ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[artist]

What i dont understand is now models intensify this storm to around a 90 mph + cyclone near the Bahamas/Florida when in previous runs they showed little intensification. How is this possible. Can a 50 mph storm intensify that quick in what seems less than a day? Even after it is most likely to weaken after crossing a bit of Haiti/Cuba?

here is some on Charley for you to see how quickly they can strengthen in the right conditions -

This caused the hurricane to pass over the Dry Tortugas at 8:00 a.m. EDT (1200 UTC) on August 13, with maximum winds of about 110 mph (177 km/h).[1][3] The strike occurred only 22 hours after Tropical Storm Bonnie made landfall on St. Vincent Island; this marks the first time two tropical cyclones hit the same state within a 24-hour period.[4] At this time, Charley rapidly intensified, strengthening from a 110 mph (175 km/h) hurricane with a minimum central barometric pressure of 965 mbar (hPa; 28.50 inHg) to a 145 mph (230 km/h) hurricane with a pressure of 947 mbar (hPa; 27.64 inHg) in just three hours. The storm continued to strengthen as it turned more to the northeast, and made landfall near the island of Cayo Costa, Florida as a 150 mph (240 km/h) Category 4 hurricane with a pressure of 941 mbar (hPa; 27.49 inHg) at approximately 3:45 p.m. EDT (1945 UTC) on the 13th

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Charley
so from 8am that morning until 3:45 that afternoon he had increased speed by 40 miles per hour.

[jhpigott]

Ugh . . . I feel like I'm in a little bind here. Located in North Palm Beach (about 10 miles north of West Palm Beach) less than 1/2 mile inland. I'm supposed to hop in the car with my family and head up to the N. Georgia mountains for a much needed vacation tomorrow evening. We are staying at my in-laws vacation home up there.

Fortunately, I've got impact/storm glass and not too much in the way of patio furniture or other items I would need to secure at my house. However, my in-laws left earlier today (they live in the area down here - Palm Beach Gardens) and only put up about half their shutters before they left and didn't pull any of their patio furniture in. On top of that - my father and I have our own business with our own little office building in North Palm Beach just a block from the intracoastal waterway. Our office building took a beating during Wilma (lots of roof and water damage) and we spent almost 6 months working out of our homes while the damage was repaired. Looking at the model trends I think I may need to stick around an extra day and finishing securing my in-laws place and help my dad get things ready at the office before I go. Crud . . . .

[GCANE]

Looking much better on the IR with every passing hour....She certainly appears to be organizing..

Really starting to spin on WV too.

She had a lot of pent up latent heat in her all day from the long duration hot tower that she fired early this morning.

I think she is finally cutting loose.

PV column is expanding vertically as the core rebounds.

This latest hot tower may have done the trick.

[TwisterFanatic]

What i dont understand is now models intensify this storm to around a 90 mph + cyclone near the Bahamas/Florida when in previous runs they showed little intensification. How is this possible. Can a 50 mph storm intensify that quick in what seems less than a day? Even after it is most likely to weaken after crossing a bit of Haiti/Cuba?

Models are forecasting a very favorable environment north of Haiti/DR, so anything is possible, but the models predicting a Cat 2+ Hurricane heading towards Florida are probably not realistic, but it all depends what part of Haiti is goes over.

So that means it is expected to move very slowly north of Haiti right? Because if it moves fairly quickly then it wont have time to intensify. So im guessing this would have to happen.

I don't think it's supposed to move at a blistering pace, but I don't see it strengthening as much as some models say, but I've been wrong before.

[stayawaynow]

JLauderdal, are you going to fire up the generator for a test run tomorrow??

I have been asking him to do this for days. He did it before Ike. It seems to help keep the storms from SE FL.

[wzrgirl1]

Anyone have a link to a recent IR or Water Vapor loop please? Thanks!

[NDG]

Here's a closer look on the 0z TVCN concensus model forecast track, it brings Emily within 30 miles of northern Palm Beach County Saturday evening.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Based on the latest models, the NHC is very likely to shift the cone back towards the west and I expect the "line" to be very close to the East Coast of Florida maybe not that far east of Palm Beach....very reminiscent of Hurricane David in 1979 with the track.

Oddly enough, if you look at their first cone they issued, that is where they had it. A hurricane in the Bahamas is not out of the question, especially if Emily passes the big islands with a good structure and some convection. SSTs are very warm and if the upper-level winds are calm, it could defintely strengthen in a hurry like the HWRF and GFDL are showing.

[Vortex]

Looking much better on the IR with every passing hour....She certainly appears to be organizing..

Can you send a link please?

Just one of many..From Nasa..

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

[artist]

Ugh . . . I feel like I'm in a little bind here. Located in North Palm Beach (about 10 miles north of West Palm Beach) less than 1/2 mile inland. I'm supposed to hop in the car with my family and head up to the N. Georgia mountains for a much needed vacation tomorrow evening. We are staying at my in-laws vacation home up there.

Fortunately, I've got impact/storm glass and not too much in the way of patio furniture or other items I would need to secure at my house. However, my in-laws left earlier today (they live in the area down here - Palm Beach Gardens) and only put up about half their shutters before they left and didn't pull any of their patio furniture in. On top of that - my father and I have our own business with our own little office building in North Palm Beach just a block from the intracoastal waterway. Our office building took a beating during Wilma (lots of roof and water damage) and we spent almost 6 months working out of our homes while the damage was repaired. Looking at the model trends I think I may need to stick around an extra day and finishing securing my in-laws place and help my dad get things ready at the office before I go. Crud . . . .

that is truly a tough one. Ain't timing just great sometimes?? Anyway, hope you can get it all secured and still have time for a wonderful vacation as well.

[WeatherEmperor]

Do you guys think the westward shift from the 18Z GFDL, HWRF and GFS was in response to the continued westward motion by Emily earlier this afternoon? She was already supposed to be turning WNW but continued west for longer than expected. Could this have contributed to the shift?

[Vortex]

Looking much better on the IR with every passing hour....She certainly appears to be organizing..

Really starting to spin on WV too.

She had a lot of pent up latent heat in her all day from the long duration hot tower that she fired early this morning.

I think she is finally cutting loose.

PV column is expanding vertically as the core rebounds.

This latest hot tower may have done the trick.

Certainly appears that way....Btw, keep up the nice work!!

[GCANE]

Anyone have a link to a recent IR or Water Vapor loop please? Thanks!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float2.html

[SapphireSea]

The storm seems to have gotten it's act together somewhat; now it has to survive some land interaction and it may be a big time player. I am not sold at all to the idea of an early recurve at all however, even before her naming i've always suspected that the storm may ride through the straights or hug cuba, before considering the models and trends.

[Blown Away]

Has the upper level data sampled N of Hispaniola been posted??

[GCANE]

Looking much better on the IR with every passing hour....She certainly appears to be organizing..

Really starting to spin on WV too.

She had a lot of pent up latent heat in her all day from the long duration hot tower that she fired early this morning.

I think she is finally cutting loose.

PV column is expanding vertically as the core rebounds.

This latest hot tower may have done the trick.

Certainly appears that way....Btw, keep up the nice work!!

Thanks Vortex, you too. Always enjoy your posts. Hope you are doing well!

[cycloneye]

The next mission departs at 11:15 PM EDT.

Code: Select all

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 70   
       A. 05/0600Z,1200Z           
       B. AFXXX 1305A EMILYE     
       C. 05/0315Z                 
       D. 22.0N 75.7W             
       E. 05/0530Z TO 05/1130Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT 

[Texashawk]

So, the hot question is... Will we see a first-ever 90+ degree turn plot between points on a NHC track? Something's gotta give, and so far it sure hasn't been the NHC...

[Bobo2000]

I was supposed to move to Miami Friday, but I guess that's a no.

[jhpigott]

Ugh . . . I feel like I'm in a little bind here. Located in North Palm Beach (about 10 miles north of West Palm Beach) less than 1/2 mile inland. I'm supposed to hop in the car with my family and head up to the N. Georgia mountains for a much needed vacation tomorrow evening. We are staying at my in-laws vacation home up there.

Fortunately, I've got impact/storm glass and not too much in the way of patio furniture or other items I would need to secure at my house. However, my in-laws left earlier today (they live in the area down here - Palm Beach Gardens) and only put up about half their shutters before they left and didn't pull any of their patio furniture in. On top of that - my father and I have our own business with our own little office building in North Palm Beach just a block from the intracoastal waterway. Our office building took a beating during Wilma (lots of roof and water damage) and we spent almost 6 months working out of our homes while the damage was repaired. Looking at the model trends I think I may need to stick around an extra day and finishing securing my in-laws place and help my dad get things ready at the office before I go. Crud . . . .

that is truly a tough one. Ain't timing just great sometimes?? Anyway, hope you can get it all secured and still have time for a wonderful vacation as well.

Tell me about it. Haven't really had much in the way of time off for 2 years. Not to mention I'm a weather/adrenalian junkie and wouldn't mind sticking around a couple extra days to ride this storm out if it heads our way, presuming it isn't a major. Oh well - figure I've got about another 12-18 hours to make a decision. Hopefully by then the models/NHC will have a better grip on what Emily is going to do.