ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Aric Dunn]

HWRF has been one of the more western models, hasn't it? 12z was more over the Gulf Stream...

yes it has continued to build a ridge to the north long enough to keep more wnw then NW ... for more than 5 runs now.

[SouthDadeFish]

Ummm.... Uhoh.... Eyewall developing?

[Evil Jeremy]

HWRF has been one of the more western models, hasn't it? 12z was more over the Gulf Stream...

yes it has continued to build a ridge to the north long enough to keep more wnw then NW ... for more than 5 runs now.

I thought the hwrf was, like the gfdl, one of the more East and recurving models.

[Aric Dunn]

HWRF has been one of the more western models, hasn't it? 12z was more over the Gulf Stream...

yes it has continued to build a ridge to the north long enough to keep more wnw then NW ... for more than 5 runs now.

I thought the hwrf was, like the gfdl, one of the more East and recurving models.

nope... been consistently west of all the others..

[artist]

Thanks artist. In my part, it's ok, the road is a river, but this part is famous for that ...Each year, several times... For pictures of capital, that happen usualy in past, i remember when i was a child... But, it's a biginning of the rain season, and the flow are empty... And, when i see atlantic aera and coast of africa...

good to know. Sorry your road is a river though! lol
I know, looking toward Africa can be scary with what is coming off of there. Let's just hope this season isn't too bad.

[Kory]

Nice convective flre up occuring. Could this signal that Emily now has her internal affiars in order? She still looks like she is heading west at a decent clip.

Looks like its going just north of due west.

[Evil Jeremy]

Aric says he saw an inner core forming earlier. Either way, Emily is organizing.

[Kory]

Ummm.... Uhoh.... Eyewall developing?

Certainly looks that way. We may see a weak Category 1 before a landfall on Hispaniola.

[lonelymike]

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What a trough. Kudos to the GFS for picking up on this trough 7+ days out in the run.

The ECMWF just kept this system weaker so it got further west...but it also showed a trough, though not as strong.

There is a death ridge that is stubborn to depart across the mid section of the U.S, with an amplified troughiness pattern on the West and East Coasts of North America.

As long as we have that pattern, tough to get anything signficant to hit the U.S mainland. As soon as ridging tries to build in across the Western Atlantic, a new impulse comes down over top the death ridge and swings into the Western Atlantic....

But it is early August, and the long-wave pattern can shift down the road so we shouldn't get complacent by any means.

If it keeps the US safe the Death Ridge can hang around until the end of September

[Bocadude85]

If that is in fact the 18z hwrf then that is the first time it has shown a Florida landfall

[JPmia]

yeah that latest GFS is concerning.. little further west with swipe of the eastern portion of the Bahamas... anyone know how strong the storm is as it gets to the Bahamas?

[TheBurn]

22:15Z... she sure seems to be getting her act together.

[Aric Dunn]

If that is in fact the 18z hwrf then that is the first time it has shown a Florida landfall

it has a couple runs before... yesterday. I beleive..

[stormreader]

Ummm.... Uhoh.... Eyewall developing?

Certainly looks that way. We may see a weak Category 1 before a landfall on Hispaniola.

Possible. Conditions aren't that bad in the central Carribean. A little dry air, not enough shear to write home about. Possible. But pressure still pretty high. Have to start seeing some real pressure falls I think.

[Steve H.]

I don't know where that model came from. The 18Z hwrf isn't out yet as far as I know. Can someone verify?

[SouthDadeFish]

I posted a link.... It's from RaleighWx....

[Vortex]

This is probablly going to be a very close call for portions of East Florida...

[Kory]

Ummm.... Uhoh.... Eyewall developing?

Certainly looks that way. We may see a weak Category 1 before a landfall on Hispaniola.

Possible. Conditions aren't that bad in the central Carribean. A little dry air, not enough shear to write home about. Possible. But pressure still pretty high. Have to start seeing some real pressure falls I think.

Yeah it still has about 10 millibars to drop before reaching category 1 criteria...

[Vortex]

I don't know where that model came from. The 18Z hwrf isn't out yet as far as I know. Can someone verify?

Trying to verify myself steve, Hwrf not usually out for another 30 or so....

[SunnyThoughts]

I believe that is Allan Huffman's site, very respected met from NC I think thats his anyway.