ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Sanibel]

You can see a linear divide to the NW quadrant on satellite.

[JPmia]

Latest NHC track is 40-50 miles farther offshore southeast Florida.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/gr ... p_5W.shtml

Yes I see that and....now NHC mentioning it is far offshore the U.S. mainland....they don't indicate it is a high uncertainty forecast.....

THIS STEERING PATTERN CALLS FOR A GRADUAL TURN TO
NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN SPEED. MOST OF THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH SHOWS EMILY MOVING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST

Yep they're sounding more confident about the recurve now.

[Bocadude85]

What a trough. Kudos to the GFS for picking up on this trough 7+ days out in the run.

The ECMWF just kept this system weaker so it got further west...but it also showed a trough, though not as strong.

There is a death ridge that is stubborn to depart across the mid section of the U.S, with an amplified troughiness pattern on the West and East Coasts of North America.

As long as we have that pattern, tough to get anything signficant to hit the U.S mainland. As soon as ridging tries to build in across the Western Atlantic, a new impulse comes down over top the death ridge and swings into the Western Atlantic....

But it is early August, and the long-wave pattern can shift down the road.

Before we give kudos to the GFS I think we should wait and see where Emily makes landfall on Hispanola and how the system interacts with the high terrain of the island.

[jlauderdal]

Latest NHC track is 40-50 miles farther offshore southeast Florida.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/gr ... p_5W.shtml

i hope it verifies, flying out of MIA on saturday for a week of fishing in NW Wisconsin, dont need any delays...150 miles offshore, west side of a weak system=business as usual at the airport

[stormreader]

Good Post Gator about the death ridge across the central US and resulting troughiness along the Atlantic Coast. Was it yesterday that the forecast for Dallas was 113 degrees??? Don't know if it made it that high, but it shows you how strong the ridge is over the US.

[caneman]

Good job so far GatorCane. And, I might add - good job to the GFS so far, which is often an unfair frequent target on this board. 'Tis why we have multiple models Lets see if it is right in the end though.

[stormreader]

What a trough. Kudos to the GFS for picking up on this trough 7+ days out in the run.

The ECMWF just kept this system weaker so it got further west...but it also showed a trough, though not as strong.

There is a death ridge that is stubborn to depart across the mid section of the U.S, with an amplified troughiness pattern on the West and East Coasts of North America.

As long as we have that pattern, tough to get anything signficant to hit the U.S mainland. As soon as ridging tries to build in across the Western Atlantic, a new impulse comes down over top the death ridge and swings into the Western Atlantic....
Your right Boca that its not completely over yet. Heck I would like to see my hunch of E GOM materialize. But its looking less likely now.
But it is early August, and the long-wave pattern can shift down the road.

Before we give kudos to the GFS I think we should wait and see where Emily makes landfall on Hispanola and how the system interacts with the high terrain of the island.

[Gustywind]

Sad news in Martinica, one man dead (confirmed by our local radio at 1PM)
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/martinique.shtml
- Martinique : Update

•By Virek <matthew at virek.net>
•Date: Tue, 2 Aug 2011 12:02:42 -0400

Waiting for officiel information but there have been some fairy serious
flooding, a large landslide in an area already affected by ground movements
(Morne Calbasse) which required 4 families to evacuate their houses this
morning around 5am.

Just heard from Twitter that a man, 62, has been killed in his house by
electrocution after flooding. I don't know the circumstances yet.

The French Meteo website is being hammered and its difficult to get any info
from it at the moment.

Around me, all is calm now. The rain has pretty much stopped and things seem
to be starting to get back to normal, at least cars are starting to circulate.


Matthew

[KWT]

Yep there is more confuidence with the recurve through or close to the Bahamas, I'd be wary if I was in the N.Bahamas, conditions IMO look pretty good aloft up there.

[Gustywind]

The storm Emily made a victim to Volga Beach
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 121119.php
franceantilles.fr02.08.2011

A 62-year-old man was found dead electrocution in his home flooded at Fort-de-France, while Martinique was Tuesday heavy rains and flooding due to tropical storm Emily on the Caribbean, was learned from the fire.
Relief found the man lying in the water, an extension cord in hand, at his home in the popular neighbourhood Volga, which is under water.

[artist]

interesting look at HPC's forecast versus the GFS -
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayf ... ff_wbg.gif

[gatorcane]

Yep there is more confuidence with the recurve through or close to the Bahamas, I'd be wary if I was in the N.Bahamas, conditions IMO look pretty good aloft up there.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I agree, the upper-level conditions look good across the Northern Bahamas.....will be interesting to see what emerges from the coast of Hispaniola as if the structure is still good, wouldn't be surprised if it could become a hurricane near the Northern/Central Bahamas...hopefully east of them as that is still a possibility with the SSW/NNE orientation of the 700MB flow from the trough in a few days from now.

Would see some good surf across the East Coast of Florida if this happens....for all of you surfers out there.

[artist]

The storm Emily made a victim to Volga Beach
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 121119.php
franceantilles.fr02.08.2011

A 62-year-old man was found dead electrocution in his home flooded at Fort-de-France, while Martinique was Tuesday heavy rains and flooding due to tropical storm Emily on the Caribbean, was learned from the fire.
Relief found the man lying in the water, an extension cord in hand, at his home in the popular neighbourhood Volga, which is under water.

Gusty, I am so sorry to hear that.

[Buckeye41]

Hi everybody! I've feverishly read just about the whole thread- leaving on a cruise on Sunday from Miami. I'm a little concerned about my flight- flying from Detroit to MIA with arrival scheduled around 10am Sunday morning. Looks like most of the excitement *should* be well past Miami by that time correct?

[artist]

Hi everybody! I've feverishly read just about the whole thread- leaving on a cruise on Sunday from Miami. I'm a little concerned about my flight- flying from Detroit to MIA with arrival scheduled around 10am Sunday morning. Looks like most of the excitement *should* be well past Miami by that time correct?

from what is being issued now, I would think so. Have fun! And welcome to s2k!

[Fyzn94]

The storm Emily made a victim to Volga Beach
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 121119.php
franceantilles.fr02.08.2011

A 62-year-old man was found dead electrocution in his home flooded at Fort-de-France, while Martinique was Tuesday heavy rains and flooding due to tropical storm Emily on the Caribbean, was learned from the fire.
Relief found the man lying in the water, an extension cord in hand, at his home in the popular neighbourhood Volga, which is under water.

I was afraid this would happen sooner or later.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Well if the GFS is right as to the strength of that trough and weakness in the ridge, then the recurve scenario will pan out. -hopefully so for FL.

That means an awesome, clear day setting up to do Busch Gardens on Saturday!

[Gustywind]

Here are some amazing pics (49) of Emily... spreading and devastating the streets of Fort De France (Martinica). Oh boy it's pretty impressive
Click on this link:http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.aspx?from=fr&to=en&a=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.martinique.franceantilles.fr%2Factualite%2Fenvironnement%2Ffort-de-france-une-capitale-traversee-par-les-eaux-02-08-2011-121131.php%3Fpos%3D2%23diaporama

[SouthDadeFish]

New blow-up over what looks to be the center:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

[jpigott]

interesting look at HPC's forecast versus the GFS -
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayf ... ff_wbg.gif

HPC looks like they have Emily sitting right on the SE FL coast on Sat. Little further west than the NHC. I wouldn't be breathing a sigh of relief just yet in FL. That track is only about 75-100 miles of the SE FL coast. Won't take that much of a track adjustment to bring some nasty weather our way. Between Emily taking its time getting her act together and the uncertainty of what will happen when/if Emily crosses Hispaniola there is still a lot up in the air.