ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[CourierPR]

GCANE, for those who may not know the terms,what is Ascent?

Is that upward motion of the air?

[GCANE]

TRMM tagged a good hot-tower about 2 hrs ago.

Also looks like a feeder band setting up, wrapping from the west to the south and into the core.

They are sprinkled with small hot-towers as well.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041116
AF305 1105A EMILY HDOB 14 20110804
110630 1716N 07214W 8429 01566 0080 +188 +158 055022 023 034 002 03
110700 1717N 07215W 8430 01567 0080 +191 +159 048019 020 033 003 00
110730 1717N 07216W 8429 01567 0075 +198 +159 031014 015 033 001 03
110800 1718N 07218W 8428 01571 0076 +198 +161 039014 015 032 002 03
110830 1719N 07219W 8429 01568 0077 +196 +162 046016 017 029 003 00
110900 1720N 07221W 8429 01571 0080 +193 +164 051017 018 028 003 00
110930 1721N 07222W 8430 01569 0082 +192 +165 054017 017 027 003 00
111000 1722N 07224W 8430 01571 0082 +191 +165 056015 016 028 003 00
111030 1723N 07226W 8429 01571 0085 +190 +166 061015 016 031 002 00
111100 1724N 07227W 8426 01577 0089 +185 +166 065018 020 029 003 00
111130 1725N 07229W 8431 01568 0091 +179 +165 069020 020 028 003 00
111200 1726N 07230W 8430 01571 0093 +175 +164 072020 021 030 003 00
111230 1727N 07232W 8429 01571 0092 +177 +162 072019 021 029 006 00
111300 1727N 07232W 8429 01571 0088 +180 +160 072018 019 031 007 00
111330 1728N 07235W 8430 01567 0089 +177 +157 076019 020 029 007 00
111400 1729N 07236W 8430 01569 0093 +175 +155 078019 020 031 007 00
111430 1730N 07238W 8429 01572 0095 +175 +152 078020 020 033 006 03
111500 1731N 07240W 8431 01569 0095 +174 +150 076019 019 032 006 00
111530 1732N 07241W 8429 01567 0089 +176 +148 074017 017 033 006 03
111600 1732N 07243W 8426 01569 0088 +176 +147 067015 016 /// /// 03
$$
;

[GCANE]

GCANE, for those who may not know the terms,what is Ascent?

Is that upward motion of the air?

Yes, it is the vertical motion of the air.

[Blown Away]

5am Disco:

THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII DO NOT REQUIRE A WATCH FOR
SOUTHERN FLORIDA AT THIS TIME. IF EMILY DOES NOT BEGIN ITS
NORTHWESTWARD TURN SOON...A WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER TODAY.

11pm Wednesday Disco:

IF A NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION DOES NOT BEGIN
SOON...OR THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE LEFT IN FUTURE
CYCLES...THE THREAT TO FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL INCREASE.

5pm Wednesday Disco:

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL
ASSUMES THAT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY
TO TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...IF THE
NORTHWARD TURN DOES NOT BEGIN SOON...THE THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL INCREASE.

Keep waiting for this northward motion, when is it to late for the SE CONUS?

[hurricanedude]

80w and it would certainly be a hit for someone on the SE Coast

[mutley]

5am Disco:

THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII DO NOT REQUIRE A WATCH FOR
SOUTHERN FLORIDA AT THIS TIME. IF EMILY DOES NOT BEGIN ITS
NORTHWESTWARD TURN SOON...A WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER TODAY.

11pm Wednesday Disco:

IF A NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION DOES NOT BEGIN
SOON...OR THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE LEFT IN FUTURE
CYCLES...THE THREAT TO FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL INCREASE.

5pm Wednesday Disco:

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL
ASSUMES THAT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY
TO TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...IF THE
NORTHWARD TURN DOES NOT BEGIN SOON...THE THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL INCREASE.

Keep waiting for this northward motion, when is it to late for the SE CONUS?

That's funny. Next one might say "THANK GOD IT'S TURNING!"

[hurricanedude]

I still think it touches the SE Fl coast....but not a complete landfall...then I still doubt the quick NE movement so I think Eastern, NC may get a brush!

[Gustywind]

Storm Emily: 1.647 evacuees in Dominican Republic http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 121236.php
AFP04.08.2011

Some people threatened by floods 1.647 have been evacuated from their homes Wednesday in Dominican Republic because of the heavy rainfall caused by the storm tropical Emily, said rescue services. -Erika Santelices (AFP)

Some people threatened by floods 1.647 have been evacuated from their homes Wednesday in Dominican Republic because of the heavy rainfall caused by the storm tropical Emily, said rescue services.

"A total of 1.647 displaced people, 642 found refuge in official buildings and 1.005 in family or among friends", said the emergency operations Centre.

The majority of the evacuations took place in the South of the country, the more exposed to the tropical storm, according to the same source.

The Dominican Republic placed in maximum cyclonic alert (red alert) Tuesday six provinces and in a State of vigilance preventive seven other regions. The Dominican authorities have also suspended recreation on all the coasts and rivers of the country.

The authorities of the neighbouring country of Haiti also decreed Tuesday morning warning red on the whole of the territory and called the inhabitants to leave areas at risk.

Emily could lead to 15-30 cm of precipitation, floods and dangerous mudslides in Haiti and Dominican Republic, have warned us experts.

Emily made a victim by electrocution Tuesday on the French island of Martinique. Firefighters found a 62 year man lying in the water, an extension cord in hand, at his home in the popular district Volga of Fort-de-France, which is flooded.

[NDG]

Well, what a curved ball Emily is throwing at us this morning, with her barely moving during the night.
Per the last recon fix it looks like she has been moving almost due west at 280 deg heading during the past 5-6 hrs at around 7 miles an hour.
I think I give up on what to think, Emily could get pulled northward by the next trough well east of FL or she can just stay in a low latitude and keep moving westward towards the Yucatan, who knows.
But I do think is looking better for FL this morning, if indeed the 06z tropical model runs were the output from the information fed to them by the data collected by the NOAA plane.

[GCANE]

That hot-tower close to the LLC is pushing out "gravity" waves to the east - powerful!

[cycloneye]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It doesn't look like Emily is moving much, looks likes she is just sitting there trying to have consolidation. If she is not further north by this afternoon at the 5 PM EDT advisory, I think the cone will have to shift left and Jamaica should get TS watches or warnings by that time.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041126
AF305 1105A EMILY HDOB 15 20110804
111630 1731N 07243W 8429 01567 0091 +171 +147 076014 015 029 007 03
111700 1729N 07243W 8429 01567 0089 +175 +147 075013 013 030 006 00
111730 1727N 07242W 8430 01566 0087 +179 +146 070011 011 028 007 00
111800 1726N 07242W 8431 01564 0085 +185 +144 053010 010 030 007 00
111830 1724N 07242W 8430 01567 0087 +182 +144 049009 009 030 007 03
111900 1722N 07242W 8429 01568 0088 +180 +144 056008 009 031 007 00
111930 1721N 07241W 8431 01566 0088 +180 +143 037007 008 031 007 00
112000 1719N 07241W 8429 01567 0089 +176 +142 030006 006 030 007 00
112030 1717N 07241W 8430 01567 0093 +173 +141 041006 006 031 007 00
112100 1716N 07240W 8429 01567 0094 +170 +140 030005 006 031 008 00
112130 1714N 07240W 8429 01568 0096 +169 +138 036007 007 030 008 00
112200 1712N 07240W 8430 01567 0095 +169 +136 031009 010 028 008 00
112230 1711N 07239W 8432 01566 0094 +170 +133 027010 010 030 007 00
112300 1709N 07239W 8429 01566 0094 +168 +132 020010 010 031 008 00
112330 1707N 07239W 8432 01564 0092 +172 +130 015010 011 029 008 03
112400 1705N 07238W 8429 01567 0093 +171 +129 022012 012 028 009 03
112430 1704N 07238W 8427 01567 0094 +169 +128 028012 013 /// /// 03
112500 1704N 07236W 8434 01561 0094 +169 +128 034011 012 031 007 03
112530 1704N 07235W 8428 01568 0093 +170 +128 031010 010 031 008 00
112600 1704N 07233W 8430 01564 0092 +173 +128 028009 010 031 008 03
$$
;

[NDG]

000
URNT12 KNHC 041119
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052011
A. 04/10:58:00Z
B. 17 deg 04 min N
071 deg 49 min W
C. 850 mb 1463 m
D. 44 kt
E. 079 deg 17 nm
F. 156 deg 52 kt
G. 053 deg 14 nm
H. 1005 mb
I. 17 C / 1498 m
J. 19 C / 1524 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF305 1105A EMILY OB 02
MAX FL WIND 52 KT SE QUAD 10:50:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 007 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR

[CourierPR]

Is that dark spot near 16.2 N and 71.5 W the center?

[jlauderdal]

bamms staying with the westward, gulf-bound solution this morning. one says hello to Tampa Bay even, aka a Charlie-like path.
Emily better make that turn asap. -cuz I have some Rays games to go to this weekend! (Seeing the GoGo's after Friday's game. )

goo goo dolls after saturdays according to the rather large sign behind home plate last night

[hurricanefloyd5]

she looks to be moving westward still http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

[artist]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 041118
XXAA 54118 99170 70718 04471 99005 25814 25008 00044 25417 23508
92729 21821 21508 85463 ///// 03505 88999 77999
31313 09608 81058
61616 AF305 1105A EMILY OB 03
62626 SPL 1705N07183W 1100 MBL WND 22509 AEV 20802 DLM WND 22004
004843 WL150 23008 084 REL 1705N07183W 105820 SPG 1706N07182W 105
958 =
XXBB 54118 99170 70718 04471 00005 25814 11875 20628
21212 00005 25008 11973 22010 22914 22507 33889 00000 44874 08002
55843 03506
31313 09608 81058
61616 AF305 1105A EMILY OB 03
62626 SPL 1705N07183W 1100 MBL WND 22509 AEV 20802 DLM WND 22004
004843 WL150 23008 084 REL 1705N07183W 105820 SPG 1706N07182W 105
958 =
;

[crownweather]

I just posted our latest thoughts on Tropical Storm Emily at http://www.crownweather.com/?p=6584 . My thinking is that it'll track within 50 miles or so from the east coast of Florida.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Decoded VDM.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 11:19Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2011
Storm Name: Emily (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 11
Observation Number: 02
A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 10:58:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°04'N 71°49'W (17.0667N 71.8167W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 107 miles (173 km) to the SSE (161°) from Port-au-Prince, Haiti.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,463m (4,800ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 44kts (~ 50.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the ENE/E (79°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 156° at 52kts (From the SSE at ~ 59.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the NE (53°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,498m (4,915ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 52kts (~ 59.8mph) in the southeast quadrant at 10:50:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 20°C (68°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the N (7°) from the flight level center