ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[northjaxpro]

18Z GFDL landfall in South Florida near miami 86 kts....


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Then after landfall on that run, GFDL has Emily hugging north along the coast until up to around Cape Canaveral, where at that point she moves NE out to sea

[GCANE]

That's a good looking cell, just east of the LLC.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/storms/2011AL05/4KMSRBDC/2011AL05_4KMSRBDC_201108032345.jpg



Strong rain-rate and strong presentation on 37GHz.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?PHOT=yes&SIZE=full&NAV=tc&CURRENT=20110803.2308.f16.x.rain.05LEMILY.45kts-1005mb-168N-703W.66pc.jpg&AGE=Latest&ACTIVES=11-EPAC-05E.EUGENE,11-ATL-05L.EMILY,11-WPAC-11W.MUIFA,11-WPAC-12W.MERBOK,11-EPAC-97E.INVEST,11-WPAC-99W.INVEST&MO=AUG&STYLE=tables&ATCF_YR=2011&ATCF_BASIN=al&ATCF_NAME=al052011&YEAR=2011&YR=11&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=05L.EMILY&ARCHIVE=active&AREA=pacific/southern_hemisphere&DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc11/ATL/05L.EMILY/tc_ssmis/rain/2degreeticks&TYPE=ssmi&PROD=rain&SUB_PROD=2degreeticks

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_pregen_sat/PUBLIC/tc_pages/pages/tc11/ATL/05L.EMILY/tc_ssmis/color37/full/20110803.2308.f16.x.color37.05LEMILY.45kts-1005mb-168N-703W.66pc.html




Cloud tops starting to cool as well.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?PHOT=yes&ACTIVES=11-EPAC-05E.EUGENE,11-ATL-05L.EMILY,11-WPAC-11W.MUIFA,11-WPAC-12W.MERBOK,11-EPAC-97E.INVEST,11-WPAC-99W.INVEST&ATCF_BASIN=al&SIZE=full&NAV=tc&ATCF_YR=2011&CURRENT=20110803.2345.goes13.x.ir1km_bw.05LEMILY.45kts-1005mb-168N-703W.100pc.jpg&AGE=Latest&ATCF_NAME=al052011&MO=AUG&STYLE=tables&YEAR=2011&YR=11&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=05L.EMILY&ARCHIVE=active&AREA=pacific/southern_hemisphere&DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc11/ATL/05L.EMILY/ir/geo/1km&PROD=ir&SUB_PROD=1km&TYPE=geo

[RL3AO]

This dropsonde from the P3 flight south of the Hatian Peninsula suggests Emily might have a small window to organize before making landfall.

Code: Select all

1008mb (29.77 inHg)    Sea Level (Surface)    28.8°C (83.8°F)    24.3°C (75.7°F)   280° (from the W)    5 knots (6 mph)
1000mb   74m (243 ft)   28.2°C (82.8°F)    24.3°C (75.7°F)   280° (from the W)    5 knots (6 mph)
925mb   764m (2,507 ft)   23.4°C (74.1°F)    19.3°C (66.7°F)   125° (from the SE)    2 knots (2 mph)
850mb   1,497m (4,911 ft)   18.6°C (65.5°F)    15.2°C (59.4°F)   345° (from the NNW)    4 knots (5 mph)
700mb   3,146m (10,322 ft)   11.0°C (51.8°F)    6.2°C (43.2°F)   65° (from the ENE)    13 knots (15 mph)
500mb   5,870m (19,259 ft)   -5.1°C (22.8°F)    Approximately -17°C (1°F)   85° (from the E)    7 knots (8 mph)
400mb   7,600m (24,934 ft)   -15.3°C (4.5°F)    Approximately -35°C (-31°F)   65° (from the ENE)    6 knots (7 mph)
300mb   9,700m (31,824 ft)   -30.5°C (-22.9°F)    Approximately -58°C (-72°F)   270° (from the W)    11 knots (13 mph)
250mb   10,970m (35,991 ft)   -40.1°C (-40.2°F)    Approximately -58°C (-72°F)   205° (from the SSW)    23 knots (26 mph)
200mb   12,460m (40,879 ft)   -52.3°C (-62.1°F)    Approximately -72°C (-98°F)   195° (from the SSW)    24 knots (28 mph)
150mb   14,260m (46,785 ft)   -65.3°C (-85.5°F)    Reading usually unavailable when air temperature is below -40°C (-40°F)   No Wind Report Available For This Level

The right most column shows a much lighter low level flow with lighter shear.

[Dave]

[TheDreamTraveler]

getting a little better organized? perhaps?

It does, but it's still not entirely over the center yet. Though maybe with it being stationary it'll catch up and wrap around it more. Unless I'm seeing things wrong. If it can do that then it should really start to organize and strengthen before hitting Hispaniola/Cuba.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

[Kory]

Well Emily stalled...this system is a pain in the neck. This is going to produce torrential rains over Hispaniola and possibly allow move of a northerly movement to occur later on.

[Dave]

RECCO

000
URNT11 KNHC 040008
97779 23514 40160 69740 15300 17020 17069 /2508
RMK AF306 0805A EMILY OB 24
FREQUENT LTG IN TS LOCATED 060 AT 15NM
;

[Scorpion]

Definitely some interesting model runs. My interest in this is back

[GCANE]

getting a little better organized? perhaps?

It does, but it's still not entirely over the center yet. Though maybe with it being stationary it'll catch up and wrap around it more. Unless I'm seeing things wrong. If it can do that then it should really start to organize and strengthen before hitting Hispaniola/Cuba.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

If its stationary and that cell is a hot-tower, it most likely will help to get circulations more stacked.

If true, should see the effects within 6 hrs or so.

[CronkPSU]

wow....maybe it is actually starting to come together...selfishly i hope it does start heading north, afraid how much stronger it could get if it has minimal land interaction and hits the gulf stream...

[HurricaneBelle]

18Z GFDL landfall in South Florida near miami 86 kts....


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

The max wind speed figures in the GFDL/HWRF runs are aloft, so we're talking closer to 75kt here. Those winds are depicted offshore as well.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 040030
AF306 0805A EMILY HDOB 49 20110804
002030 1706N 07034W 8430 01555 0078 +184 +068 132030 031 034 000 00
002100 1708N 07032W 8435 01550 0081 +179 +067 137032 033 032 000 00
002130 1709N 07031W 8431 01554 0082 +178 +066 138029 030 033 001 00
002200 1710N 07030W 8426 01558 0080 +183 +064 135022 025 033 001 00
002230 1711N 07029W 8433 01553 0083 +178 +064 130022 023 031 002 00
002300 1712N 07027W 8430 01558 0086 +176 +063 130017 019 032 001 00
002330 1713N 07026W 8430 01558 0088 +174 +062 121020 021 033 003 00
002400 1714N 07025W 8433 01554 0090 +171 +061 127024 026 036 006 00
002430 1715N 07024W 8427 01563 0090 +171 +059 139030 031 037 005 00
002500 1716N 07022W 8430 01561 0091 +175 +059 142034 036 037 003 00
002530 1717N 07021W 8431 01561 0093 +173 +059 142031 033 035 001 00
002600 1718N 07020W 8428 01564 0093 +173 +060 140027 027 035 002 00
002630 1720N 07018W 8431 01566 0095 +175 +060 144027 028 035 002 00
002700 1721N 07017W 8426 01568 0093 +176 +062 141022 023 035 000 00
002730 1722N 07016W 8433 01560 0093 +178 +064 133020 021 034 000 00
002800 1723N 07015W 8428 01566 0093 +176 +064 129020 022 035 000 00
002830 1724N 07013W 8432 01563 0095 +173 +064 130023 024 035 001 00
002900 1725N 07012W 8429 01568 0097 +170 +064 138026 027 035 000 00
002930 1726N 07011W 8432 01564 0098 +170 +064 141027 028 034 000 00
003000 1727N 07010W 8429 01568 0099 +170 +064 145029 030 034 000 00
$$
;

[miamijaaz]

18Z GFDL landfall in South Florida near miami 86 kts....


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Then after landfall on that run, GFDL has Emily hugging north along the coast until up to around Cape Canaveral, when it moves NE out to sea

Let's all hope that doesn't verify. With a strong hurricane that's the nightmare scenario that's been talked about for years, a strong hurricane hitting the three most populous counties in Florida.

[Kory]

Now that Emily has stalled, this could allow her to start moving north and getting on the NHC track. None of the models predicted a stalling storm.

[NDG]

Looks like she is back in motion again, on a 300 deg heading from her last recon fix.

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 040027
XXAA 54008 99169 70707 04460 99005 27407 27515 00044 27005 27514
92733 23405 28508 85472 20056 30504 88999 77999
31313 09608 80014
61616 AF306 0805A EMILY OB 26
62626 EYE SPL 1688N07070W 0015 MBL WND 27013 AEV 20802 DLM WND 28
008 004843 WL150 27014 084 REL 1688N07070W 001410 SPG 1688N07070W
001554 =
XXBB 54008 99169 70707 04460 00005 27407 11862 20805 22850 20056
33843 19463
21212 00005 27515 11978 26514 22965 27510 33947 29011 44939 28010
55931 30011 66910 26004 77858 29506 88843 32003
31313 09608 80014
61616 AF306 0805A EMILY OB 26
62626 EYE SPL 1688N07070W 0015 MBL WND 27013 AEV 20802 DLM WND 28
008 004843 WL150 27014 084 REL 1688N07070W 001410 SPG 1688N07070W
001554 =
;

[Dave]

DECODED DROPSONDE OB 26

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 00:27Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 05
Storm Name: Emily (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 26

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 0Z on the 4th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 16.9N 70.7W
Location: 122 miles (196 km) to the SSW (206°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
Marsden Square: 044 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1005mb (29.68 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 27.4°C (81.3°F) 26.7°C (80.1°F) 275° (from the W) 15 knots (17 mph)
1000mb 44m (144 ft) 27.0°C (80.6°F) 26.5°C (79.7°F) 275° (from the W) 14 knots (16 mph)
925mb 733m (2,405 ft) 23.4°C (74.1°F) 22.9°C (73.2°F) 285° (from the WNW) 8 knots (9 mph)
850mb 1,472m (4,829 ft) 20.0°C (68.0°F) Approximately 14°C (57°F) 305° (from the NW) 4 knots (5 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 0:14Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...


Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.

Splash Location: 16.88N 70.7W
Splash Time: 0:15Z

Release Location: 16.88N 70.7W View map)
Release Time: 0:14:10Z

Splash Location: 16.88N 70.7W (
Splash Time: 0:15:54Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 270° (from the W)
- Wind Speed: 13 knots (15 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 280° (from the W)
- Wind Speed: 8 knots (9 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 843mb to 1004mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 270° (from the W)
- Wind Speed: 14 knots (16 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802


Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
1005mb (Surface) 27.4°C (81.3°F) 26.7°C (80.1°F)
862mb 20.8°C (69.4°F) 20.3°C (68.5°F)
850mb 20.0°C (68.0°F) Approximately 14°C (57°F)
843mb 19.4°C (66.9°F) Approximately 6°C (43°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
1005mb (Surface) 275° (from the W) 15 knots (17 mph)
978mb 265° (from the W) 14 knots (16 mph)
965mb 275° (from the W) 10 knots (12 mph)
947mb 290° (from the WNW) 11 knots (13 mph)
939mb 280° (from the W) 10 knots (12 mph)
931mb 300° (from the WNW) 11 knots (13 mph)
910mb 260° (from the W) 4 knots (5 mph)
858mb 295° (from the WNW) 6 knots (7 mph)
843mb 320° (from the NW) 3 knots (3 mph)




[GCANE]

Its been like this every day.

During the day, the core gets compressed down in altitude and then at night it bounces back.

Never saw this type of "modulation" before.



http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/image_amsuplot.asp?storm_identifier=AL052011&product_filename=2011AL05_AMSUPLOT_201108031755

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models

The BAMS go to GOM.



Uploaded by imageshack.us

[Dave]