ATL: EMILY - Remnants

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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#5141 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:21 pm

AdamFirst wrote:HWRF has been one of the more western models, hasn't it? 12z was more over the Gulf Stream...

yes it has continued to build a ridge to the north long enough to keep more wnw then NW ... for more than 5 runs now.
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#5142 Postby SouthDadeFish » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:21 pm

Ummm.... Uhoh.... Eyewall developing?

Image
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#5143 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:25 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
AdamFirst wrote:HWRF has been one of the more western models, hasn't it? 12z was more over the Gulf Stream...

yes it has continued to build a ridge to the north long enough to keep more wnw then NW ... for more than 5 runs now.


I thought the hwrf was, like the gfdl, one of the more East and recurving models.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#5144 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:26 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
AdamFirst wrote:HWRF has been one of the more western models, hasn't it? 12z was more over the Gulf Stream...

yes it has continued to build a ridge to the north long enough to keep more wnw then NW ... for more than 5 runs now.


I thought the hwrf was, like the gfdl, one of the more East and recurving models.


nope... been consistently west of all the others..
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5145 Postby artist » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:26 pm

madinina wrote:Thanks artist. In my part, it's ok, the road is a river, but this part is famous for that ...Each year, several times... For pictures of capital, that happen usualy in past, i remember when i was a child... But, it's a biginning of the rain season, and the flow are empty... And, when i see atlantic aera and coast of africa...

good to know. Sorry your road is a river though! lol
I know, looking toward Africa can be scary with what is coming off of there. Let's just hope this season isn't too bad.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5146 Postby Kory » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:26 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:Nice convective flre up occuring. Could this signal that Emily now has her internal affiars in order? She still looks like she is heading west at a decent clip.

Looks like its going just north of due west.
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#5147 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:27 pm

:uarrow: Aric says he saw an inner core forming earlier. Either way, Emily is organizing.
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Re:

#5148 Postby Kory » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:28 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:Ummm.... Uhoh.... Eyewall developing?

Image

Certainly looks that way. We may see a weak Category 1 before a landfall on Hispaniola.
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Re:

#5149 Postby lonelymike » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:30 pm

gatorcane wrote:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products


What a trough. Kudos to the GFS for picking up on this trough 7+ days out in the run.

The ECMWF just kept this system weaker so it got further west...but it also showed a trough, though not as strong.

There is a death ridge that is stubborn to depart across the mid section of the U.S, with an amplified troughiness pattern on the West and East Coasts of North America.

As long as we have that pattern, tough to get anything signficant to hit the U.S mainland. As soon as ridging tries to build in across the Western Atlantic, a new impulse comes down over top the death ridge and swings into the Western Atlantic....

But it is early August, and the long-wave pattern can shift down the road so we shouldn't get complacent by any means.



If it keeps the US safe the Death Ridge can hang around until the end of September :D
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#5150 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:30 pm

If that is in fact the 18z hwrf then that is the first time it has shown a Florida landfall
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#5151 Postby JPmia » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:31 pm

yeah that latest GFS is concerning.. little further west with swipe of the eastern portion of the Bahamas... anyone know how strong the storm is as it gets to the Bahamas?
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5152 Postby TheBurn » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:31 pm

22:15Z... she sure seems to be getting her act together.

Image
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#5153 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:32 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:If that is in fact the 18z hwrf then that is the first time it has shown a Florida landfall


it has a couple runs before... yesterday. I beleive..
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Re: Re:

#5154 Postby stormreader » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:33 pm

Kory wrote:
SouthDadeFish wrote:Ummm.... Uhoh.... Eyewall developing?

Image

Certainly looks that way. We may see a weak Category 1 before a landfall on Hispaniola.


Possible. Conditions aren't that bad in the central Carribean. A little dry air, not enough shear to write home about. Possible. But pressure still pretty high. Have to start seeing some real pressure falls I think.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#5155 Postby Steve H. » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:36 pm

I don't know where that model came from. The 18Z hwrf isn't out yet as far as I know. Can someone verify?
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#5156 Postby SouthDadeFish » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:37 pm

I posted a link.... It's from RaleighWx....
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#5157 Postby Vortex » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:38 pm

This is probablly going to be a very close call for portions of East Florida...
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Re: Re:

#5158 Postby Kory » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:39 pm

stormreader wrote:
Kory wrote:
SouthDadeFish wrote:Ummm.... Uhoh.... Eyewall developing?

Image

Certainly looks that way. We may see a weak Category 1 before a landfall on Hispaniola.


Possible. Conditions aren't that bad in the central Carribean. A little dry air, not enough shear to write home about. Possible. But pressure still pretty high. Have to start seeing some real pressure falls I think.

Yeah it still has about 10 millibars to drop before reaching category 1 criteria...
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#5159 Postby Vortex » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:39 pm

Steve H. wrote:I don't know where that model came from. The 18Z hwrf isn't out yet as far as I know. Can someone verify?



Trying to verify myself steve, Hwrf not usually out for another 30 or so....
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#5160 Postby SunnyThoughts » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:40 pm

I believe that is Allan Huffman's site, very respected met from NC I think thats his anyway.
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