRENTLY THINKING SHOWERS
BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

#8080 Postby **mutley** » Fri Aug 05, 2011 6:59 pm

cycloneye wrote:The red circle avoids SE Florida by a couple of miles.

Uploaded by Imageshack.us

That's pretty funny!

ATL: EMILY - Remnants

Re: Re:

Re:

Re:

Re:

Re: Re:

Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

Re:

Re:

Re: Re:

Re: Re:

Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

Re:

Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion - 8 PM TWO=70%

Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion - 8 PM TWO=70%

Who is online