ATL: EMILY - Remnants

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mutley
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Re:

#8021 Postby mutley » Fri Aug 05, 2011 5:50 pm

Vortex wrote:Just west of Andros looks very suspect..Anyone else notice???



http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes


Looking at that radar, it does seem to show a consolidation of storms toward a point about 23 N and 77W.

Sorry, I meant this post about the cuban radar, not miami.
Last edited by mutley on Fri Aug 05, 2011 5:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#8022 Postby robbielyn » Fri Aug 05, 2011 5:50 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:although looking at Cuban radar ... it appears SE of Andros there is some better rotation with the cells. could end up there as well.. hard to say at this point..

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif



You are right Aric... I dont see how it can be up the northern bahamas in 12-18 hours looks like circ is still 76.5w 23N. Not moving much at all because its trying to reform there and probably trying to stack like this could be a real storm this time. Its getting its act together. And it is se of andros look at cuban radar visible is clear too.
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Re: Re:

#8023 Postby ozonepete » Fri Aug 05, 2011 5:51 pm

artist wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:although looking at Cuban radar ... it appears SE of Andros there is some better rotation with the cells. could end up there as well.. hard to say at this point..

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

that is where I have been keeping my eye this afternoon Aric.


Me too. I still think E or SE of Andros is where things are coming together. There appear to be some nascent LLCs popping up under that convective mass. Any one of them could make the connection with higher levels and take over.
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#8024 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 05, 2011 5:53 pm

Winds are picking up along the SE Coast of Florida this evening. Notice the NE component to the wind also...

The increasing winds are telling me that pressures are starting to fall to the SE and pressure gradient increasing:

W PALM BEACH MOSUNNY 91 75 59 NE14 29.93S HX 101
FT LAUDER-EXEC SUNNY 91 75 59 E9 29.93S HX 101
FT LAUDERDALE MOSUNNY 89 76 65 E14 29.92F HX 100
POMPANO BEACH MOSUNNY 89 78 70 NE12 29.94S HX 103
PEMBROKE PINES SUNNY 90 76 63 NE13 29.94S HX 101
OPA LOCKA MOSUNNY 89 76 65 E14 29.93S HX 100
MIAMI MOSUNNY 91 75 59 E14G20 29.93S HX 101
WEST KENDALL SUNNY 90 75 61 E15G21 29.91F HX 100
HOMESTEAD SUNNY 89 78 70 E14 29.92S HX 103
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#8025 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 05, 2011 5:53 pm

It does look like there is some sort of circulation to the west Andros Island, I also wouldn't be surprised if something may try and form just to the E of Andros, near the MLC.

Sure looks like its trying to wrap up again, the MLC seems like its really getting some good spin on it now, impressive how quickly the mid level can get going.
Last edited by KWT on Fri Aug 05, 2011 5:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#8026 Postby GCANE » Fri Aug 05, 2011 5:54 pm

Heads up.

There is a strong to extreme geomagnetic storm underway.

There is a possibility that satellite data could be disrupted.

GEOMAGNETIC STORM IN PROGRESS:

A major geomagnetic storm is in progress following the impact of a CME on August 5th around 1800 UT.

Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say that the CME impact may have strongly compressed Earth's magnetic field, directly exposing satellites in geosynchronous orbit to solar wind plasma. Stay tuned for updates on this aspect of the storm.

http://www.spaceweather.com/

Space Weather Message Code: WARK07
Serial Number: 32
Issue Time: 2011 Aug 05 2146 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 7 or greater expected
Valid From: 2011 Aug 05 2200 UTC
Valid To: 2011 Aug 06 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G3 or greater - Strong to Extreme
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#8027 Postby rooster411 » Fri Aug 05, 2011 5:54 pm

New member here. You guys really have some great discussions. Look forward to having this place to keep up with all the latest from this and future storms that might have an impact on us Florida folks.
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#8028 Postby Vortex » Fri Aug 05, 2011 5:55 pm

Plenty of SW winds being reported over Cuba now...She's organizing at a decent clip now..I think theyll go with 70-80% at 8...
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Re:

#8029 Postby Vortex » Fri Aug 05, 2011 5:57 pm

rooster411 wrote:New member here. You guys really have some great discussions. Look forward to having this place to keep up with all the latest from this and future storms that might have an impact on us Florida folks.



Welcome....
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#8030 Postby sponger » Fri Aug 05, 2011 5:58 pm

Welcome to the forum Rooster!
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Re:

#8031 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 05, 2011 5:59 pm

Vortex wrote:Plenty of SW winds being reported over Cuba now...She's organizing at a decent clip now..I think theyll go with 70-80% at 8...


Given the convective increase and the obvious beginnings of some sort of surface circulation, I'd go with 80% right now.
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#8032 Postby SunnyThoughts » Fri Aug 05, 2011 5:59 pm

HI rooster, welcome to the board. It truly is a great place to be when tropical weather is happening. We have some awesome mets, and also many who aren't actual mets, but know tons about tropical weather.
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Re:

#8033 Postby artist » Fri Aug 05, 2011 6:00 pm

rooster411 wrote:New member here. You guys really have some great discussions. Look forward to having this place to keep up with all the latest from this and future storms that might have an impact on us Florida folks.

welcome rooster! Glad to have you to join the conversation!
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Re: Re:

#8034 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 05, 2011 6:01 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
SouthDadeFish wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Putting the loop on and turning on the winds button there is some decent obs pointing towards a surface circ developing S of andros island.


Wouldn't surprise me with all that convergence going on in the area. I think the vortex we were tracking this morning out west got tugged at by all the convection to the east, and something is trying to spin up in that area. It will be hard to see the progress once the sun sets, but in my opinion we might have a weak LLC established by tomorrow morning. (Not a professional forecast)



yeah mentioned that a little while ago. The convection should build westward as time goes on tonight though ..


Plus the 200-300MB winds are blowing out of the east which should push some of the convection / cloud debris more to the west side of the system and may help generate convection there also.

Look at the high clouds blowing off to the west north of the system....
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#8035 Postby Vortex » Fri Aug 05, 2011 6:02 pm

Aric I think you nailed it..looks to be coming together just SE of Andros...Could go to TS pretty quickly if the trends continue and no reason they shouldnt..
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Re:

#8036 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 05, 2011 6:02 pm

Vortex wrote:Aric I think you nailed it..looks to be coming together just SE of Andros...Could go to TS pretty quickly if the trends continue and no reason they shouldnt..


Should they send recon tonight?
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Re:

#8037 Postby mutley » Fri Aug 05, 2011 6:04 pm

rooster411 wrote:New member here. You guys really have some great discussions. Look forward to having this place to keep up with all the latest from this and future storms that might have an impact on us Florida folks.


Welcome. 8-)
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Re:

#8038 Postby ozonepete » Fri Aug 05, 2011 6:04 pm

rooster411 wrote:New member here. You guys really have some great discussions. Look forward to having this place to keep up with all the latest from this and future storms that might have an impact on us Florida folks.


Welcome! Really glad you like it. Stick around - looks like Emily Part 2 (or Part 10,000 LOL) is about to begin. Enjoy it.
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#8039 Postby Vortex » Fri Aug 05, 2011 6:04 pm

Entirely possible we get an upgrade as early as 11pm back to TD...OR may go straight to TS on the 5am package..
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#8040 Postby boca » Fri Aug 05, 2011 6:06 pm

The weather from x-Emily looks like it will just miss us to the east.
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