ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[madinina]

The problem is not only emily, it's the weather in general. It was rainning a lot this year and we didn't have a dry season. Climate change... But we hope, it 'll not rainning tomorrow or after tomorrow.

[HurricaneWarning92]

This set up (troughs) are almost a repeat of last season so far. If this continues we may not have many if any threats to U.S. mainland from the Atlantic all season. JMHO

for real. So much for "this year, we expect more threats along the U.S. east coast, because we dont expect the same pattern (the huge trough) as last year to occur in 2011"... So far, its a repeat of last year.

[Gustywind]

If i have others pics in Martinica or Guadeloupe i will post them.
Gustywind

Thanks. Good luck. This should also be a warning to people in Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to take all cautions they can.

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Absolulety you may be right, we never knows, let's hope that nothing happens.

[nicole]

No one answered me earlier......so ill ask again!

Is it still possible for this to get into the GOM?

[Bocadude85]

No one answered me earlier......so ill ask again!

Is it still possible for this to get into the GOM?

Anything is possible but at this time it is not very likely

[ozonepete]

Motion looks pretty much right on the forecast at the moment. And ANOTHER new convective burst that looks to be right over the LLC and like it could be the one to help consolidation of a center. Or just another deception? lol

[wxman57]

interesting look at HPC's forecast versus the GFS -
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayf ... ff_wbg.gif

HPC looks like they have Emily sitting right on the SE FL coast on Sat. Little further west than the NHC. I wouldn't be breathing a sigh of relief just yet in FL. That track is only about 75-100 miles of the SE FL coast. Won't take that much of a track adjustment to bring some nasty weather our way. Between Emily taking its time getting her act together and the uncertainty of what will happen when/if Emily crosses Hispaniola there is still a lot up in the air.

The center of a low is to the right of the "L", just above the horizontal part. That map is from 17Z, so it reflected the NHC's 15Z track taking Emily over Andros Island. Latest track is well east of there. It is looking better for Florida, though there remains a good deal of uncertainty as to Emily's future (track and intensity). It's even possible Emily could lose its circulation over the DR.

[Gustywind]

The problem is not only emily, it's the weather in general. It was rainning a lot this year and we didn't have a dry season. Climate change... But we hope, it 'll not rainning tomorrow or after tomorrow.

Yeah Madinina you're right but there's a lot of other factors. I wonder if people understand our plan of security ( Vigilance Meteo) with all these colors, that's pretty complicated to assimilate i tkink... too much colors ( green, yellow, orange, yellow, red, purple, grey, green... that's maybe too much for our citizens in a small island, we're not not so educated but often not good pupill too against the natural risk). Interresting and wide debat .

[UpTheCreek]

This set up (troughs) are almost a repeat of last season so far. If this continues we may not have many if any threats to U.S. mainland from the Atlantic all season. JMHO

for real. So much for "this year, we expect more threats along the U.S. east coast, because we dont expect the same pattern (the huge trough) as last year to occur in 2011"... So far, its a repeat of last year.

So far, but folks, it's only August 2nd! I would tend to make predictions like that well into September. The season is really just getting underway, ANYTHING can happen at this point in time!

[robbielyn]

i just looked at vapor and it looks like the llc is dead on to nhc forecast. its headed toward its next forecast point.

Water vapor is not how you track a system. The important bit is the LLC, which is not possible to identify using water vapor. Water vapor imagery can show you where moisture exists, but moisture does not equal a storm position.

I am so sorry was really tired just came home from work. I meant visible not vapor lol

[stormreader]

Here are some amazing pics (49) of Emily... spreading and devastating the streets of Fort De France (Martinica). Oh boy it's pretty impressive
Click on this link:http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.aspx?from=fr&to=en&a=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.martinique.franceantilles.fr%2Factualite%2Fenvironnement%2Ffort-de-france-une-capitale-traversee-par-les-eaux-02-08-2011-121131.php%3Fpos%3D2%23diaporama

Wow that's just terrible, Gusty. That's a LOT more damage than I expected. So sorry for those people.

Rainfall. Not organized at the time but dripping with tropical moisture.

[Gustywind]

Storm Emily: probes in Guadeloupe
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 133385.php
franceantilles.fr02.08.2011

On the night of Monday to Tuesday, the trajectory of the storm swerved to the South, particularly Dominica and Martinique. On our archipelago, the damage is limited to plant debris which essentially concerned the Basse-Terre.

Falling of trees and strong gusts of wind that mostly concentrated on the Basse-Terre: this is the balance sheet, still provisional, of the passage of tropical storm Emily, last night. Finally, the most active part of this phenomenon that is gradually passed the stage of tropical wave to the depression and tropical storm, finally prevented our archipelago, moving to the South.
A situation confirmed by the Prefecture of region noted Tuesday morning that "the winds and precipitation particularly marked South of the Basse-Terre and the Islands South (Marie-Galante, saintes and la Desirade, Editor's note).". Apparently, relief and road of Guadeloupe services interventions were especially limited to withdrawals of barriers on the roads. No major intervention would have thus taken place and no human victim would regrettably.
The road to the crossing reopened at 6 pm
At the end of ultimate recognition of crossing road, carried out at 6 p.m. by the teams of roads of Guadeloupe, this axis was reopened to traffic, after its preventive closure Monday night.
In this context, and while the tropical storm "Emily" gradually deviates from the Antillean arc, the orange level cyclone alert was lowered on yellow alert, before finally becoming at noon a yellow alert for heavy rain and storm. Caution however: If the Guadeloupe was averted by the storm, the weather will persist until Thursday, with new precipitation. A risk of flooding is still possible on soils saturated water. Especially in the sector of les Abymes, great-funds, Sainte-Rose or near the mountain.
Pavement, they can be slippery and genteel plant debris: increased vigilance is therefore requested to motorists. Finally, it is noted that the sea remains strong with large hollow. On the Caribbean front.

[stormreader]

interesting look at HPC's forecast versus the GFS -
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayf ... ff_wbg.gif

HPC looks like they have Emily sitting right on the SE FL coast on Sat. Little further west than the NHC. I wouldn't be breathing a sigh of relief just yet in FL. That track is only about 75-100 miles of the SE FL coast. Won't take that much of a track adjustment to bring some nasty weather our way. Between Emily taking its time getting her act together and the uncertainty of what will happen when/if Emily crosses Hispaniola there is still a lot up in the air.

The center of a low is to the right of the "L", just above the horizontal part. That map is from 17Z, so it reflected the NHC's 15Z track taking Emily over Andros Island. Latest track is well east of there. It is looking better for Florida, though there remains a good deal of uncertainty as to Emily's future (track and intensity). It's even possible Emily could lose its circulation over the DR.

Thanks WXman. That a simple piece of info (about the center of the low and the L on the map) that had never been explained to me. I like it.

[underthwx]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... 14W_sm.gif


5:00 P.M.NHC

[stormreader]

Nice chart Nicole. It shows that Emily forecast track will really be the exception to the rule of Aug trop storms in her position. Only a very few have taken a track east of Fl in August from that position according to your post. Shows the predominant west tendency which usually exists in Aug.

[madinina]

Yes, I agree, there are a lot of factors. One of them is we had a lot of alert this month but for nothing, and like each time, Dean hurricane for exemple, people think it'll be for others islands but not for them. But, i repeat, for me the orange alert was too late, see diference between uadeloupe and Martinique alert. The orange alert was when people go home after the work. So, just the time to go to shop to buy some food, just in case, and it was the night..
Me, for example, i was yesterday in this foro but in the same time, MF tell us, it was just rain, like a lot of time this month, so we did'nt protect our work place. And we are in fort de france, in a ground floor...

[Evil Jeremy]

72 hours out, 18z GFS SW of the 12z:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072m.gif

12z at 78 hours out: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_078m.gif

[Portastorm]

You will notice that I deleted the initial post with the chart but kept the response from stormreader. Why? Well, we have asked members repeatedly not to post images without any text reference or information as to WHY the image is relevant. Despite our many notices, the practice continues.

Please folks, when you post an image, offer a sentence or two explanation on why you are posting it and its relevance to the ongoing discussion.

Thanks!

[underthwx]

note that the 5pm NHC chart I posted up above shows Emily emerging the island as a depression......makes me wonder if it will survive.

[nicole]

You will notice that I deleted the initial post with the chart but kept the response from stormreader. Why? Well, we have asked members repeatedly not to post images without any text reference or information as to WHY the image is relevant. Despite our many notices, the practice continues.

Please folks, when you post an image, offer a sentence or two explanation on why you are posting it and its relevance to the ongoing discussion.

Thanks!

Sorry!! Still new here.....