ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[SouthFLTropics]

I don't think anyone posted the NOAA 12z HWRF 3 km from 12z, Will be interesting t see the 18z run since this ones it up the spine of the peninsula.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrf-noaahfiptc2.cgi?time=2011080312-invest97e&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

That is for the Epac system...97E I think...

[gatorcane]

Looking at the NHC track, the only model that is east of their 5pmEST track is the GFS, but barely...and a few of the GFS ensembles....the rest of them are west...and I think the GFS is suffering from the same issue it suffered with Don and it is too far east. The TVCN track looks like where I think they will put it for the 11pmEST advisory.

[ronjon]

I don't think anyone posted the NOAA 12z HWRF 3 km from 12z, Will be interesting t see the 18z run since this ones it up the spine of the peninsula.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrf-noaahfiptc2.cgi?time=2011080312-invest97e&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

That is for the Epac system...97E I think...

Opps fixed it now

[SunnyThoughts]

I don't think I can take 2 blobs again! haha j/k

[Air Force Met]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Based on the latest models, the NHC is very likely to shift the cone back towards the west and I expect the "line" to be very close to the East Coast of Florida maybe not that far east of Palm Beach....very reminiscent of Hurricane David in 1979 with the track.

Oddly enough, if you look at their first cone they issued, that is where they had it. A hurricane in the Bahamas is not out of the question, especially if Emily passes the big islands with a good structure and some convection. SSTs are very warm and if the upper-level winds are calm, it could defintely strengthen in a hurry like the HWRF and GFDL are showing.

Just a point of clarification: the cone is the line. Where the line goes...the cone follows based on the 2/3 Probability Circle for each forecast point.

[ObsessedMiami]

CHannel 7 WSVN cranking up the hype machine. 4 reporters covering everything. Phil Ferro is reporting the center is exposed at this moment! Phil is downplaying it overall, incredibly.

[CourierPR]

Back in '64, Hurricane Cleo weakened to a tropical storm as it crossed Cuba but strengthened to a Cat 2 before striking South Florida.

[HURAKAN]

Emily the Enigma ... that's my title for her!

[cpdaman]

Gator ...what do u infer when u say resume a more wnw/nw motion....she really hasnt had one for a while ....at least not close to nw

[cpdaman]

Is there signifigant. Potential for RI?

[gatorcane]

Gator ...what do u infer when u say resume a more wnw/nw motion....she really hasnt had one for a while ....at least not close to nw

I thought she turned some to the NW earlier this evening before she became stationary..based on a few RECON fixes.

[stormreader]

The storm seems to have gotten it's act together somewhat; now it has to survive some land interaction and it may be a big time player. I am not sold at all to the idea of an early recurve at all however, even before her naming i've always suspected that the storm may ride through the straights or hug cuba, before considering the models and trends.

Me too. Thought that way early on and still think it is a distinct possibility.

[Bobo2000]

SOME DEEP CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER THIS AFTERNOON...
AND DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CURRENTLY IN EMILY
INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KNOTS...WITH A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1003 MB. WIND SHEAR IS STILL AFFECTING THE
CYCLONE...BUT GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE
THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

[CourierPR]

The trough has stopped digging down, as seen on this WV loop. You can see the line of clouds extending from South FL out through the Central Bahamas stopping progressing south. Look at that Upper-level windflow East of FL...you can see the winds are blowing from the east in the upper layers of the atmosphere

Emily is definitely feeling the weakness passing by now to the NNE...but that should be temporary and a WNW or NW movement should resume as some ridging builds back in to the N and NE of Emily (remember we reached max troughiness today on the trough). That is what the models are picking up on I think.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

Huh?

[stormreader]

The trough has stopped digging down, as seen on this WV loop. You can see the line of clouds extending from South FL out through the Central Bahamas stopping progressing south. Look at that Upper-level windflow East of FL...you can see the winds are blowing from the east in the upper layers of the atmosphere

Emily is definitely feeling the weakness passing by now to the NNE...but that should be temporary and a WNW or NW movement should resume as some ridging builds back in to the N and NE of Emily (remember we reached max troughiness today on the trough). That is what the models are picking up on I think.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

Thats it. And Like you said its obvious on WV. Supposedly after the ridging builds back in a new weakness will develop which will take the storm north and east just east of Fl. I am skeptical about the timing of this (think it might be delayed) which is why I look for more model shifts west toward the Keys-Everglades region along the W Coast of Fl.

[SunnyThoughts]

Jim Cantore from the weather channel said as emily keeps moving westward, the cone may have to include the gulf as well. Guess thats what most people have been thinking because of the west, west and then west movement for so long.

[SouthFLTropics]

Jim Cantore from the weather channel said as emily keeps moving westward, the cone may have to include the gulf as well. Guess thats what most people have been thinking because of the west, west and then west movement for so long.

Just let me know when Cantore loads up the van and heads this way. That's when I know it's coming.

Remember the days before 2004 or 2005 when anytime Cantore would show up you knew it wasn't coming because he never was able to get into a storm? That all changed in 04 and 05...He got his fair share then!

[jlauderdal]

I was supposed to move to Miami Friday, but I guess that's a no.

minimal action if any until saturday, i highly suggest you move friday so you can be at ground zero for anything that might happen

[tolakram]

Back to MIMIC-TPW

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html


Northwest movement has begun, looks like it (MLC anyway) may be moving over Hispaniola soon.

[CourierPR]

What some are interpreting as Emily feeling the weakness is, as Aric Dunn posted earlier, Emily getting better organized. I don't believe the forward motion will be a true NW-- maybe W to WNW.