ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Hurricaneman]

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/28/201108030078486skewt.gif/

Time-sensitive link:

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/soundin ... STNM=78486

Someone observed this on another board, and this is actually his image. So don't accuse me of plagiarism. But, it's worth noting here. Observe the 300 mb winds out of the NW at 20 knots and the 850 mb winds out the NE at 27 knots. Very different velocities at very different altitudes, in other words there is quite strong 850-300 mb shear present. This is pretty obvious to me on visible satellite as well. Shear undercutting the outflow layer tends to be pretty noxious to tropical cyclones see Tomas and Erika as examples.

That makes sense in why Emily has its current presentation and until that shear abates if ever, this will not become a strong system

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030530
AF306 0705A EMILY HDOB 09 20110803
052000 1533N 06813W 8429 01558 0081 +181 +088 359006 008 006 000 00
052030 1532N 06814W 8426 01561 0079 +185 +090 356008 009 003 001 00
052100 1531N 06815W 8428 01561 0079 +183 +091 002009 009 003 000 00
052130 1530N 06816W 8428 01558 0082 +176 +093 007008 009 004 000 00
052200 1528N 06817W 8427 01561 0082 +180 +092 004009 009 003 000 00
052230 1527N 06819W 8426 01560 0083 +179 +092 005008 009 005 000 00
052300 1526N 06820W 8429 01562 0084 +178 +093 007008 008 003 001 00
052330 1525N 06821W 8428 01563 0086 +180 +093 012006 007 003 001 00
052400 1523N 06822W 8426 01563 0086 +178 +093 033005 006 006 001 00
052430 1522N 06823W 8429 01561 0087 +176 +094 018006 006 005 001 00
052500 1521N 06825W 8429 01562 0086 +177 +094 026006 006 005 000 00
052530 1520N 06826W 8426 01562 0083 +180 +094 029006 006 006 001 00
052600 1518N 06827W 8428 01564 0082 +180 +093 028006 007 006 001 00
052630 1517N 06828W 8429 01562 0084 +180 +093 020007 008 005 001 00
052700 1516N 06829W 8428 01563 0084 +182 +094 024008 008 007 000 00
052730 1515N 06831W 8429 01562 0084 +180 +093 027007 007 005 000 00
052800 1513N 06832W 8428 01564 0085 +180 +094 033007 008 008 000 00
052830 1512N 06833W 8428 01563 0087 +180 +093 031009 009 008 000 00
052900 1511N 06834W 8428 01563 0086 +177 +094 033008 008 006 001 00
052930 1509N 06836W 8428 01563 0086 +175 +094 042008 009 008 000 00
$$
;

[jonj2040]

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[SouthFloridawx]

Looking at the past advisories. It's pretty safe to say that if this motion continues, it's not going to hit the mountains of Hispaniola. It may skirt the southern peninsula in Haiti and curve between there and Cuba on a more northerly course.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030540
AF306 0705A EMILY HDOB 10 20110803
053000 1508N 06837W 8428 01563 0085 +178 +095 035009 009 009 000 00
053030 1507N 06838W 8428 01563 0085 +180 +097 024008 008 007 000 00
053100 1506N 06839W 8428 01564 0086 +178 +098 025009 009 005 000 00
053130 1504N 06840W 8426 01564 0085 +180 +099 023009 010 006 000 00
053200 1503N 06842W 8428 01563 0086 +180 +100 024009 010 006 001 00
053230 1502N 06843W 8426 01566 0086 +180 +100 035007 007 003 001 03
053300 1500N 06843W 8425 01568 0087 +180 +101 052005 006 /// /// 03
053330 1500N 06841W 8433 01558 0086 +180 +102 072004 005 006 000 03
053400 1500N 06840W 8429 01564 0086 +180 +102 090004 004 006 000 00
053430 1500N 06838W 8428 01561 0086 +180 +101 088004 004 006 000 00
053500 1500N 06836W 8428 01565 0083 +180 +101 092003 003 006 001 00
053530 1500N 06834W 8428 01562 0084 +180 +100 074002 002 003 001 00
053600 1500N 06833W 8428 01561 0081 +180 +100 063002 003 003 000 00
053630 1501N 06831W 8428 01560 0079 +180 +099 080002 002 002 000 00
053700 1501N 06829W 8428 01557 0081 +180 +099 081001 002 003 001 00
053730 1501N 06828W 8429 01558 0082 +179 +098 020001 002 005 001 00
053800 1501N 06826W 8426 01562 0083 +180 +098 085000 001 006 000 00
053830 1501N 06824W 8428 01562 0084 +180 +097 063000 001 008 001 00
053900 1501N 06823W 8427 01563 0085 +180 +097 062001 001 006 000 00
053930 1501N 06821W 8429 01559 0084 +180 +097 041001 002 006 000 00
$$
;

[Florida1118]

2:00 AM AST Wed Aug 3
Location: 16.3°N 67.5°W
Max sustained: 50 mph
Moving: WNW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb

[jonj2040]

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[Florida1118]

Looking at the past advisories. It's pretty safe to say that if this motion continues, it's not going to hit the mountains of Hispaniola. It may skirt the southern peninsula in Haiti and curve between there and Cuba on a more northerly course.

Yeah, according to the NHC track it should be going NW soon, so I dont know if its going to do that, but Im not a met or even knowledged much in weather

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030550
AF306 0705A EMILY HDOB 11 20110803
054000 1501N 06819W 8428 01562 0084 +180 +097 146001 002 007 001 00
054030 1501N 06817W 8428 01560 0080 +181 +098 247001 002 015 000 00
054100 1501N 06816W 8425 01564 0082 +180 +099 227002 003 010 001 00
054130 1501N 06814W 8423 01564 0089 +171 +099 212003 004 019 004 00
054200 1501N 06812W 8428 01560 0088 +173 +099 227004 006 025 003 03
054230 1500N 06811W 8425 01563 0090 +166 +096 228004 005 018 005 00
054300 1459N 06810W 8432 01558 0088 +174 +092 219005 006 015 001 03
054330 1459N 06808W 8429 01561 0084 +176 +092 213008 008 010 001 00
054400 1459N 06806W 8432 01559 0084 +178 +094 218008 008 008 001 03
054430 1458N 06804W 8426 01563 0084 +177 +096 222007 008 010 000 00
054500 1458N 06803W 8429 01561 0083 +179 +098 221008 009 009 000 00
054530 1458N 06801W 8428 01558 0084 +180 +097 224010 010 016 002 00
054600 1457N 06759W 8428 01561 0084 +178 +098 219010 011 018 003 03
054630 1457N 06758W 8429 01561 0082 +180 +098 210011 012 018 003 00
054700 1458N 06756W 8426 01563 0083 +180 +099 207013 013 017 000 00
054730 1458N 06754W 8429 01560 0085 +178 +099 204014 015 013 000 00
054800 1458N 06752W 8428 01563 0084 +176 +099 198015 015 011 001 00
054830 1459N 06751W 8426 01563 0084 +175 +099 196014 015 016 001 03
054900 1459N 06749W 8428 01561 0084 +177 +099 196015 015 018 000 00
054930 1500N 06747W 8428 01560 0087 +175 +098 195014 015 016 001 00
$$
;

[Evil Jeremy]

00z GFDL: Slight east shift. Pretty much over the current NHC cone.

[jonj2040]

Can some one take over the google images as this is gonna have to be my last post tonight


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[FireRat]

Emily is a ball.

Will have to see if she can fight off the shear come tomorrow, if she does I believe this will achieve strong tropical storm/weak hurricane status. If she still struggles with the shear and dry air, it'll remain status quo. Either way, I'm concerned for Haiti. If they receive the rains that Martinique had yesterday, we could be talking a serious flood disaster in the hard-hit nation. The best case would be a weak Emily passing well south of Haiti with little rainfall...but that's looking unlikely still.

[Bocadude85]

shifted west of the 18z run?

[Evil Jeremy]

Looking at the past advisories. It's pretty safe to say that if this motion continues, it's not going to hit the mountains of Hispaniola. It may skirt the southern peninsula in Haiti and curve between there and Cuba on a more northerly course.

Yeah, according to the NHC track it should be going NW soon, so I dont know if its going to do that, but Im not a met or even knowledged much in weather

Has to be moving NW now to make next point pretty much. Still heading 285 degrees.

New cone:


Also, don't look now, but another random wind shift with recon.

[Evil Jeremy]

shifted west of the 18z run?

I'm sorry, it was East. My bad.

[SeminoleWind]

Perhaps NHC will slid a tad west at 5am

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030600
AF306 0705A EMILY HDOB 12 20110803
055000 1501N 06746W 8425 01563 0085 +175 +098 195015 016 016 001 00
055030 1501N 06744W 8429 01560 0084 +175 +098 196015 016 018 000 00
055100 1502N 06742W 8426 01564 0083 +178 +099 194015 016 018 000 00
055130 1503N 06741W 8429 01561 0082 +181 +099 196015 016 019 000 03
055200 1503N 06739W 8425 01561 0079 +180 +099 199015 016 018 000 00
055230 1503N 06737W 8429 01557 0079 +180 +099 201016 016 017 000 00
055300 1503N 06735W 8426 01562 0081 +179 +099 202016 016 018 000 00
055330 1503N 06734W 8427 01561 0081 +178 +100 202016 016 018 000 00
055400 1503N 06732W 8430 01554 0082 +179 +099 205016 016 018 001 00
055430 1503N 06730W 8426 01560 0080 +179 +100 206016 016 019 000 00
055500 1503N 06728W 8429 01558 0082 +179 +100 202018 018 020 001 00
055530 1503N 06726W 8429 01560 0082 +177 +100 205017 017 020 000 00
055600 1503N 06725W 8429 01560 0082 +180 +100 204017 018 022 001 00
055630 1503N 06723W 8433 01555 0085 +172 +100 200020 020 024 002 03
055700 1503N 06721W 8429 01559 0081 +179 +098 203017 018 020 002 03
055730 1504N 06719W 8427 01561 0081 +179 +097 201017 018 016 000 00
055800 1505N 06718W 8426 01558 0082 +180 +098 199017 017 017 000 00
055830 1505N 06716W 8429 01558 0081 +180 +098 204017 017 016 001 00
055900 1506N 06714W 8425 01562 0082 +180 +098 205018 019 020 000 00
055930 1507N 06713W 8429 01559 0081 +181 +099 206019 020 020 000 00
$$
;

[WxEnthus]

2:00 AM AST Wed Aug 3
Location: 16.3°N 67.5°W
Max sustained: 50 mph
Moving: WNW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb

Forgive my ignorance, I want to make sure I understand -- the location is where the NHC puts the center of circulation... and in the recon wind data, that would be where the wind shift took place, right? If so, what time was the wind shift recorded? Since there is a delay on both the recon data and the satellite images I'd like to line them up and see where that puts the center compared to the convection.

[Evil Jeremy]

Perhaps NHC will slid a tad west at 5am

Lets see what the globals say. Still to come are the CMC and EURO.

[WxEnthus]

Also, don't look now, but another random wind shift with recon.

Is that another wind shift or more like a lack of wind? The measurements were very weak as if they flew out completely out of the wind field on that turn. I'm genuinely asking because I really don't know, I'm still learning what all the wind patterns they find mean. Thanks!