WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Tropical Depression

KWT · #421 Postby **KWT** » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:19 am

Its axtually pretty unusual to see such strong agreement on the track right out to 120hrs, they are all pretty much have the same track!

#422 Postby **RobWESTPACWX** » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:21 am

KWT wrote:Its axtually pretty unusual to see such strong agreement on the track right out to 120hrs, they are all pretty much have the same track!

You know really good point, and also noting that there all in agreement of a track south of the model consensus at this time. Its good though that they are all on the same page, is kind of a pain when you get conflicting forecast. One team one fight right.

#423 Postby **RobWESTPACWX** » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:25 am

Opps missed one more, that makes six agencies now, so who is the official forecast? HA! Thats a topic for another time.

#424 Postby **StormingB81** » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:27 am

They calling for wind gust up to 150 mph here now!

KWT · #425 Postby **KWT** » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:44 am

Amazing agreement, its hard enough tro get 2 of the agencies to agree with each other, but to havbe total agreement is unusual!

now lets watch as Muifa decides to bust the whole lot!

dexterlabio · #426 Postby **dexterlabio** » Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:04 am

Eye starting to clear out now. Pave way to the new and larger eye of Muifa. :lol:

Also began the westward shift now (and eye clearing out as seen here)

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/vsmtsatw.html

Infdidoll · #427 Postby **Infdidoll** » Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:05 am

StormingB81 wrote:They calling for wind gust up to 150 mph here now!

Who is? Kadena Weather?

Maybe if we got a direct hit...Man-Yi brought 150 mph gusts, but that was a direct hit.

KWT · #428 Postby **KWT** » Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:07 am

Looks like its just starting to get a bit better organised now, nice large eye has emerged, probably will ramp back upto a 4 at some point today.

#429 Postby **StormingB81** » Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:18 am

Infdidoll wrote:
StormingB81 wrote:They calling for wind gust up to 150 mph here now!

Who is? Kadena Weather?

Maybe if we got a direct hit...Man-Yi brought 150 mph gusts, but that was a direct hit.

yes kadena weather is....even if it missed us by 18nm thats the whole eye wall with no break..that will be bad

Chacor · #430 Postby **Chacor** » Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:37 am

Wow, Muifa does look impressive on IR sat now. The JTWC forecast has definitely expanded the wind field greatly.

artist · #431 Postby **artist** » Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:38 am

you guys take care and stay safe. Be sure to report in when you can once it is all over if you lose communications. How is the communications systems there during a storm normally?

#432 Postby **supercane** » Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:59 am

ZCZC 018
WTPQ51 RJTD 021200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1109 MUIFA (1109)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021200UTC 23.3N 133.8E GOOD
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 300NM EAST 200NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 031200UTC 24.3N 130.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 041200UTC 24.7N 128.3E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 051200UTC 26.0N 126.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 061200UTC 27.8N 123.8E 280NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
120HF 071200UTC 30.0N 122.3E 375NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT =
NNNN

TPPN11 PGTW 021207
A. TYPHOON 11W (MUIFA)
B. 02/1132Z
C. 23.3N
D. 133.8E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY LG WITH
SMALL BANDING FEATURE YIELDED A 5.5 DT. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO
DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
02/0824Z 23.0N 134.1E SSMS
QUAST

#433 Postby **StormingB81** » Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:59 am

artist wrote:you guys take care and stay safe. Be sure to report in when you can once it is all over if you lose communications. How is the communications systems there during a storm normally?

I am sure once we hit tropical storm force the TV will start to go in and out and like all storms once it gets uo there it will all go out.

euro6208 · #434 Postby **euro6208** » Tue Aug 02, 2011 8:44 am

yes the eye is starting to clear with dvorak estimates at 6.0. i would place the intensity at 120 knots sustained 1 minute winds for this moderately strengthening typhoon which should intensity a lot more...

KWT · #435 Postby **KWT** » Tue Aug 02, 2011 8:46 am

Chacor wrote:Wow, Muifa does look impressive on IR sat now. The JTWC forecast has definitely expanded the wind field greatly.

It is indeed, the models did forecast strengthening around this point and it seems like that is exactly what is starting to happen...

#436 Postby **StormingB81** » Tue Aug 02, 2011 8:58 am

JTWC should be coming out with the next warning here very soon..wonder what it will be up to...

#437 Postby **StormingB81** » Tue Aug 02, 2011 9:24 am

Suprise....JTWC still has the winds at 110 knots....

KWT · #438 Postby **KWT** » Tue Aug 02, 2011 9:27 am

Wow they kept it at 110kts?

Hmm sounds a bit on the low side to me...

#439 Postby **StormingB81** » Tue Aug 02, 2011 9:27 am

I am waiting to pu the warning up they have only updated the graphic..

underthwx · #440 Postby **underthwx** » Tue Aug 02, 2011 9:34 am

just logged on.........yall stay safe.....

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