ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Clint_TX]

Debby (2000) ...
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2000/DEBBY/track.gif

North of current position, but Emily may suffer the same fate.

Debbie spit out her llc much like this storm...although it flew away at 30kts...we will see on Em

[KWT]

Thanks SDF, that sorta backs up the idea this may well not have a closed circulation anymore...

GCANE, the western line of the cone probably isn't a bad guide for the next 24hrs...

[SouthDadeFish]

Visible satellite imagery confirms that there is still a closed circulation, but it needs more convection if it wants to survive.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

If this was a new system/wave coming into this area, we would be watching with anticipation over whether or not it would pull north and dissipate, or continue west towards eventual development into more conducive conditions. Ignore the past history with this one and treat it as a fresh situation. -a whole new excitement versus the feeling of a bust.

This has been a "fun one" to "play" with over the last few days for sure! What a learning experience!

[itsahurricane]

Seems to be a disconnect.

May need to hangup the phone and redial.

Still moving West like I said it would.

[SouthFloridawx]

If this was a new system/wave coming into this area, we would be watching with anticipation over whether or not it would pull north and dissipate, or continue west towards eventual development into more conducive conditions. Ignore the past history with this one and treat it as a fresh situation. -a whole new excitement versus the feeling of a bust.
This has been a "fun one" to "play" with over the last few days for sure! What a learning experience!

You are definitely right.

[ObsessedMiami]

Anyone else seeing the GFS op stuck @ 36 hrs?

Yes. Stuck for almost half an hour now.

Maybe Emily blew its mind. I know the feeling.

[5KOVERLIBOR]

And back running - 84 hrs

[cpdaman]

clearly vigorous LLC on visible.....

moving back to S. FL in less than 2 weeks can' wait to watch this upcoming season....i think it will be bizee.

seems emily has a shot to split the needle and move up thru eastern cuba but i think even if she moves more due west and slows before this supposed turn ...that she would be too close to the land mass of hispanola (indirectly at least) to really strengthen even if shear /dry air abates....but with that being said to quote chris berman "that's why they play the games" i.e that why we still watch JIC

[rockyman]

Exactly, Treasure! Storms have no memory...as much as we like to personify them...they are only reacting to current conditions...This is a storm with a fairly-well defined low level circulation..in August...over the warm Caribbean waters. It doesn't matter that it looked "better" yesterday.

[KWT]

Visible satellite imagery confirms that there is still a closed circulation, but it needs more convection if it wants to survive.

I did think that but the very latest images suggests if the is a closed circulation the west winds are pretty pathetic...

either way westwards we go!

[SouthDadeFish]

GFS has been very consistent, I'll give it that.

[lebron23]

This storm is a joke, but the rains are serious.

[Bocadude85]

Well convection is starting to expand a little.. also some convection starting to fire over Hispanola.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html

[SouthDadeFish]

Visible satellite imagery confirms that there is still a closed circulation, but it needs more convection if it wants to survive.

I did think that but the very latest images suggests if the is a closed circulation the west winds are pretty pathetic...

either way westwards we go!

Probably right. Remember ASCAT showed a trough last night and recon said otherwise.

[Javlin]

However, we've been seeing that eastern ridge oozing on its southern side west along with, and just above, Emily so far. Yes a weakness is there now to her northwest, but the ridge is still oozing a bit westerly too. The trough should miss blatantly pulling her up as she remains weak, but the ridge will also discontinue moving west with her for a short time. Steering currents weaken, and she slows up before starting to turn. However, the ridge should start building back in again, pinching off the current weakness opening nearly along pretty quickly.

She will still find the western edge of the ridge, and start to turn to the WNW and NW eventually, but by the time that happens, the trough will be departing and steering currents will be weak/slow. The ridge continues to go a bit more west and she starts to head up the ridge's western flank. At that point, she is now either over Cuba or at least near Jamaica. Either clearing Cuba to the north or being under it is conducive for development, so she could strengthen rapidly. At that point, the chart you showed becomes less relevant, as she would be steered more by the mid and upper steering patterns versus the lower ones. Those patterns start favoring a more northerly route into the Gulf and along Florida's west coast and spine. Another approaching trough coming along would then account for a future weakness to bring her more north and east with more gusto a few days later.
IMHO, also not a pro met.

Much of what you say has been my thoughts for the last few days.I never bought the NW pull and do not ATTM

[AJC3]

000
NOUS42 KWNO 031612
ADMNFD


SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1612Z WED AUG 03 2011

12Z GFS IS RUNNING BEHIND SCHEDULE DUE TO A SYSTEM ISSUE SUPPORT
IS WORKING THE PROBLEM..

$$

SHRUELL/SDM/NCO/NCEP

--------------------------

Running slow, but it's out through 78 hours, and it's position with the center of Emily is about 50-60 miles SW of it's 06Z run.

[cpdaman]

i think she's lookin better and better in last hour
at least thru 1610utc

http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satelli ... &itype=vis

is anyone denyin thats a vigorous LLC

i mean yes wv...and infared look pathetic but the LLC is hanging tuff

[SFLcane]

GFS has been very consistent, I'll give it that.

Favorable upper enviroment north of DR. If theres anything left watch out.

[x-y-no]

GFS has been very consistent, I'll give it that.

Yep. Same slow movement through the Bahamas. Same stall in norther Bahamas. And at 93 hours, here comes a little dip in the mid-level flow to pick it up.