ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[ObsessedMiami]

If the cops told me there was a 60 percent chance of a criminal showing up in my neighborhood, I would be locking the doors.

[Gustywind]

yeah shes done...... finally lol

Finally is right...Maybe I can actually sleep tonight without model watching.

I kinda look at it this way...Don and Emily were kinda like preseason football games. They are just getting us warmed up for the real deal which is just around the corner. Rest while you can because soon we'll all be here putting in all nighters before too long.

Maybe a lack of exercice , and more push ups to these kind babies... Give them time, just a slow debut

[artist]

yeah shes done...... finally lol

Finally is right...Maybe I can actually sleep tonight without model watching.

I kinda look at it this way...Don and Emily were kinda like preseason football games. They are just getting us warmed up for the real deal which is just around the corner. Rest while you can because soon we'll all be here putting in all nighters before too long.

Maybe a lack of exercice , and more push ups to these kind babies... Give them time, just a slow debut

I just have to respond -
reminds me I better get some exercise before we possibly resume here shortly!

[artist]

if indeed it happpens, people are really gonna be caught off guard.

Ive seen stranger things happen, Jeanne was the classic case of this happening

yep and because of s2k we were prepared!

[Gustywind]

Should we say?

[lrak]

What would it take for a GOM scenario? Brownsville mets suggested this in their long rang afternoon forecast. They were talking about an open wave approaching but none of the long range models supported it. Come on into the GOM my darling.

[Kory]

What would it take for a GOM scenario? Brownsville mets suggested this in their long rang afternoon forecast. They were talking about an open wave approaching but none of the long range models supported it. Come on into the GOM my darling.

Very slim to no chance. Emily would have had to stay south of Cuba and WNW into the Gulf through the Yucatan channel. She's already way north of that...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wxman57]

Remember that Stacey Stewart does tend to go a lot higher than the other forecasters there as far as development potential. In my view, "marginally favorable for redevelopment" and "high chance" don't go together. I had estimated a 40% chance of redevelopment earlier this afternoon and thought I was being quite generous. It appears that the wave axis is moving steadily westward as storms over the DR diminish. There may not be much left by tomorrow to redevelop. As I look at it now, I'd give it maybe a 15% chance and dropping.

[lrak]

The visible reminds me of Don getting its first spinning look. A big turn is South of Cuba.

[Kory]

Remember that Stacey Stewart does tend to go a lot higher than the other forecasters there as far as development potential. In my view, "marginally favorable for redevelopment" and "high chance" don't go together. I had estimated a 40% chance of redevelopment earlier this afternoon and thought I was being quite generous. It appears that the wave axis is moving steadily westward as storms over the DR diminish. There may not be much left by tomorrow to redevelop. As I look at it now, I'd give it maybe a 15% chance and dropping.

I agree, its looking bad for Emily. Even all of her potent storms have diminished.

[cycloneye]

ATCF keeps tracking it.

00z Best Track

AL, 05, 2011080500, , BEST, 0, 196N, 732W, 25, 1010, WV

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[tailgater]

I'll be watching the near Jamicia for possible regeneration. Might blow up over nite, but this area should continue in a westward motion.

[img][/img]
Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Gustywind]

Whereas in spite of the shear and the dry air Emily has never give up.... doesn't she

Let's wait and see how the remnants could refire, as the deep tropics we never know...

[lrak]

I'll be watching the near Jamicia for possible regeneration. Might blow up over nite, but this area should continue in a westward motion.

[img][/img]
Uploaded with ImageShack.us

thats where I would put its best chances too.

[cycloneye]

The Tropical Models at 00z are still running for the remnants.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 050046
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0046 UTC FRI AUG 5 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE EMILY (AL052011) 20110805 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110805  0000   110805  1200   110806  0000   110806  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.6N  73.2W   21.5N  75.4W   23.3N  76.6W   24.9N  77.6W
BAMD    19.6N  73.2W   20.9N  74.8W   21.8N  76.3W   22.6N  77.8W
BAMM    19.6N  73.2W   21.1N  75.0W   22.4N  76.4W   23.5N  77.7W
LBAR    19.6N  73.2W   21.2N  74.8W   22.7N  76.4W   24.0N  77.7W
SHIP        25KTS          26KTS          32KTS          35KTS
DSHP        25KTS          26KTS          32KTS          35KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110807  0000   110808  0000   110809  0000   110810  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    26.6N  77.8W   29.9N  75.7W   33.7N  68.9W   35.7N  57.7W
BAMD    23.2N  79.2W   23.4N  81.5W   22.9N  83.6W   22.9N  85.9W
BAMM    24.6N  78.5W   25.8N  78.8W   26.9N  77.2W   28.9N  75.0W
LBAR    25.3N  78.5W   27.2N  78.6W   29.1N  76.3W   30.9N  72.3W
SHIP        41KTS          46KTS          49KTS          54KTS
DSHP        41KTS          46KTS          49KTS          54KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  19.6N LONCUR =  73.2W DIRCUR = 325DEG SPDCUR =  11KT
LATM12 =  17.2N LONM12 =  71.7W DIRM12 = 310DEG SPDM12 =   9KT
LATM24 =  16.9N LONM24 =  70.7W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   45KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


Uploaded by Imageshack.us

[underthwx]

I'm out of the loop on Emily what's the prognosis with what's left of the system?

[cycloneye]

I'm out of the loop on Emily what's the prognosis with what's left of the system?

The 8 PM TWO summarises what to expect.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM EMILY ARE LOCATED OVER
HISPANIOLA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.
THE LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS AT
10 TO 15 MPH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE BY SATURDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Tropics Guy]

Best chance for regen will either be where BEST TRACK has the low @ 19.6 /73.2 already some weak convection popping there., also will be interesting to see what happens when the MLC ,which still has a good circulation, hits the north coast near the border of Haiti/DR in a few hrs.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

TG

[Kory]

trends this evening further west by some of the guidance....IMO, I expect regeneration tomorrow and near hurricane strength 30-50 miles east of South Florida Saturday evening...

I smell -removed-. But in all seriousness, it looks pathetic and the LLC, if there is one, is no where near the MLC. The MLC is moving due north from Hispaniola. This is like beating a dead horse...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[AdamFirst]

Most 18z models showing regeneration...but that of course excludes the Euro, the "big winner" as Avila put it.