ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[SouthDadeFish]

12Z GFS running...

[FireRat]

Okay for everyone wondering if this will keep going west into the GOM or Yucatan, this is why I'm pretty sure it won't. I'm not a professional met, but I am a met undergrad. Take a look at the 700-850mb steering flow. This is the steering flow for weak tropical systems such as Emily.


Notice the weakness between the two ridges currently over the SE Bahamas. Emily will very quickly begin to feel this weakness as the low level flow will begin to pull it in that direction. Emily is already approaching the SW periphery of the subtropical ridge to her NE and should soon begin to turn more towards the WNW to NW. Storms just don't pass through a weakness like that. Also notice how the ridge to NW is blocking the Gulf States at this time. Emily would instead get pushed into Central America, not the Gulf. My best forecast would have Emily start to turn to the WNW in the next 6 hours and cross of Haiti and possibly even SE Cuba. The NHC forecast cone is still very reasonable at this time.

Remember, this is not a professional forecast, but rather simply mine.

Good view and analysis. This is why I still have faith in the NHC's forecast track for Emily....although it may be along the west side of the cone but still inside it. Carolinas should monitor Emily's progress after it clears Haiti or extreme east Cuba late tomorrow. It'll be a close call, especially for NC.

[KWT]

Out of rapid scan for now it seems looking at the loops...

I think the system is starting to open up, recon will confirm though.

Also...still pretty close to due west...

[rockyman]

Here is the low-level steering flow from 24 hours ago. Note the trough digging down off the east coast of Florida.


Compare this to the current map (in previous post). The trough is much less amplified now.

[wxsouth]

Euro has been consistent in keeping this system very weak and not much more than an open wave. I suspect this may be the final outcome. Without a stacked circulation, the system will either die over Hispaniola or die as it moves west into increasing southerly shear. I have very little confidence that a notable system will exist north of the islands.

[SouthDadeFish]

Here is the low-level steering flow from 24 hours ago. Note the trough digging down off the east coast of Florida.


Compare this to the current map (in previous post). The trough is much less amplified now.

The weakness is still there nonetheless.

[lostsole]

Okay for everyone wondering if this will keep going west into the GOM or Yucatan, this is why I'm pretty sure it won't. I'm not a professional met, but I am a met undergrad. Take a look at the 700-850mb steering flow. This is the steering flow for weak tropical systems such as Emily.


Notice the weakness between the two ridges currently over the SE Bahamas. Emily will very quickly begin to feel this weakness as the low level flow will begin to pull it in that direction. Emily is already approaching the SW periphery of the subtropical ridge to her NE and should soon begin to turn more towards the WNW to NW. Storms just don't pass through a weakness like that. Also notice how the ridge to NW is blocking the Gulf States at this time. Emily would instead get pushed into Central America, not the Gulf. My best forecast would have Emily start to turn to the WNW in the next 6 hours and cross of Haiti and possibly even SE Cuba. The NHC forecast cone is still very reasonable at this time.

Remember, this is not a professional forecast, but rather simply mine.

After looking at the map, and listening to SouthDadeFish, I find it hard to disagree.

[SouthDadeFish]

Euro has been consistent in keeping this system very weak and not much more than an open wave. I suspect this may be the final outcome. Without a stacked circulation, the system will either die over Hispaniola or die as it moves west into increasing southerly shear. I have very little confidence that a notable system will exist north of the islands.

You may very well be right. Why do we ever doubt the almighty Euro?

[Frank2]

At lease the center will not be hard to spot.

You got that right (LOL)...

P.S. William (Broward County FL) if you read this, keep me in your prayers. Glad Emily is about as sick as I am, because I wouldn't want to be lying in a hospital room with a hurricane headed this way (usually I'd be on the road to Sebring or Ocala or Birmingham - lol)...

So, if you all don't see me post, that's why (unless one of the folks in my office loan me their laptop)...

P.P.S. 3,000 plus posts - wow (no wonder I'm sick)...

Frank2

[SouthFloridawx]

Due west still...

[KWT]

Euro has been consistent in keeping this system very weak and not much more than an open wave. I suspect this may be the final outcome. Without a stacked circulation, the system will either die over Hispaniola or die as it moves west into increasing southerly shear. I have very little confidence that a notable system will exist north of the islands.

both sounds reasonable, the only thing I will say is the models show some marked weakening of the shear in the next 24-48hrs in the W.Caribbean/Bahamas region...which would allow the system to sustain itself.

I'm just abit wary of calling this one to die, I'm betting it still finds better conditions and either reforms or restrengthens...

Right now think its in real trouble, looking at the circulation I'm not convinced recon will even find a closed low...

[StormClouds63]

Debby (2000) ...
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2000/DEBBY/track.gif

North of current position, but Emily may suffer the same fate.

[5KOVERLIBOR]

Anyone else seeing the GFS op stuck @ 36 hrs?

[rockyman]

Here's a quote from Brian Peters, a pro met from ABC33/40 in Birmingham (emphasis added by me):

Complicating the overall picture will be Emily. As James noted below, the NHC track for Emily is into the Southwest Atlantic recurving offshore from Florida and the Southeast US coast. Emily continues to struggle getting her act together. Convection is removed from the main center and she is coming up on Hispaniola. This means that any intensification is likely to be slow to occur as the circulation begins to interact with the high terrain of Hispaniola. Future track concerns me since the computer model guidance as once again shown a shift more to the west. Emily seems to have stayed on a more westward track than forecasts have shown, so I am concerned that small changes now could result in a storm coming into the eastern Gulf. The GFS shows recurvature, but with a somewhat weak pressure pattern in the area ahead of Emily, we’ll have to sit back and watch for now.

http://www.alabamawx.com/

[GTStorm]

Anyone else seeing the GFS op stuck @ 36 hrs?

yes....getting the same thing

[x-y-no]

Anyone else seeing the GFS op stuck @ 36 hrs?

Yes. Stuck for almost half an hour now.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Okay for everyone wondering if this will keep going west into the GOM or Yucatan, this is why I'm pretty sure it won't. ...
(picture)
.... The NHC forecast cone is still very reasonable at this time.

Remember, this is not a professional forecast, but rather simply mine.

This helps explain current path well. However, we've been seeing that eastern ridge oozing on its southern side west along with, and just above, Emily so far. Yes a weakness is there now to her northwest, but the ridge is still oozing a bit westerly too. The trough should miss blatantly pulling her up as she remains weak, but the ridge will also discontinue moving west with her for a short time. Steering currents weaken, and she slows up before starting to turn. However, the ridge should start building back in again, pinching off the current weakness opening nearly along pretty quickly.

She will still find the western edge of the ridge, and start to turn to the WNW and NW eventually, but by the time that happens, the trough will be departing and steering currents will be weak/slow. The ridge continues to go a bit more west and she starts to head up the ridge's western flank. At that point, she is now either over Cuba or at least near Jamaica. Either clearing Cuba to the north or being under it is conducive for development, so she could strengthen rapidly. At that point, the chart you showed becomes less relevant, as she would be steered more by the mid and upper steering patterns versus the lower ones. Those patterns start favoring a more northerly route into the Gulf and along Florida's west coast and spine. Another approaching trough coming along would then account for a future weakness to bring her more north and east with more gusto a few days later.
IMHO, also not a pro met.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[GCANE]

Seems to be a disconnect.

May need to hangup the phone and redial.

[SouthDadeFish]

New ASCAT:

[5KOVERLIBOR]

Vertical instability remains very low in the CAR and throughout the Atl Basin. Yes, this is a limited granularity measurement and admittedly observations drawn from this are weaker as a result. But this is a phenomena that dominated the 2010 Atlantic Basin season and I believe is influencing what we have seen thus far this season.

For my money - until I see instability improve - I believe the overall threat for well-organized systems remains less than it would be without the anomalously-low instabilities.