ATL: EMILY - Remnants

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#5181 Postby artist » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:54 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:GFDL running... scroll down to 18Z GFDL Emily:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfdl.html

definitely further west at this point.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#5182 Postby storm4u » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:55 pm

at hr36 the gfdl looks to be about 25 miles southwest of 12z
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#5183 Postby Vortex » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:55 pm

18z GFDL rolling...

H+42 further west near eastern cuba....


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MSL042.gif
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#5184 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:55 pm

Florida is most certianly not out of the woods as some of the most recent models runs indicate
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#5185 Postby Gustywind » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:55 pm

TS Emily with its outer bands moving towards Puerto Rico...
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#5186 Postby Kory » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:56 pm

Like I said earlier, the NHC track is pretty close to where it will go. There are going to be no big swings in the track westward since the ridge is building over most of the southeast US.
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#5187 Postby SouthDadeFish » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:56 pm

18Z GFDL very similar to 18Z HWRF. Definitive westward trend for 18Z suite....
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#5188 Postby Vortex » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:56 pm

H+60 strengthening rapidly just east of Andros

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MSL060.gif
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#5189 Postby storm4u » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:56 pm

hr84 brushes eastern florida
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#5190 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:57 pm

Full 18z GFDL track up here:
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_05.gif

Gets much closer to Florida this time.

Models flipping and flopping,
Florida needs to be watching.
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#5191 Postby Vortex » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:57 pm

H66 GFDL 18Z over andros and continuing to intensify.....



http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MSL066.gif
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#5192 Postby Steve H. » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:58 pm

That is a big shift west for the GFDL. Let's see what other models do. Need the 0z data now,
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#5193 Postby Vortex » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:58 pm

H+78 GFDL identical to HWRF...continues to strengthen just east of west palm beach...


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MSL078.gif
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#5194 Postby SouthDadeFish » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:58 pm

Both HWRF and GFDL bring Emily to a hurricane as it comes very close/landfalls in Florida.
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#5195 Postby Vortex » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:59 pm

H+90 just offshore FL parralleling the coast...


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MSL090.gif
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#5196 Postby Vortex » Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:00 pm

Potentially significant shift to the west on both the GFDL/HWRF 18z runs.....
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Re:

#5197 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:00 pm

Kory wrote:Like I said earlier, the NHC track is pretty close to where it will go. There are going to be no big swings in the track westward since the ridge is building over most of the southeast US.


The 18z models (so far) tend to disagree. This is very uncertain. We won't know where this is really going until Hispaniola.

Speaking of the NHC track, Emily needs to start moving WNW pronto to hit the next few forecast points. The NHC keeps expecting Emily to track WNW right after they issue the advisory, and Emily keeps charging to the west.

Image
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#5198 Postby storm4u » Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:01 pm

carolinas may have to start watching the models more in my opinion
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#5199 Postby sponger » Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:01 pm

Welcome to all newbies! You have the best site on the internet for discussion. Please keep asking questions as we all learn from the incredible knowledge base that comments here regularly.
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#5200 Postby SunnyThoughts » Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:01 pm

WAyyyy too close for comfort for our neighbors in South Fla.
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