ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[northjaxpro]

GCANE, to say the least, this has been one fascinating and hair-pulling storm to analyze, that's for sure already.

Plus, we still have several more days dealing with Emily still to come.

EDIT: Well, that is should Emily survive the next 24 hours or so.

[Kory]

Well the TVCN is almost spot on with the hurricane center, but is just slightly west as it gets 4-5 days out.

[Bocadude85]

00z Tropical Models

The BAMS go to GOM.



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I see that the HWRF model has not updated in that graphic once it updates shouldnt the TVCN move further west?

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 040040
AF306 0805A EMILY HDOB 50 20110804
003030 1728N 07008W 8428 01572 0103 +168 +063 148033 035 035 000 03
003100 1729N 07007W 8432 01568 0102 +170 +063 153033 035 035 000 00
003130 1730N 07006W 8428 01573 0108 +165 +063 152031 032 034 001 00
003200 1732N 07004W 8429 01571 0106 +166 +063 157028 029 034 000 00
003230 1733N 07003W 8429 01574 0110 +165 +062 151032 034 034 000 00
003300 1734N 07002W 8427 01576 0110 +166 +062 148034 034 033 000 00
003330 1735N 07000W 8429 01574 0111 +166 +062 145035 035 032 000 00
003400 1736N 06959W 8430 01573 0112 +164 +062 145035 036 033 003 00
003430 1737N 06958W 8431 01574 0112 +165 +062 151034 035 035 003 00
003500 1738N 06956W 8425 01579 0113 +163 +061 154035 037 038 008 00
003530 1739N 06955W 8430 01573 0124 +145 +060 150034 037 042 012 00
003600 1741N 06954W 8427 01581 0123 +147 +056 148035 036 042 011 00
003630 1742N 06952W 8428 01577 0120 +154 +054 145033 035 040 008 00
003700 1743N 06951W 8430 01577 0117 +160 +054 140034 035 038 001 00
003730 1744N 06950W 8432 01576 0119 +159 +054 135036 037 037 004 00
003800 1745N 06949W 8370 01637 0134 +133 +054 134035 037 041 012 00
003830 1746N 06947W 8090 01931 0143 +111 +050 141032 034 041 023 00
003900 1748N 06946W 7706 02334 0141 +090 +045 144029 030 043 020 03
003930 1749N 06944W 7308 02783 0133 +077 +039 161033 035 /// /// 03
004000 1750N 06942W 7051 03080 0144 +056 +034 162030 032 043 018 03
$$

Plane is ascending...mission over!

Next scheduled flight is at 0445 Z or 1245 AM Thursday morning....4 hrs from now.

[SunnyThoughts]

From the recon thread:
000
URNT11 KNHC 040008
97779 23514 40160 69740 15300 17020 17069 /2508
RMK AF306 0805A EMILY OB 24
FREQUENT LTG IN TS LOCATED 060 AT 15

Isn't lightening inside a system sometimes indicative of strengthening?

[Dave]

[TheShrimper]

Don't think I'll be going over to Freeport this weekend.

[lonelymike]

Maybe it will be a drought buster for Fla

[Evil Jeremy]

I see that the HWRF model has not updated in that graphic once it updates shouldnt the TVCN move further west?

The new BAMs, HWRF, and GFS, all of which moved west, are not included in the TVCN yet. Neither has the GFDL, even though its on the SFWMD page already. Update should be coming shortly. And yes, the TCVN will move west.

[NDG]

Just in case somebody has a question what is going to be making Emily move on a WNW to NW track over the next couple of days.
As you know this morning there was trough of low pressure to her NW in the western Atlantic. That trough is now lifting out but leaving a weakness in the ridge, Emily will be moving towards that weakness but she cannot move too much poleward initially because ridging will be moving back in place of the trough before yet another trough starts coming down late weekend and pushes the ridge back SE.
There has been differences between the strength of the ridge that is pushing back from her NE with the GFS previously showing a weaker ridge, the UKMET showing the stronger ridge and then the ECMWF showing a concensus between them two.
A weaker ridge will mean that Emily will track well east of FL before the next trough comes down, a stronger ridge moving back in from the Atlantic means a more western track close or on top of SE FL before a bend back to the NE as the next trough comes down.
I hope this explains it for those of you that might be wondering what is going to be steering Emily over the next two to three days.

I am picking the euro below because is a concensus between the UKMENT and GFS, you can see the ridge moving back in tomorrow through Saturday before the trough pushes it back SE.

[Kory]

From the recon thread:
000
URNT11 KNHC 040008
97779 23514 40160 69740 15300 17020 17069 /2508
RMK AF306 0805A EMILY OB 24
FREQUENT LTG IN TS LOCATED 060 AT 15

Isn't lightening inside a system sometimes indicative of strengthening?

Usually tropical systems have little lightning in the core. Its more in the outer bands.

[Florida1118]

Maybe it will be a drought buster for Fla

I thought we broke it already lol

[stormreader]

From what I understand models are shifting west again. My original post about Emily course back on Sun afternoon had Emily coming very near the keys-everglades area before working its way into the E Gom. You know I still think that might occur. I'm really interested in what the next model runs have to say--because I think they are going to go further west. The trough is still there, but I think the weakness is fading and High Pressure is building in. If Emily is to be kicked NE I think it will be delayed.

[stormreader]

From what I understand models are shifting west again. My original post about Emily course back on Sun afternoon had Emily coming very near the keys-everglades area before working its way into the E Gom. You know I still think that might occur. I'm really interested in what the next model runs have to say--because I think they are going to go further west. The trough is still there, but I think the weakness is fading and High Pressure is building in. If Emily is to be kicked NE I think it will be delayed.

Just an amateur taking a guess.

[lonelymike]

Bamms are pretty much useless above 20 degrees from what the pro mets say. Just a hard system for the models to handle.

[cycloneye]

TVCN and HWRF updated.



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[Florida1118]

Thats about as far spread as it gets

[Dave]

LAST VDM FOR PREVIOUS MISSION

000
URNT12 KNHC 040044
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052011
A. 04/00:14:00Z
B. 16 deg 53 min N
070 deg 41 min W
C. 850 mb 1479 m
D. 51 kt
E. 124 deg 12 nm
F. 191 deg 34 kt
G. 130 deg 33 nm
H. 1005 mb
I. 17 C / 1525 m
J. 21 C / 1522 m
K. 7 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 0805A EMILY OB 25
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 37 KT NE QUAD 00:35:00Z
RAPID TS DEVELOPMENT IN SE QUAD
;

[Dave]

DECODED VDM OB 25

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 00:44Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2011
Storm Name: Emily (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 25
A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 0:14:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°53'N 70°41'W (16.8833N 70.6833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 122 miles (197 km) to the SSW (205°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,479m (4,852ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 51kts (~ 58.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the ESE/SE (124°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 191° at 34kts (From between the S and SSW at ~ 39.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the SE (130°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Wind Outbound: 37kts (~ 42.6mph) in the northeast quadrant at 0:35:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 37kts (~ 42.6mph) in the northeast quadrant at 0:35:00Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
RAPID TS DEVELOPMENT IN SE QUAD

[Evil Jeremy]

:uarrow: Thats about as far spread as it gets

Throw out the BAMs. They are useless. When they are gone, we actually have a pretty good consensus. Florida, or just to the East.