ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[rooster411]

I actually believed my wife when she told me "You are the only nut out there who will stare at a radar loop for 20 minutes at a time!!"
She was wrong...... ha!

[gatorcane]

18Z NAM initialized the low and brings this mess into SE Florida 30 hours from now then turns it north, though is forecasting a decrease in convection. Not sure I agree with the NAM on convection decreasing like that as it approaches SE Florida.

[SouthDadeFish]

I don't think its organizing quickly enough to be a TD by 11... low-level clouds still show broad cyclonic turning, not a very tight LLC in my opinion. I think it may develop a LLC by tomorrow morning at the earliest. Still seems somewhat "troughy." Just my opinion.

[KWT]

Aric I think you nailed it..looks to be coming together just SE of Andros...Could go to TS pretty quickly if the trends continue and no reason they shouldnt..

Certainly possible, pretty much no chance they upgrade tonight though, esp with vis imagery leaving unless there is some very overwhelming evidence. Whilst there is a circulation forming, I'd be a bit surprised if it was closed as of this very moment.

Its trending the right way...and you know what I still wouldn't be shocked if by the time it exits to the NE/E its a hurricane...

[artist]

anyone know what direction these Miami webcams face?
http://www.miamiandbeaches.com/visitors/beachcam.asp

[gatorcane]

The weather from x-Emily looks like it will just miss us to the east.

It's possible but there are some indications (and model runs from today) showing it could bring some decent rains here in SE Florida....

[robbielyn]

Aric I think you nailed it..looks to be coming together just SE of Andros...Could go to TS pretty quickly if the trends continue and no reason they shouldnt..

Certainly possible, pretty much no chance they upgrade tonight though, esp with vis imagery leaving unless there is some very overwhelming evidence. Whilst there is a circulation forming, I'd be a bit surprised if it was closed as of this very moment.

Its trending the right way...and you know what I still wouldn't be shocked if by the time it exits to the NE/E its a hurricane...

especially when it hits the gulf stream sure itll become a hurricane watch out bermuda

[KWT]

Yeah I'm not sure thats the right solution either...

Sort of a win for all the models, no one model did an outstanding job on this system IMO, but at the same time they nearly all did an ok job with this evolution.

for example nogaps called for it to decay nerar Haiti, the CMC did a great job with the reformation of the vort further north, GFS and ECM both were good overall, UKMO did a decent job taking it further west then some of the other models.

[jabber]

I actually believed my wife when she told me "You are the only nut out there who will stare at a radar loop for 20 minutes at a time!!"
She was wrong...... ha!

Trust me your are not alone....

[artist]

I actually believed my wife when she told me "You are the only nut out there who will stare at a radar loop for 20 minutes at a time!!"
She was wrong...... ha!

very wrong, what, I think we have, ummm, over 10,000 members?

[KWT]

The weather from x-Emily looks like it will just miss us to the east.

It's possible but there are some indications (and model runs from today) showing it could bring some decent rains here in SE Florida....

Depends really on whether the system actually wraps around, there will be an increase in moisture but not sure it'll be all that wet really in the end for most unless it really ramps up.

[Jevo]

There is no need to send recon to upgrade (if needed) if there is coverage

[ozonepete]

I actually believed my wife when she told me "You are the only nut out there who will stare at a radar loop for 20 minutes at a time!!"
She was wrong...... ha!

very wrong, what, I think we have, ummm, over 10,000 members?

I'm one of those nuts.

[GCANE]

My home-brew XTRAP puts it in the Keys.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 051715.jpg

[Bluefrog]

Welcome Rooster ... you will love this group ......... and this place can drive you MAD sometimes but its a great place for GREAT CURRENT info ..... welcome aboard.

[SouthFLTropics]

Well here we are again...It was nice to get some good rest last night because I had a feeling that I would be on here quite a bit again tonight. So it's your last chance Emily! What have you got to show for yourself???

[CourierPR]

This could be like the soap operas where a character dies and then comes back months or years later.

[SouthFLTropics]

This could be like the soap operas where a character dies and then comes back months or years later.

Well I think it is safe to say that Emily will be back in 6 years for sure. Whether she comes back in 6 hours remains to be seen...LOL

SFT

[Vortex]

My home-brew XTRAP puts it in the Keys.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 051715.jpg

Very interesting GCANE...

[SouthFLTropics]

anyone know what direction these Miami webcams face?
http://www.miamiandbeaches.com/visitors/beachcam.asp

The beachcam at Sunny Isles looks to be facing Northeast