ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Aric Dunn]

Systems remains vertically tilted with low-level center outrunning the mid-level center. This is pretty clear from in the base velocity from San Juan where two distinct areas of rotation can be seen at different altitudes.

yep... low level flow too fast causing the shear ?

[NDG]

Still booking it right along to the west it would appear.

I agree, maybe not due west, but slightly north of due west.
Based at the 8 PM AST estimated position by the NHC, she would have had to start tracking on a 295-300 deg heading to catch on her 8 AM AST forecast position. Clearly she does not have that heading right now, 285 deg heading at most.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

00z NAM has significant more ridging again.. the trough retreats the the large ridge the east build back west again.. .... as a result emily is much farther west.. but not worried about track with NAM just the synoptics..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_012m.gif

Aric,

Do you feel as if the other models will follow as they have done the last couple of days. If so how much of a shift minor or big ones?

[Aric Dunn]

wow ok... the NAM build strong ridging and squashes emily.. lo
j/k not sure what its doing ... but ridginf is stronger

[SunnyThoughts]

lol @ squashes Emily...well uhm...thats new!

[Aric Dunn]

00z NAM has significant more ridging again.. the trough retreats the the large ridge the east build back west again.. .... as a result emily is much farther west.. but not worried about track with NAM just the synoptics..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_012m.gif

Aric,

Do you feel as if the other models will follow as they have done the last couple of days. If so how much of a shift minor or big ones?

this run seems to big difference from the 12 and 18z NAM in terms ok track... the synoptics is a medium change with the western extent of the ridging.. I would giving the trough has not pushed any farther south today and is north of where the models said it would stop. I would imagine at least a little shift back west. and of course the continued west track of emily will add to that.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

With a very strong ridge to the north I might buy into a little flat on the the top or north section of the storm but not squashing it.

[gatorcane]

Aric, I am not sure what you are seeing. If you take the 18Z 18 HR (since 00Z is 12 HR that you posted)....I actually see a little more ridging in the 18Z:

[Aric Dunn]

With a very strong ridge to the north I might buy into a little flat on the the top or north section of the storm but not squashing it.

well I said that becasue at the 500 mb level NAM split the vortex and i though it lost it .. but then it popped up north of DR

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, I am not sure what you are seeing. If you take the 18Z 18 HR (since 00Z is 12 HR that you posted)....I actually see a little more ridging in the 18Z:

look at the flow though and how fast the trough is retreating.. its quite clear when you toggle the two images in different tabs.

[SouthDadeFish]

The anticyclone displaced to the SW is causing 10-20 knots of westerly shear of Emily. Vorticity products from CIMSS shows the low and mid-level centers to be unstacked. Seems like she is still quite messy....

[SouthDadeFish]

Well the 00Z NAM is quite the fan of a pretty large ridge...

[Aric Dunn]

has it riding the north coast of Cuba..

[stormhunter7]

NAM 00Z has the trough uh... passsing Emily by to the north but keeping a weak Emily on the northern Cuban coast on a wnw track towards the Florida Straights.... still think tmrws 18z and 00Z models will have a better handle.. due to the G-VI data if the jet flies!

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[SouthDadeFish]

NAM 00Z has the trough uh... passsing Emily by to the north but keeping a weak Emily on the northern Cuban coast on a wnw track towards the Florida Straights.... still think tmrws 18z and 00Z models will have a better handle.. due to the G-VI data if the jet flies!

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

The NAM: "what trough?"

[NDG]

The anticyclone displaced to the SW is causing 10-20 knots of westerly shear of Emily. Vorticity products from CIMSS shows the low and mid-level centers to be unstacked. Seems like she is still quite messy....

To be close to exact, around 15 knots, but must important mid level shear is not a big problem.

[Aric Dunn]

NAM 00Z has the trough uh... passsing Emily by to the north but keeping a weak Emily on the northern Cuban coast on a wnw track towards the Florida Straights.... still think tmrws 18z and 00Z models will have a better handle.. due to the G-VI data if the jet flies!

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

yes that data will be very helpful... they should have flown it today..

by 00z tomorrow it will be approaching DR ... and if its still heading west by tomorrow through all the models out that turned it into eastern hispanola.. the west motion does not seem like its changing yet even though it should have already started to more WNW motion,..

[hurricanefloyd5]

Still booking it right along to the west it would appear.

I agree, maybe not due west, but slightly north of due west.
Based at the 8 PM AST estimated position by the NHC, she would have had to start tracking on a 295-300 deg heading to catch on her 8 AM AST forecast position. Clearly she does not have that heading right now, 285 deg heading at most.

WOW did the center just move or reform wswward?

[Dean4Storms]

Think FL is still definitely in play.

[Aric Dunn]

Think FL is still definitely in play.

yes