ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Riptide]

It is clearly on it's way to cane status. The only obstacle is Hispaniola.

[hurricanedude]

I think it would have to crank up to 60-65 MPH to even consider hurricane watch for south FL
with that said Hurricane watches will be most likely need for for the area from roughly Little River Inlet SC to Smith point Va sometime this weekend if the west trend continues

[brunota2003]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Been watching Emily for a while now...I think Recon is going to find some interesting things when they visit again later this morning. I am on dial-up and cannot see any loops and what not, but if the centers have stacked, I could see a rapid 20 knot increase occurring if Emily has not gotten too close to land. DMAX is a nightmare, and would aid in that. My best guess on winds before landfall/disruption by Haiti/Cuba are from 55 to 65 knots...but I feel 60 to 65 knots more likely.

She's still extremely lopsided. Weak TS's rarely strengthen rapidly because they're just that--poorly organized.

But weak TS's can also reform their LLCs (or "pull" them to the convection)...especially when very deep convection is involved. Hence why I think Recon will find some surprises.

[psyclone]

Emily is doing great tonight. I can't help but think, if recon finds that Emily is strengthening modestly, while strengthening isn't even forecasted for the next 12 hours, could a Hurricane watch and not a TS watch be possible for SFL? I know its unlikely, and I don't want to create empty hype, but if Emily strengthens before the Islands, anyone think it could be a possibility?

if emily remains lopsided, weak and poorly organized, the center could probably get pretty close to the east coast with minimal effects. i continue to believe the key is what the storm looks like after it has cleared the greater antilles.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Sanibel]

It's kind of strange not seeing a system hauling through the Caribbean westward.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

A look at the water vapor loop shows a high pressure area moving eastward
through GA/AL and the trough over the Bahamas. I have been watching to
see if that trough turns emily to the north...but it has not done that yet.
What concerns me is the ridge that is quickly building in and moving over
GA/AL...notice the flow of clouds from NE to SW rapidly over the FL Peninsula,
and the clockwise rotation around the ridge. The trough should influence
Emily soon, but with the ridge building rapidly in, I am getting
concerned that the cyclone may go further west and get
closer to Florida's East Coast/SE Florida. But then again,
the trough is evident and if it influences Emily then Emily may
go further East. I am NOT an expert,
but this is my analysis.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

[hurricanedude]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1143 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2011

...EMILY FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED CLOSER TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
THIS WEEKEND...

.UPDATE...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS SHIFTED THE 72 HOUR FORECAST
POINT WESTWARD ABOUT 30 MILES FOR SATURDAY EVENING. THIS HAS PUSHED
THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS INTO MOST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND GUSTS UP TO TROPICAL FORCE
INTO ALL OF PALM BEACH AND METRO BROWARD COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT.
SO WILL INTRODUCE POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE ZONES
OF PALM BEACH AND METRO BROWARD COUNTIES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
CONE OF UNCERTAINLY HAS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE WEST DUE TO THE
TRACK SHIFTING WEST WHICH NOW COVERS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO AT
THIS TIME ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA NEEDS TO CONTINUE TO PAY ATTENTION
TO THE LATEST FORECAST ON EMILY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER, AND THE LOCAL FORECAST FROM US FOR THIS WEEKEND, IN CASE
THE TRACK SHIFTS MORE WESTWARD.

[ROCK]

Hasn't the Euro been pretty consistent with this storm instead of the GFS? Just askin before I get my head chewed off


And then there's Rock's favorite model the NAM.....

NAM been pretty good so far this year......got to admit....

[summersquall]

PALM BEACH GARDENS, Fla. -- Tropical Storm Emily could come to Florida as a hurricane, WPBF 25 severe weather expert Mike Lyons says.

Read more: http://www.wpbf.com/weather/28733798/de ... z1U1yWxXTL


I've been watching the Emily threads intently. I did my part today to ward off Emily by getting groceries and gas. Just heard a gentleman from Miami-Dade Emergency Management on WPB radio recommending that now is the time for people to prepare (ie groceries, home improvement store and gas) but he didn't mention exactly what should be prepared for.

[HURAKAN]

RECON will tell the real story, not infrared or water vapor images. That's my opinion.

[SouthFLTropics]

I know this is a bit off topic but has anyone seen Ivanhater today? Seems a bit wierd to not see him in here dont ya think?

[Bocadude85]

If you want, here is a link to the 850mb vorticity...


http://tinyurl.com/3dy3fsm

You can track it better here. It's not an open wave...

What part of that is Emily? I'm tracking the vorticity entering the FL straits from Cuba as what's left of Emily. Is Emily the strong vorticity in the Central Bahamas?

Look at this and watch the open wave lines that come from the opened Emily:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

lol I am confused.. have you figured out what is what?

[crimi481]

Once again it appears we do have "Twins" - 2 centers (possible mid and low) that are rotating around eachother.
Seen this lots lately

Like Twin Engines. It will need time for both engines to strenghthen over open water. ( which it has - as its crawling)
Theres been 2 lows from get-go, Trying to gel now (and stop fighting each other)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/bd-l.jpg

[Sanibel]

I think Emily may have stalled and tucked the center under the convection in a blow-up. This stall is probably the precursor to a turn so it will probably get wrecked on Hispaniola in any case. Could be bad rain problems in store for them.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Evil Jeremy]

48 hour low pressure frame:

As strong as the vorticity is on SouthFloridawx's picture, it doesn't translate here. Emily is an open wave, dispersed tropical energy. But what area is to be tracked as Emily?

[ROCK]

The 0z NOGAPS drags this over Hispa and out...in 72hrs

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[crimi481]

You can see both lows doing the "dance" around eachother
Loop
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-bd.html

[itsahurricane]

I think Emily may have stalled and tucked the center under the convection in a blow-up. This stall is probably the precursor to a turn so it will probably get wrecked on Hispaniola in any case. Could be bad rain problems in store for them.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It's going to keep traversing West. NHC has been skidding all over the place with this storm.

[ROCK]

42 hour low pressure frame:

As strong as the vorticity is on SouthFloridawx's picture, it doesn't translate here. Emily is an open wave, dispersed tropical energy. But what area is to be tracked as Emily?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042m.gif

the GFS has been doing this all year....track the 850mb vorticity....

[ObsessedMiami]

People have been saying the turn is just about to occur since last night.