ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Aric Dunn]

285 ?? hardly.. if anything that would be considered 260 for the last 3 fixes

Fron the 1st fix to the last fix its been on pretty much a 275 heading...well south of the models.

well just got done calculating it again and yeah 275 is about right.

[KWT]

EJ, center will be just a tiny bit north of there, but not by much, and certainly still south of ALL models.

[Kory]

The BAMS, BAMD, CMC, and UKMET show a track the system is currently taking.

[NDG]

New possible center fix at 16.45N 68.9W.

If indeed that is her new fix, her heading is at 277 deg, average using the recon fix from 5 hours ago.

[wzrgirl1]

Models will no choice but to shift more west at the 12z.. being that emily is still moving west.. and last couple hours slightly south of due west.. from recon

I think you mean track right?

[KWT]

Problem is Kory that extrap motion is too far north, so actually the system is tracking south of allmodels right now...

Going to need a decent jog to the north to get this to DR and not Haiti...

[Blown Away]

Models will no choice but to shift more west at the 12z.. being that emily is still moving west.. and last couple hours slightly south of due west.. from recon

The spread is getting wide. My rule is westward moving storms beginning the recurve and pass through/near Windward Channel usually can't miss Florida.

[xironman]

NOAA 00z 3 KM HWRF rakes the FL east coast with a CAT 2 hurricane.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrf-noaahfiptc2.cgi?time=2011080300-emily05l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Ouch you can't get closer to landfall without actually having a landfall, the east coast gets raked by the eyewall on that run!

It's interesting how the orientation of the west atlantic ridge mimics the orientation of the FL east coast. That could potentially be a very dangerous setup if Emily becomes a hurricane and stays just 10 or 20 miles offshore almost the entire length of the coast from WPB to JAX. This new model by NOAA, the 3 km HWRF, does anyone know anything about it other than I suspect it has finer resolution?

It is finer resolution, but 57 said a few days back that it is still pretty buggy and he would not trust it.

[NDG]

The BAMS, BAMD, CMC, and UKMET show a track the system is currently taking.

So are you saying that those models are correct down the road?

[Kory]

Problem is Kory that extrap motion is too far north, so actually the system is tracking south of allmodels right now...

Going to need a decent jog to the north to get this to DR and not Haiti...

Yep I know. That's why its showing Emily entering the Gulf.

[jlauderdal]

285 ?? hardly.. if anything that would be considered 260 for the last 3 fixes

Fron the 1st fix to the last fix its been on pretty much a 275 heading...well south of the models.

well just got done calculating it again and yeah 275 is about right.

whats the average for the last 12 hours since you are in calculation mode?

[Kory]

The BAMS, BAMD, CMC, and UKMET show a track the system is currently taking.

So are you saying that those models are correct down the road?

I'm not jinxing myself by saying something about this system. Its highly uncertain obviously. I'm just saying when the model runs came out, the models I listed showed a more southern solution.

[ronjon]

I think the key here on the track is obviously the strength of the ridging but also of Emily herself. The storm has not significantly strengthened like some models predicted south of Hispaniola. If she stays status quo, she may end up sliding more west similar to CMC and UKMET.

[perk]

Models will no choice but to shift more west at the 12z.. being that emily is still moving west.. and last couple hours slightly south of due west.. from recon

I think you mean track right?

No he means west.

[KWT]

Models will no choice but to shift more west at the 12z.. being that emily is still moving west.. and last couple hours slightly south of due west.. from recon

I think you mean track right?

Nope he means left, a more westerly track for now will mean the forecast will need to shift a little to the west, may not make a huge amount of difference down the line YET but does need to be watched...

We've all seen times when systems constantly defy the models, possibly the mozst famous being Katrina which dived so well WSW of where was expected...turned out the ridge was 300% stronger then forecasted!

[CourierPR]

I was here in '64 when Cleo crossed southeastern Cuba and headed up Florida's east coast. I'm watching closely.

[wzrgirl1]

Models will no choice but to shift more west at the 12z.. being that emily is still moving west.. and last couple hours slightly south of due west.. from recon

I think you mean track right?

No he means west.

I was wondering if he meant track instead of models.

[SFLcane]

WTNT35 KNHC 031131
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
800 AM AST WED AUG 03 2011

...EMILY HEADING WESTWARD...REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6 69.0W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
800 AM AST WED AUG 03 2011

...EMILY HEADING WESTWARD...REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6 69.0W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
*CENTRAL BAHAMAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.0 WEST. EMILY HAS
BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. HOWEVER...A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY
WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES
HISPANIOLA...AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THAT ISLAND. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
AFTER THE CENTER MOVES AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT IN PUERTO
RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS
AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THURSDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IN PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

WTNT35 KNHC 031131
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
800 AM AST WED AUG 03 2011

...EMILY HEADING WESTWARD...REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6 69.0W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

The forecast track at 11 AM may have to be a little more to the left.