ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[jhpigott]

What may play out here and its a theory now is the system degenerates back into a trough over the next 12-24 hrs and then a new LLC "magically" forms in the SE Bahamas or off the NE tip of Cuba. I've seen these transformations happen before, can't quite recall the exact storms, where the energy is transfered to a new location, especially with these weak systems that are interupted by land. Just a thought.

that almost sounds like what this model predicts . . .

Experimental COAMPS....

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/w ... 0m&tau=999

[tolakram]

If an MLC moves north I think that is possible, but the problem with Emily right now is the energy is scattered between the west moving LLC and well SE in what remains of an MLC. IMO.

[ROCK]

As long as she can maintain convection even close to the LLC then she will be fine. But o do agree she is am ugly TS attm....

[Bocadude85]

I'm near 100% sure thats the main circulation for now, recon obs do back up a weak circulation to the south in the convection which maybe needs watching if the LLC decides to take a trip over Hispaniola.

It does look bad, but I've seen storms bounce back from this point and become MH before, so its not totally game over.

Wind shear vector sghould change VERY SOON from a westerly to a more southerly type flow...

True. you can see the southerly flow on this loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html

[Blown Away]

If NHC backs Emily down to TD we know they are thinking game over.

[JtSmarts]

What may play out here and its a theory now is the system degenerates back into a trough over the next 12-24 hrs and then a new LLC "magically" forms in the SE Bahamas or off the NE tip of Cuba. I've seen these transformations happen before, can't quite recall the exact storms, where the energy is transfered to a new location, especially with these weak systems that are interupted by land. Just a thought.

I'm not quite sure about this but didn't Gustav Pre-Cuba and Jeanne do something similar.

[Ground_Zero_92]

What may play out here and its a theory now is the system degenerates back into a trough over the next 12-24 hrs and then a new LLC "magically" forms in the SE Bahamas or off the NE tip of Cuba. I've seen these transformations happen before, can't quite recall the exact storms, where the energy is transfered to a new location, especially with these weak systems that are interupted by land. Just a thought.

that almost sounds like what this model predicts . . .

Experimental COAMPS....

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/w ... 0m&tau=999

Interesting scenario. I don't think I've seen this model before. Anyone know the track record of this COAMPS model??

[KWT]

I'm not quite sure about this but didn't Gustav Pre-Cuba and Jeanne do something similar.

Yep thats true they did...

Of course both actually hit Hispaniola...not sure thats going to be the case with this one, low level flow looks quite strong to the west for a little while yet. Flow doesn't go WNW/NW till about 73-75W looking at the loops.

[theU]

swirling west

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&info=vis&quality=65&lat=17&lon=-69&zoom=1&width=900&height=680&type=Animation&numframes=15&mapcolor=gray

[KWT]

My gut is recon may find a much weaker system, probably 35kts now I'd imagine...

[ConvergenceZone]

If it looks this bad by the time is hits the island, Game Over, and then we can probably say, "next!"...

[ROCK]

Haven't heard of the COAPS before. Must be new...I do however want to know how it magically forms a LLC like that...

[KWT]

If it looks this bad by the time is hits the island, Game Over, and then we can probably say, "next!"...

Probably not going to hit the island, or if it does it'#ll be a brush by.

Low level flow is near due west for a fair while yet so providing it doesn't blow up a new area of convection, its going to miss hispaniola or only scrape by the southern part of it...

NHC going to have to shift west in the short term (0-24hrs)

[cycloneye]

Off Topic= Those who may be interested to see the August Klotzbach / Gray August forecast,can go to Talking Tropics forum and check it out.

[Meso]

In all honesty, this will be the first time I've wanted a storm to just die. I can't keep up with all the fluctuations and her bipolar nature. I thought Don was bad...

Please Emily, decouple like a good girl and save me the pain of trying to figure out what's going on with you and what you're going to be doing next.

[Steve H.]

Looks like she's melting down.

[SFLcane]

[KWT]

Looks like she's melting down.

Yeah it does look like its really struggling...

not sure whats worse mind you, strong shear and a track south of Hispaniola...or moderate shear but with a track over high ground...

Tough call!

[Blown Away]

http://i.imgur.com/F4OCZ.gif

Short term, looks like GFS, HWRF, and GFDL won't verify! Ukmet looking good!

[Portastorm]

SFLcane, please check your PMs.