ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[mutley]

I don't think she even had this much convergence when she was a full blown storm.

Could you give me a very simple definition of what "convergence" is exactly?

CONVERGENCE
Wind movement that results in a horizontal net inflow of air into a particular region. Convergent winds at lower levels are associated with upward motion. Contrast with divergence.

Thank you very much. Can I assume the thunderstorm activity in that area creates it?

[NDG]

I don't think she even had this much convergence when she was a full blown storm.

Could you give me a very simple definition of what "convergence" is exactly?

CONVERGENCE
Wind movement that results in a horizontal net inflow of air into a particular region. Convergent winds at lower levels are associated with upward motion. Contrast with divergence.

To add, a tropical cyclone needs surface convergence along with good upper level divergence to evacuate all that air to stay alive like it has right now, the more air in at the surface and air out in the ULs results in falling surface pressures, the the deeper, the stronger, on and on like a domino effect.

[artist]

latest radar loop from that area from Cuban radar -

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

[leanne_uk]

She seems to be getting her act together very quickly. Going to be an interesting few hours thats for sure.

This has to rank as the most frustrating yet crazy system in some time. So much learnt so far and it looks like some more lessons still to learn now.

[NDG]

She has found a break in the shear this afternoon, average near 10 knots in the suspect area.

[Aric Dunn]

persistence persistence persistence.. that convection must maintain long enough to produce a well defined surface circ.. a good 12 hours..

[plasticup]

GAH this is driving me insane. What a mess of a system.

[Aric Dunn]

She has found a break in the shear this afternoon, average near 10 knots in the suspect area.

and if you look at the setup... the upper divergence must be quite high. .with the flow heading SE and NW away from it.. very conducive more deep deep convection..

[mutley]

To add, a tropical cyclone needs surface convergence along with good upper level divergence to evacuate all that air to stay alive like it has right now, the more air in at the surface and air out in the ULs results in falling surface pressures, the the deeper, the stronger, on and on like a domino effect.

Thanks. It all makes perfect sense now. Duh, mutley.

[TheBurn]

She seems to be feedin' on some hi-octane fuel... popping big-time.

[NDG]

GAH this is driving me insane. What a mess of a system.

I agree, it has to maintain during the night, if it does, then tomorrow morning there should be a very distinct circulation and Emily back up to a TD or TS, SE of Miami.


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[Sanibel]

Dry air over us all day here. Not a good mix feeding into the NW quadrant.


WNW movement was an illusion. Movement is NNW on model tracks. Jumping back into form from the looks of it.

[KWT]

Not perfect synoptics but it maybe good enough, systems seem to generally do better on these N/NW tracks I've found.

Does look alot better, probably justifies a high risk chance of redevelopment...

Amazing how the system appears to be trying to redevelop...

[jlauderdal]

very likely a LLC is developing quite quickly just south of andros at about 23.41N 77.8W

Thats where I have it Aric..."quickly" is right.

we need a poll, how far west does it get 78.5, 79.5, landfall florida

[CourierPR]

Dry air over us all day here. Not a good mix feeding into the NW quadrant.


WNW movement was an illusion. Movement is NNW on model tracks. Jumping back into form from the looks of it.

According to local Met. David Bernard, movement is NW.

[gatorcane]

This could actually be a much bigger rain event for SE FL then we realized. I noticed NWS raised weekend POPS to 50% earlier today, but wouldn't surprise me if they are raised higher looking at the trends. That's alot of moisture and convection building and moving NW towards South Florida.

Since the system is not a deep system, should continue to head NW.

[cycloneye]

we need a poll

What about a quick poll about what % NHC will give the remnants at 8 PM TWO.

I go with 80%.

[CourierPR]

This could actually be a much bigger rain event for SE FL then we realized. I noticed NWS raised weekend POPS to 50% earlier today, but wouldn't surprise me if they are raised higher looking at the trends. That's alot of moisture and convection building and moving NW towards South Florida.

Dave Bernard said that tomorrow will be quite wet.

[Aric Dunn]

we need a poll

What about a quick poll about what % NHC will give the remnants at 8 PM TWO.

I go with 80%.

80

[gatorcane]

we need a poll

What about a quick poll about what % NHC will give the remnants at 8 PM TWO.

I go with 80%.

Agreed with words like "showing some signs of organization"