ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[SouthDadeFish]

18Z GFS is virtually an update of the 12Z GFS. Shows it moving through the eastern Bahamas through 96 hours.

[caneseddy]

Looks like the GFS nudged a bit to the west, but not by much compared to the 12z

[Bocadude85]

18Z GFS is virtually an update of the 12Z GFS. Shows it moving through the eastern Bahamas through 96 hours.

Actually it is slightly further west..

[bamajammer4eva]

Looks more like its in the Northern Bahamas to me which is definitely west. Not sure where the Eastern Bahamas are located since its a North-south Island chain? JS

[underthwx]

http://www.beaumontweather.com/EMILY-1615-080211.gif



NOAA model projections 4:15 P.M. Tuesday

[caneseddy]

18z GFS a bit further west in the Bahamas but still a recurve

[plasticup]

my local met said he thinks this thing could get in the gom

That seemed more likely before Emily got organized in the last 36 hours. Right now it certainly isn't expected...

[SouthDadeFish]

Here is the 99 hour forecast from the 12Z GFS:



And here is the 96 hour forecast from the 18Z GFS, virtually the same location:



Maybe 5-10 miles farther west? It's negligible....

[tolakram]

Live 30 frame visible, rapid scan. Impressive looking, but also a little unorganized.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

[fci]

interesting look at HPC's forecast versus the GFS -
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayf ... ff_wbg.gif

HPC looks like they have Emily sitting right on the SE FL coast on Sat. Little further west than the NHC. I wouldn't be breathing a sigh of relief just yet in FL. That track is only about 75-100 miles of the SE FL coast. Won't take that much of a track adjustment to bring some nasty weather our way. Between Emily taking its time getting her act together and the uncertainty of what will happen when/if Emily crosses Hispaniola there is still a lot up in the air.

Can't disagree that you can never take anything for granted with the tropics.
Having said that, when the model solution concurs with the expected solution, I start to feel very good and confident that the threat is over.
Still....things can happen; however, it would have to be something really strange which is great since being in the opposite situation; waiting for something strange to take away the threat, is nerve-racking!
I now only wish that we would get some rainfall from Emily and that looks less and less likely.

[FireRat]

I'm going to be a little brave and take a shot at predicting Emily's future,
So far my take on this storm is this:
Haiti gets it on the 4th, perhaps severe floods and mudslides to follow. Carolinas should watch Emily in case it revives after emerging from Haiti/Dr and nears the Carolinas by August 7th-9th time frame. I agree that Florida's forecast is looking better with each model run. It will become clearer if the U.S. sees anything from Emily AFTER it crosses Haiti, it it survives the Carolinas would be at highest risk IMO.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[fci]

Wow awful pictures Artist, looks like there has been a fair amount of damage from Emily...

Shouldn't rule out the severity of the risk to Hispaniola even if it is just a disorganised TS, there'll be lots of rain and mudlisdes/landslides always a worry...

I agree, quite frankly, tropical waves and depressions have caused hardship in Hispanola; especially Haiti.
Any heavy rain-maker puts them at real risk.

[Kory]

I have to agree...looking better for Florida. While I don't think they are going to get the brunt of the impacts, some higher surf is to be expected. This could pull some drier continental air down into Florida, so they may end up with a dry weekend in some places. If anything, the Outer Banks of North Carolina will have to watch for landfall, but every place else I believe has escape a direct landfall.

[bamajammer4eva]

Here is the 99 hour forecast from the 12Z GFS:


Maybe 5-10 miles farther west? It's negligible....

True ends up the same but at 72 hrs it is more like 70 miles further west which is still not much difference unless you are in the Bahamas in which case it is a difference between a direct hit or a brush.

Here are the two links posted earlier. Open a tab for each and switch between the two and you can see the difference.


EDIT-Fixed links

72 hours out, 18z GFS SW of the 12z:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_072m.gif

12z at 78 hours out: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_078m.gif

[sponger]

Still to close for surfing and not close enough for rain. Just a little more right please!

[Gustywind]

Yes, I agree, there are a lot of factors. One of them is we had a lot of alert this month but for nothing, and like each time, Dean hurricane for exemple, people think it'll be for others islands but not for them. But, i repeat, for me the orange alert was too late, see diference between uadeloupe and Martinique alert. The orange alert was when people go home after the work. So, just the time to go to shop to buy some food, just in case, and it was the night..
Me, for example, i was yesterday in this foro but in the same time, MF tell us, it was just rain, like a lot of time this month, so we did'nt protect our work place. And we are in fort de france, in a ground floor...

Interresting analysis my friend i like it. You were speaking about Dean, and Dean is a perfect example. If you say that "people tkink it'll be for others" you're rightn, we're not good pupill in Guadeloupe too. Here, Hugo 1989 is always the reference but a simple twave can bring more death that a cat 4 or 5 cane, something to meditate. The citizens should keep in mind that in the tropics we must never underestimate a simple twave poor organized feature even a strong tstorm... tropics are so versatile and complexe!

[fci]

If Emily passes over Hispaniola becomes disorganized how do the models respond? What mean is....if a new center forms is the GOM still in play? Bear with me guys...Im trying to learn from yall.....

Well.....right now the GOM is not in play and there is no model support to say that it will be.
Sorry, have to wait until later for the GOM to get action, but there is a long season left and the GOM gets its fair share of attention.
Learning-wise; pay attention to the NHC, Pro Mets and the Models. Let them guide you and your thought process. They will tell you if there are changes arising or anticipated. Until that happens, sit back and lurk and when "GOM " comes up in their analysis, time to perk up!!!

[northjaxpro]

I have to agree...looking better for Florida. While I don't think they are going to get the brunt of the impacts, some higher surf is to be expected. This could pull some drier continental air down into Florida, so they may end up with a dry weekend in some places. If anything, the Outer Banks of North Carolina will have to watch for landfall, but every place else I believe has escape a direct landfall.

Yeah, HOT and dry air on flow on the back side of Emily will likely filter down into the FL peninsula this weekend. If Emily behaves and tracks east of the state in the Atlantic, subsidence will definitely be in full effect. As a matter of fact, may be nearing record high temps across areas of North FL by Sunday.

[fci]

my local met said he thinks this thing could get in the gom

and where might your Local Met be located???

[artist]

The problem is not only emily, it's the weather in general. It was rainning a lot this year and we didn't have a dry season. Climate change... But we hope, it 'll not rainning tomorrow or after tomorrow.

good to see you online. How was it there for your part of the island?