ZCZC 513
WTPQ51 RJTD 021800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1109 MUIFA (1109)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021800UTC 23.8N 133.3E GOOD
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 300NM EAST 200NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 031800UTC 24.4N 129.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 041800UTC 25.0N 126.7E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 051800UTC 26.4N 124.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 061800UTC 28.6N 121.9E 280NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
120HF 071800UTC 31.9N 120.4E 375NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT =
NNNN
WTPN32 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 23.8N 133.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8N 133.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 24.5N 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 24.9N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 25.4N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 26.0N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 27.8N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 30.1N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 33.4N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 24.0N 132.9E.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A CLEAR 21 NM IRREGULAR EYE. A 02/1703Z 89 GHZ AMSU
IMAGE SHOWS A SECONDARY CONCENTRIC CONVECTIVE BAND BEGINNING TO FORM
AROUND THE MAIN EYEWALL. HOWEVER, ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWS RELATIVELY DRIER AIR TO THE WEST OF TY 11W WHICH MAY
HINDER THE SECOND CONVECTIVE RING FROM COMPLETELY ENCOMPASSING THE
EYEWALL AND THEREFORE POSSIBLY INHIBIT ANOTHER EYE WALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE. TY 11W WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED NORTHWESTWARD BY A DEEP
LAYERED BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED APPROXIMATELY SOUTHEAST
OF HONSHU, JAPAN. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
DUE TO THE EYE FEATURE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS STEADY AT
110 KNOTS AS ALL REPORTING AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
DONE THE SAME. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 36 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.//
NNNN
WDPN32 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 33//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
(IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TY 11W HAS BEGUN TAKING A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK. THIS IS EVIDENCE THAT THE DEEP LAYER STEERING RIDGE TO THE
NORTH IS LIKELY BEGINNING ITS INFLUENCE ON TY MUIFA. A SYMMETRIC EYE
IS VERY APPARENT IN IR IMAGERY, AND A 03/0824 91 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATES THE DEEPEST CONVECTION LIES ALONG THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE EYE. THIS IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS ANOTHER BAND
OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN HALVES
OF TY MUIFA. RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES TY 11W CONTINUES
TO HAVE GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST IS ALSO INCREASING OUTFLOW IN THAT
DIRECTION. UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 11W IS IN A
REGION OF WEAK (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE (<20 KNOTS) AS 11W APPROACHES AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTHWEST.
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON IR IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 102 TO 115 KNOTS. TY 11W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. A. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TY 11W HAS BEGUN TO STEER MORE WESTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. A
SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD TURN IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12-36 HOURS
AS THIS RIDGE REMAINS POSITIONED OVER JAPAN. TY MUIFA WILL MAINTAIN
INTENSITY AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 48 ALONG-TRACK OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT (OHC) BEGINS TO DECREASE NORTH OF 25N AND COULD RESULT IN
SLIGHT WEAKENING. POLEWARD OUTFLOW MAY ALSO BE IMPACTED AS THE RIDGE
TO THE NORTH BUILDS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 11W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD DRIVEN BY THE DEEP LAYER STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO THE DROP IN
OHC. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPREAD NEARLY 90
DEGREES AFTER TAU 48 WITH EGRR AND ECMWF FORECASTING A STRONG RIDGE
TO THE NORTH, KEEPING TY 11W ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. GFS AND GFDN
ARE PROGGING A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER CHINA TO ERODE THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STEERING RIDGE AND FORCE 11W TO MOVE IN A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THIS FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND REMAINS CLOSE TO BUT JUST WEST OF CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
