ATL: EMILY - Remnants

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Kohlecane
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6741 Postby Kohlecane » Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:29 pm

TexasF6 wrote:The LLC is tucked under that new convection...she is sitting there, not moving...IMO...Kohlecane, did you see the LLC circulation when you saw the storm in motion? Its difficult to see...this storm is an enigma :flag:

Kohlecane wrote:well, from what i have been watching in the Sat Vis. it looks to me a shift more to the NW watch last few frames.

Absolutely, i see what you're talking about, good eyes never really kept an eye on the LLC. good looks
.
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#6742 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:29 pm

Well if its barely moving and shear has decreased quite a bit, id say she certainly does have a chance of strengthening to a 60-65 mph storm before she reaches Haiti. This would influence how strong she will be when shes out of the Caribbean. But...

THIS IS ONLY MY OPINION... Happy tracking. :D 8-) :P :)
Last edited by HurricaneWarning92 on Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6743 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:29 pm

Wow what a nice convective blow up we are seeing this evening on satellite imagery. It would be so nice if this was sitting over all of TX right now... Instead we are left with 100-110 degree temperatures and NO rain in sight. :cry: :cry:
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#6744 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:29 pm

the crazy thing is.. I see a hook in the "CDO" developing on the western side of the convection.. meaning the mid level and LLC are stacked... and can see some banding features...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#6745 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:30 pm

I thought we would have some updated model runs starting to come in, am I off on the time they run?
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6746 Postby Blown Away » Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:30 pm

Local WPB Met says the continued W movement and the longer Emily takes to start moving N will increase a SFL landfall.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#6747 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:32 pm

:uarrow:
0z GFS begins updating in 5 mins and all of the others will update within the next 3 hours.
Last edited by South Texas Storms on Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#6748 Postby Vortex » Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:32 pm

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:I thought we would have some updated model runs starting to come in, am I off on the time they run?



00z GFS starts rolling in 5 minutes....
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Re:

#6749 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:32 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:the crazy thing is.. I see a hook in the "CDO" developing on the western side of the convection.. meaning the mid level and LLC are stacked... and can see some banding features...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html


I think shes getting tired of being weak all this time, and wants to show us what shes capable of :eek:
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#6750 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:32 pm

GFS should be starting in the next 5 mins
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#6751 Postby Gustywind » Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:33 pm

Any news about the weather conditions in Haiti? I'm a bit worry about them as Emily is not too far from their area.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6752 Postby TexasF6 » Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:33 pm

IMO, a possible center relocation south&east, weeble-wobble and bombing CDO tonight give a NW movement illusion, but it is just the rotation of the convection....and then moving west at 4mph per the nhc 11pm advisory... :flag:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#6753 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:33 pm

Vortex wrote:
Miami Storm Tracker wrote:I thought we would have some updated model runs starting to come in, am I off on the time they run?



00z GFS starts rolling in 5 minutes....


Grabbing popcorn and a cold beer...Been waiting for this run! Let's see if the trend stays left. What will the GFS throw at us this time?

SFT
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Re:

#6754 Postby CourierPR » Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:34 pm

[quote="Aric Dunn"]the crazy thing is.. I see a hook in the "CDO" developing on the western side of the convection.. meaning the mid level and LLC are stacked... and can see some banding features...

You're right , Aric. It's looking good tonight and that's probably gonna be bad for a lot of folks.


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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#6755 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:35 pm

Thought so,

Thanks everyone
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6756 Postby Kohlecane » Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:37 pm

and now my computer is being an anti-Emily fan, so I'm stuck on this and the WV loop, but can anyone tell whether the dry air is moving west at this point or is diminishing
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#6757 Postby storm4u » Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:39 pm

threw hr12 gfs is alot farther south and slower
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#6758 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:43 pm

Open wave @ 21hrs...
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#6759 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:43 pm

18 hours, same spot as 18z run. Makes a huge jump north between the 12 and 18 hour frames.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#6760 Postby lonelymike » Wed Aug 03, 2011 10:43 pm

Hasn't the Euro been pretty consistent with this storm instead of the GFS? Just askin before I get my head chewed off :)


And then there's Rock's favorite model the NAM..... :wink:
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