WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Tropical Depression

[StormingB81]

With the update jus tcoming down from the weather guys here..they calling for wind gusts up to 160 mph now!

[ManilaTC]

Take Care and be safe to all our Okinawa buddies.

The eye has become huge now and i wont be surprised if it reintensifies...
Not a EWRC fail this one, not at all.

[supercane]

Latest microwave suggestive of outer and inner eye walls:

Latest JTWC satellite bulletin with Dvorak intensity estimate of 5.0/90 kt:
TPPN11 PGTW 022346
A. TYPHOON 11W (MUIFA)
B. 02/2332Z
C. 24.2N
D. 132.8E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T5.0/5.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. 23NM WMG EYE OW SURR W/1.0
BND FEAT. YIELDS A 5.0 DT. PT AGREES. MET YIELDS A 5.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
HATHAWAY

[phwxenthusiast]

seems to be another EWRC happening, as suggested from another forum...

anyway, winds getting stronger in Daitojima, now up to 65kph...

[Chacor]

21z JTWC suggested the start of a fresh EWRC but noted it may not have time to complete the cycle.

[KWT]

Yep multiple eyewalls, sorta good in that its not going to be able to concentrate all the energy into one eyewall, bad because its gonna spread the winds out further...

[artist]

Latest microwave suggestive of outer and inner eye walls:
Latest JTWC satellite bulletin with Dvorak intensity estimate of 5.0/90 kt:
TPPN11 PGTW 022346
A. TYPHOON 11W (MUIFA)
B. 02/2332Z
C. 24.2N
D. 132.8E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T5.0/5.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. 23NM WMG EYE OW SURR W/1.0
BND FEAT. YIELDS A 5.0 DT. PT AGREES. MET YIELDS A 5.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
HATHAWAY

how many miles across is Okinawa?

[StormingB81]

Latest microwave suggestive of outer and inner eye walls:
Latest JTWC satellite bulletin with Dvorak intensity estimate of 5.0/90 kt:
TPPN11 PGTW 022346
A. TYPHOON 11W (MUIFA)
B. 02/2332Z
C. 24.2N
D. 132.8E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T5.0/5.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. 23NM WMG EYE OW SURR W/1.0
BND FEAT. YIELDS A 5.0 DT. PT AGREES. MET YIELDS A 5.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
HATHAWAY

how many miles across is Okinawa?

It is about 65 miles long and at the shortest is 5 miles wide

[supercane]

00Z JMA advisory (will replace with 5-day forecast when available):
ZCZC 284
WTPQ51 RJTD 030000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1109 MUIFA (1109)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030000UTC 24.2N 132.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 300NM EAST 200NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 040000UTC 24.8N 129.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 050000UTC 25.2N 126.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 060000UTC 26.8N 123.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 070000UTC 29.2N 120.8E 280NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
120HF 080000UTC 32.7N 120.1E 375NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT =
NNNN

[StormingB81]

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/radnowc/index.html?areaCode=218

Can't post the photo but you can see the begining edge of Typhoon Muifa on radar now..

[StormingB81]

JMA starting 1 hour positions

[JTE50]

You can track the eye vs. the JTWC forecast track here by ticking on the "tropical forecast points" box on this link. Looks just a tad to the right of the forecast.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t2/flash-avn.html

[KatDaddy]

Yall be safe on Okinawa. I will be watching from Texas and hoping for the best.

[JTE50]

Here is a link to a webcam from Chatan - just south of Kadena AFB according to my map. Looks like it is facing west out over the water.
http://www.wunderground.com/webcams/ShimaNaicher/2/show.html
http://webcam.ddo.jp/okinawa/ more views

[supercane]

JTWC 03Z advisory out early:
WTPN32 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 24.2N 132.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.2N 132.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 24.7N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 25.1N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 25.4N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 26.1N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 27.9N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 30.1N 122.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 32.9N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 24.3N 132.2E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 37 FEET.
AT 030000 TYPHOON CENTER LOCATED 295 NM ESE OF KADENA_AB.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.
//
NNNN

[Infdidoll]

Here is a link to a webcam from Chatan - just south of Kadena AFB according to my map. Looks like it is facing west out over the water.
http://www.wunderground.com/webcams/ShimaNaicher/2/show.html

It is facing West...I am further south of Chatan, but can see the Chatan area across the water. Wish I could set up a webcam! I'll charge up the video camera again, but if this thing hits at night, again, we're getting gypped on great video captures.

[StormingB81]

Just my opinion but I think JMA may have to adjust its track to the north...but thats just me...

[Fyzn94]

Take Care and be safe to all our Okinawa buddies.

The eye has become huge now and i wont be surprised if it reintensifies...
Not a EWRC fail this one, not at all.

That's quite a structure there. It's amazing how these beasts are beautiful from above, but ugly on the inside.

[JTE50]

Here is a link to a webcam from Chatan - just south of Kadena AFB according to my map. Looks like it is facing west out over the water.
http://www.wunderground.com/webcams/ShimaNaicher/2/show.html

It is facing West...I am further south of Chatan, but can see the Chatan area across the water. Wish I could set up a webcam! I'll charge up the video camera again, but if this thing hits at night, again, we're getting gypped on great video captures.

You can still film if the lights stay on outside and get the horizontal rain and the sound. There might be some early morning daytime hours too as Muifa is pulling away. Any change in speed will throw off the timing too so who really knows until 12 hours out. Even just filming inside with the howling wind audio would be pretty cool. Be safe and don't do what we do - roam around in a typhoon!

[Typhoon Hunter]

Wow! She's really popping out a huge eye now. Even if it passes south of Okinawa we could still be in for some strong winds given the wind field will expand.

Looks a beast!

Just at airport now waiting for my flight in 1 hour!