ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Javlin]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/natl/main.html

Looking at MIMIC-TPW Emily never moved NW, has always moved west, and the main signature of circulation is now due south of Hispaniola. Interesting.

Spot on. Keep an eye on this.

But to many look to the models they are only a tool .The models do not tell Mother Nature what's going to happen it's the other way around.

and most of the models seem to have a right bias!

[Dean4Storms]

NHC kept it 50 mph until Recon goes in here in a couple hours, no use in trying to guess what the winds currently are.

[wxman57]

Winds are probably 30-35 kts now. Recon should verify that shortly.

[Blown Away]

Why is it that Atlantic storms often have a harder time developing compared to those in the EPAC or WPAC?

Don't forget it's early August, Atlantic's prime is late August to early October. Conditions will be ideal in about 3-4 weeks and we will likely see and Emily type system become a hurricane rather than a weak TS.

[SouthFLTropics]

Lixion Avila made the correct call with the information he had at hand at the time the update was due. I for one wouldn't want to be in their shoes right now having to deal with this system.

SFT

[Bocadude85]

I do not understand how this storm is going to go from a naked swirl to a 60mph storm off the SE Fla coast..?

[maxx9512]

Does not look like the track has changed (slightly) but something I noticed. The T.S. wind probabilities on Fl. in which the 20 to 30 % were offshore the Fl. east coast at 8;00 am are now onshore with the new advisory. Not sure if this means anything. Just thought odd if track did not change as much.

[SouthFLTropics]

I do not understand how this storm is going to go from a naked swirl to a 60mph storm off the SE Fla coast..?

Well, it is possible...but probably not likely. The Labor Day Hurricane in 1935 went from just becoming a hurricane to a Cat 5 in approximately 24 hours...but obviously it had ideal conditions to work with.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1935_Labor_Day_hurricane

[Blown Away]

I do not understand how this storm is going to go from a naked swirl to a 60mph storm off the SE Fla coast..?

Once above Cuba, Emily will have @40 hours to travel over 300 miles of very warm SST's, improving upper level conditions, per NHC, and a trip along the Gulfstream. IMO, 60 mph not that aggressive.

[SouthDadeFish]

I do not understand how this storm is going to go from a naked swirl to a 60mph storm off the SE Fla coast..?

Because if it can survive Hispaniola, conditions will be much more favorable than what it is seeing now. That is why. The NHC is assuming it remains a tropical cyclone in their forecast, and if it does I think a 60 mph TS is a very reasonable forecast. To be honest though, I'm not sure it will survive. I'm siding with the LLC regenerating from the MLC idea. The LLC looks pretty fragile at this time. Just my opinion.

[KWT]

Winds are probably 30-35 kts now. Recon should verify that shortly.

Yep sounds right to me, I'd expect they may just find enough to keep it at 35kts next advisory.

One thing for sure, survival isn't certain.

Still heading close to due west, looks like its going to miss DR to me...unless there is some changes...

[FireRat]

Why is it that Atlantic storms often have a harder time developing compared to those in the EPAC or WPAC?

The Atlantic hurricane season is far shorter than both Pacific seasons, especially when talking about the peak. Our peak like stated earlier is late Aug.-October. In the EPAC its roughly Late July-October and the WPAC has a really long period ripe for strong typhoons: Early July-Late November.

We'll only have a handful of weeks for there to be real action. Now Haiti could see "real" action even from the weakest system, better hope the "blob" doesn't go right over on top of them tonight & tomorrow, catastrophic floods could ensue.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Shear west of Jamaica is very low, and if the trough bypasses without lifting the storm, then the shear along west coast florida won't be that bad either. could be conducive for development. -as if this storm was starting fresh from a vigorous wave in the area. hmmm... maybe better to consider it that way at the moment and forget all the previous guidance.

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks to me like we have some serious competing vortices going on! What is that spinning just south of Puerto Rico at around 15N and 59.5W??? Are we seeing a complete decoupling of the MLC and LLC here?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

SFT

[KWT]

Looks to me like we have some serious competing vortices going on! What is that spinning just south of Puerto Rico at around 15N and 59.5W??? Are we seeing a complete decoupling of the MLC and LLC here?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

SFT

Looks to me like its probably part of the MLC butn you can also see the LLC's circulation rotating up and out from that area as well so may just be the main LLC.

Need 293 degrees for the NHC track to come off...better shift WNW soon!

[ConvergenceZone]

I do not understand how this storm is going to go from a naked swirl to a 60mph storm off the SE Fla coast..?

They will probably lower the strength soon, they were probably waiting and were being more aggressive just in case.

[lostsole]

Now if this naked swirl never dies and continues west and into the GOM, which is by no means out of the realm of possibility, and then would traverse up the west coast of florida, it could be a major problem for the Gulf Coast. I am not going by data so much, but by a gut feeling it just is not going to turn as sharp or quickly as they exepected, maybe because to me the center seems to be unstable and keeps relocating southwest

[FireRat]

Looks to me like we have some serious competing vortices going on! What is that spinning just south of Puerto Rico at around 15N and 59.5W??? Are we seeing a complete decoupling of the MLC and LLC here?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

SFT

Apparently looks like two things are rotating, interesting. Emily's been a "cross-eyed" storm since birth, and i think this is what has been hindering its growth all along. It's like its been creating its own shear with multiple spins near the supposed center. Perhaps after striking land, one of the swirls dies and the other one takes hold?? hmmm....will be interesting to see if Emily will die soon or take advantage of going pirate and losing one "eye".

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks like a little convection is trying to fire over the center, but can't quite do it yet. Also notice a band forming to the E and NE of the center. I'm thinking as the old blob of convection fades SE and dies, we will see a new form over the center here shortly. (This is just my opinion not a professional forecast).

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

[SouthDadeFish]

Latest visible showing the band and the attempted flare-up: