ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[itsahurricane]

The NHC needs to shift the prediction-path farther West now.

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS may bring the gulf back into play

[Aric Dunn]

south and west this run...

[Bruton]

This storm is like Ernesto.

[Evil Jeremy]

54 hours out: More SW with a stronger ridge:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054m.gif

Comparable 18z pic: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060m.gif


66 hours out: Same position as comparable time frame from the 18z run. However, ridge is still stronger on 00z.


84 hours out: SSW of previous run, still in Central Bahamas.

[stormreader]

Still thinking about that post by cyclone giving the info from the ASCAT Pass. If this is now an open wave (or at least temporarily one) you would have to expect it to travel west with the strong easterly flow. Wxman mentioned that the center was pushed forward from under the circulation by that really strong flow. So open wave would mean a much more west track (possibly south of the the Cuban Coast???) Just an amateur here.

[ozonepete]

Hey cyclone,
I think it's the second number that indicates the time. I believe it was taken at 08/02 at 18Z.

The numbers I see are 0124-0125-0126-0127

Thanks, Luis. I though those were transmission times rather than when taken. What does the HIRLAM 08/02 18Z mean?

[midnight8]

Still thinking about that post by cyclone giving the info from the ASCAT Pass. If this is now an open wave (or at least temporarily one) you would have to expect it to travel west with the strong easterly flow. Wxman mentioned that the center was pushed forward from under the circulation by that really strong flow. So open wave would mean a much more west track (possibly south of the the Cuban Coast???) Just an amateur here.

Curious about the same thing here

[AdamFirst]

Still thinking about that post by cyclone giving the info from the ASCAT Pass. If this is now an open wave (or at least temporarily one) you would have to expect it to travel west with the strong easterly flow. Wxman mentioned that the center was pushed forward from under the circulation by that really strong flow. So open wave would mean a much more west track (possibly south of the the Cuban Coast???) Just an amateur here.

They're not going to classify this as an open wave.

[TYNI]

The NHC needs to shift the prediction-path farther West now.

In the latest advisory, they noted that the level of uncertainty in the 48 hour timeframe is higher than normal.

I think they are waiting for the next run of the ensembles to see the updated ridging forecast to make this call. JMHO

[ozonepete]

Well it's definitely all about the RECON now. Still think PR could get a nasty swipe from all of that convective activity expanding to the north.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HurricaneWarning92]

This is just one crazy storm.

[stormreader]

Still thinking about that post by cyclone giving the info from the ASCAT Pass. If this is now an open wave (or at least temporarily one) you would have to expect it to travel west with the strong easterly flow. Wxman mentioned that the center was pushed forward from under the circulation by that really strong flow. So open wave would mean a much more west track (possibly south of the the Cuban Coast???) Just an amateur here.

They're not going to classify this as an open wave.

No recon will have to get in there. And a new circulation center may develop soon anyway. Just interested to see if overnight tonight the course of the system is more characteristic of an open wave rather than a tropical storm being influenced by upper level flow.

[cycloneye]

Well it's definitely all about the RECON now

Will tell the real story better than ASCAT to see if is still a Tropical Cyclone or an open wave based on that pass.

[ozonepete]

Also, on the ASCAT, do they still use black for rain contamination? Sorry I'm really bad with ASCAT and promise to catch up on my own soon. It's hard to believe they got good readings under that incredible convection. Quikscat would have had mostly black arrows in a case like this.

[Dave]

AF306....take off for tonights mission to Emily

000
URNT15 KNHC 030410
AF306 0705A EMILY HDOB 01 20110803
040000 1742N 06449W 0086 ///// 0073 +275 +207 360000 000 /// /// 23
040030 1742N 06449W 0088 ///// 0076 +275 +206 360000 000 /// /// 23
040100 1742N 06449W 0082 ///// 0072 +271 +206 109008 013 /// /// 23
040130 1742N 06448W 9964 00103 0079 +267 +203 110022 023 /// /// 03
040200 1742N 06446W 9760 00298 0099 +250 +195 114020 021 /// /// 03
040230 1742N 06445W 9464 00561 0086 +231 +187 119025 029 /// /// 03
040300 1742N 06445W 9464 00561 0101 +230 +173 130033 034 /// /// 03
040330 1742N 06442W 8739 01278 0107 +213 +154 123031 033 /// /// 03
040400 1742N 06441W 8520 01502 0114 +194 +140 127029 029 /// /// 03
040430 1741N 06440W 8420 01608 0123 +186 +129 136029 030 /// /// 03
040500 1740N 06441W 8404 01625 0124 +185 +123 135028 029 /// /// 03
040530 1740N 06442W 8410 01617 0119 +185 +121 133030 031 /// /// 03
040600 1741N 06444W 8410 01614 0119 +182 +117 126031 031 /// /// 03
040630 1741N 06446W 8413 01610 0117 +184 +114 129031 031 /// /// 03
040700 1740N 06448W 8411 01611 0116 +185 +110 129031 032 /// /// 03
040730 1741N 06450W 8418 01604 0117 +184 +108 124032 033 /// /// 03
040800 1741N 06452W 8416 01604 0117 +180 +107 122031 031 /// /// 03
040830 1741N 06454W 8412 01612 0121 +180 +106 121032 032 /// /// 03
040900 1741N 06456W 8408 01614 0120 +179 +105 119032 033 /// /// 03
040930 1741N 06458W 8414 01611 0121 +176 +104 115032 032 /// /// 03
$$
;

[SapphireSea]

I do see what appears to be a very weak center just west of the convective mass, which supports what the pro mets have been saying about this. The deep easterly flow is disrupting the stacking of this system, and the current models may be picking up on this now which is basically going to cause a left bias. If the LLC becomes more removed, I suspect the convection will weaken some during the D-Min shortly, and if it does so there is a good chance it will open up into a wave/trough unofficially. As far as weakening/dissipation, tonight would probably be critical to see if it pans out. It is definitely wait and see right now.


The ASCAT does show very weak west winds just SW of the convective blob as I stated above.

[HurricaneWarning92]

so there was a shift east then east again then a tad back west and now it looks like another west shift is possible?

[NDG]

0z GFS's track is a good 50 miles west, also a little slower than previous 2 runs.

[Evil Jeremy]

102 hours out:
Decently further south than 18z run.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102m.gif