ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[lebron23]

looks like HWRF shows a Carolina landfall

[lester]

Recon shows that its still a closed circulation

- לסטר

[lebron23]

Emily may have to go over the highest mountains in the DR

[jonj2040]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[SouthDadeFish]

Best wind shift I've seen in her entire lifetime.

[Cainer]

Looks like recon did manage to find the LLC, and it actually looks much better defined than earlier in the day. Very distinct wind shift, and the SW quadrant winds are a bit stronger than the last pass through. Center on the very western edge of convection still, not quite exposed but close.

[cycloneye]

Finnally a decent windshift.

[SouthDadeFish]

Finnally a decent windshift.

I'm wondering if its making a difference that they are flying at 5000 feet this time instead of 1000.

[SouthFloridawx]

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 030520
AF306 0705A EMILY HDOB 08 20110803
051000 1558N 06748W 8428 01554 0070 +188 +099 345011 011 005 001 00
051030 1557N 06750W 8429 01555 0072 +187 +099 344009 011 005 000 00
051100 1556N 06751W 8429 01556 0072 +190 +098 346008 009 005 001 00
051130 1554N 06752W 8428 01559 0073 +188 +098 342007 007 006 000 00
051200 1553N 06753W 8428 01556 0074 +186 +098 335005 006 005 001 00
051230 1552N 06754W 8429 01556 0072 +187 +098 329006 007 003 001 00
051300 1551N 06756W 8428 01558 0075 +185 +098 330007 007 005 000 00
051330 1549N 06757W 8426 01559 0075 +184 +097 327007 007 004 001 00
051400 1548N 06758W 8428 01557 0078 +179 +097 332009 010 004 000 00
051430 1547N 06759W 8429 01555 0079 +179 +097 344007 008 004 000 00
051500 1546N 06800W 8429 01558 0078 +183 +096 343008 009 002 001 00
051530 1544N 06802W 8429 01559 0078 +183 +096 343008 009 004 000 00
051600 1543N 06803W 8427 01561 0079 +181 +095 349009 009 006 000 00
051630 1542N 06804W 8428 01561 0081 +180 +095 346008 009 004 001 00
051700 1541N 06805W 8428 01558 0081 +178 +095 355007 008 007 000 00
051730 1539N 06807W 8428 01557 0081 +176 +094 356009 010 010 000 00
051800 1538N 06808W 8424 01564 0096 +157 +093 358006 008 012 003 00
051830 1537N 06809W 8430 01557 0095 +160 +090 352007 008 020 005 00
051900 1536N 06810W 8428 01560 0084 +175 +087 349006 007 007 002 00
051930 1535N 06811W 8425 01564 0083 +178 +086 357006 006 005 001 00
$$
;

[WeatherEmperor]

Does anybody have the latest 00Z GFDL yet?

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KNHC 030521
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052011
A. 03/05:00:40Z
B. 16 deg 19 min N
067 deg 25 min W
C. 850 mb 1474 m
D. 42 kt
E. 048 deg 44 nm
F. 120 deg 46 kt
G. 048 deg 53 nm
H. 1007 mb
I. 17 C / 1525 m
J. 20 C / 1527 m
K. 10 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 0705A EMILY OB 03
MAX FL WIND 46 KT NE QUAD 04:43:50Z
;

[jonj2040]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Dave]

DECODED VDM

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 05:21Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2011
Storm Name: Emily (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 03
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 5:00:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°19'N 67°25'W (16.3167N 67.4167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 170 miles (274 km) to the SSW (212°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,474m (4,836ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 42kts (~ 48.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 44 nautical miles (51 statute miles) to the NE (48°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 120° at 46kts (From the ESE at ~ 52.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 53 nautical miles (61 statute miles) to the NE (48°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 46kts (~ 52.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 4:43:50Z

[SouthFloridawx]

Looks like 280 degrees since 11pm.

[Texas Snowman]

well the angle of approach is such that a wobble here or there could bring it on shore any where

Charley is a good example of that...

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 030522
XXAA 53058 99163 70674 04367 99007 26215 19015 00059 26018 21012
92745 22408 19510 85480 194// 21505 88999 77999
31313 09608 80459
61616 AF306 0705A EMILY OB 04
62626 SPL 1634N06738W 0502 MBL WND 20013 AEV 20802 DLM WND 19510
006843 WL150 20513 083 REL 1633N06739W 045958 SPG 1634N06738W 050
227 =
XXBB 53058 99163 70674 04367 00007 26215 11867 19812 22850 194//
33843 184//
21212 00007 19015 11003 21512 22974 19514 33927 19510 44910 18510
55854 21006 66843 23504
31313 09608 80459
61616 AF306 0705A EMILY OB 04
62626 SPL 1634N06738W 0502 MBL WND 20013 AEV 20802 DLM WND 19510
006843 WL150 20513 083 REL 1633N06739W 045958 SPG 1634N06738W 050
227 =
;

[Dave]

DECODED DROPSONDE

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 05:22Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 05
Storm Name: Emily (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 04

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 5Z on the 3rd day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 16.3N 67.4W
Location: 171 miles (275 km) to the SSW (211°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Marsden Square: 043 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1007mb (29.74 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 26.2°C (79.2°F) 24.7°C (76.5°F) 190° (from the S) 15 knots (17 mph)
1000mb 59m (194 ft) 26.0°C (78.8°F) 24.2°C (75.6°F) 210° (from the SSW) 12 knots (14 mph)
925mb 745m (2,444 ft) 22.4°C (72.3°F) 21.6°C (70.9°F) 195° (from the SSW) 10 knots (12 mph)
850mb 1,480m (4,856 ft) 19.4°C (66.9°F) 19.4°C (66.9°F) 215° (from the SW) 5 knots (6 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 4:59Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...


Splash Location: 16.34N 67.38W
Splash Time: 5:02Z

Release Location: 16.33N 67.39W View map)
Release Time: 4:59:58Z

Splash Location: 16.34N 67.38W (
Splash Time: 5:02:27Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 200° (from the SSW)
- Wind Speed: 13 knots (15 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 195° (from the SSW)
- Wind Speed: 10 knots (12 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 843mb to 1006mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 158 gpm - 8 gpm (518 geo. feet - 26 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 205° (from the SSW)
- Wind Speed: 13 knots (15 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802


Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
1007mb (Surface) 26.2°C (79.2°F) 24.7°C (76.5°F)
867mb 19.8°C (67.6°F) 18.6°C (65.5°F)
850mb 19.4°C (66.9°F) 19.4°C (66.9°F)
843mb 18.4°C (65.1°F) 18.4°C (65.1°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
1007mb (Surface) 190° (from the S) 15 knots (17 mph)
1003mb 215° (from the SW) 12 knots (14 mph)
974mb 195° (from the SSW) 14 knots (16 mph)
927mb 195° (from the SSW) 10 knots (12 mph)
910mb 185° (from the S) 10 knots (12 mph)
854mb 210° (from the SSW) 6 knots (7 mph)
843mb 235° (from the SW) 4 knots (5 mph)




[TwisterFanatic]

HWRF there comes REALLY close to Florida, and hits the Carolinas.

[dwsqos2]

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/28 ... skewt.gif/

Time-sensitive link:

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/soundin ... STNM=78486

Someone observed this on another board, and this is actually his image. So don't accuse me of plagiarism. But, it's worth noting here. Observe the 300 mb winds out of the NW at 20 knots and the 850 mb winds out the NE at 27 knots. Very different velocities at very different altitudes, in other words there is quite strong 850-300 mb shear present. This is pretty obvious to me on visible satellite as well. Shear undercutting the outflow layer tends to be pretty noxious to tropical cyclones; see Tomas and Erika as examples.