WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Tropical Depression

[StormingB81]

Yes it is looking like it is supposed to be right over at about 3am in the morning...I was hoping for a daytime one as well..

EDIT: and as soon as I posted this went back to the JMA page now they say 9am for the closest point..That would be much better (not that its better but I rather have it come in daylight hours)

[Typhoon Hunter]

morning, folks.... saying hi to everyone. newbie here from bicol region, philippines.... muifa is definitely looking good today, huh?

Hey! Welcome to S2K, great to see you on here (@typhoonfury)

Yike, Muifa is starting to look big and angry again, will be very beautiful if that big eye clears out - but not good for those in its path!



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Storming - way to early to tell if this will be daytime or nighttime CPA. We should get a much better idea about 12hrs prior.

[dexterlabio]

Looks like this is ready to rock again. Dry slots on its core has disappeared and is now showing a nice and tight banding to the center, with that much larger "eye" forming. 2 or 3 days in water and what can you expect? BUT still I wish all those people along its tracks especially in Okinawa will be ready for this. The way I see this, Muifa might bring more intense winds than what Songda did last May. Just saying.




Incidentally, the strong outflow from Muifa weakened the TD west of Luzon into an area of low pressure...and the strong outflow from this typhoon is pulling the wet monsoon across Luzon, along with the remnants of the TD...bringing heavy rains over Western and Southern Luzon especially here in the National Capital Region. Too bad that this country has always been affected by storms, directly or indirectly. Classes in all levels were suspended in many areas.

[ManilaTC]

Yeah, and a series of Thunderstorms have been hitting us since yesterday and the whole day.
Hope nothing will be intense enough to be tornadic.

[phwxenthusiast]

Morning all! Just got my cup of tea and opening all the satellite links, agency forecasts and models - gotta love the morning routine at this time of year (as long as not facing down the barrel of a super typhoon!)

Muifa really looks much better this morning, seems to have sorted out it's inner problems and I'd now classify this as a successful EWRC.
JMA 18z were going for a direct hit on Okinawa still, their 00z update will be out in half an hour. I'll post again soon once I've gone through everything!

james, can you please give me the link for NMC from Beijing?? i was browing CMA last night and couldn't find updates for typhoons...

thanks!

[Typhoon Hunter]

Morning all! Just got my cup of tea and opening all the satellite links, agency forecasts and models - gotta love the morning routine at this time of year (as long as not facing down the barrel of a super typhoon!)

Muifa really looks much better this morning, seems to have sorted out it's inner problems and I'd now classify this as a successful EWRC.
JMA 18z were going for a direct hit on Okinawa still, their 00z update will be out in half an hour. I'll post again soon once I've gone through everything!

james, can you please give me the link for NMC from Beijing?? i was browing CMA last night and couldn't find updates for typhoons...

thanks!

Here it is - http://map.weather.gov.cn/typhoon/index.html - it's an interactive set up.

In the pop up box the red option is CMA, not sure what the green one is (guan dao yu bao), dark blue is JMA and light blue is UK forecast (UKMET?!?!). Click on select forecasts points on the map for data!

[StormingB81]

Looks like this storm is growing...

[oaba09]

Looks like this is ready to rock again. Dry slots on its core has disappeared and is now showing a nice and tight banding to the center, with that much larger "eye" forming. 2 or 3 days in water and what can you expect? BUT still I wish all those people along its tracks especially in Okinawa will be ready for this. The way I see this, Muifa might bring more intense winds than what Songda did last May. Just saying.




Incidentally, the strong outflow from Muifa weakened the TD west of Luzon into an area of low pressure...and the strong outflow from this typhoon is pulling the wet monsoon across Luzon, along with the remnants of the TD...bringing heavy rains over Western and Southern Luzon especially here in the National Capital Region. Too bad that this country has always been affected by storms, directly or indirectly. Classes in all levels were suspended in many areas.

Government offices and classes on all colleges in the capital region were also suspended a few hours ago...

[StormingB81]

JMA Track shifted a little south....but it has been doing that on and off the last couple of days

[Chacor]

Inot sure what the green one is (guan dao yu bao)

At best guess, it's the forecasts from NWS WFO Guam.

[StormingB81]

Okinawa is now under TCCOR 3

[Typhoon Hunter]

At best guess, it's the forecasts from NWS WFO Guam.

Yes that makes perfect sense! I can't see a Chinese govt. agency being too keen on quoting US Military products (ie JTWC)

[Infdidoll]

Wow! Looking like hot stuff on the last image. I thought the EWRC was going to kill it, last night. I was ready to wake up and see something that looked like Ma-On on its deathbed, last night, but Muifa just keeps looking better and better. That time of day, I suppose!

[Infdidoll]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 943.1mb/102.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.7 5.8

Sure we'll see those numbers increasing this evening.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Wow! Looking like hot stuff on the last image. I thought the EWRC was going to kill it, last night. I was ready to wake up and see something that looked like Ma-On on its deathbed, last night, but Muifa just keeps looking better and better. That time of day, I suppose!

Yeah, and ominously it looks like it's starting the turn to the north west per the CWB MTSAT loop!

[euro6208]

now its that time. the time for muifa to strengthen back to monster monster.

[dexterlabio]

Looks so fine now.

[StormingB81]

alls I can say is wow...the last couple of hours that eye has opened up..it looks like it could be a super typhoon again....It maybe stronger then what jtwc is saying the way it looks like it keeps strengthening

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 020900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1109 MUIFA (1109)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020900UTC 23.2N 134.0E GOOD
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 300NM EAST 200NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 030900UTC 24.5N 131.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 040600UTC 24.7N 128.9E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 050600UTC 26.0N 126.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

WTPN32 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 22.7N 134.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 134.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 23.7N 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 24.2N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
225 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 24.7N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
225 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 25.1N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 26.5N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 28.4N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 31.0N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 23.0N 133.9E.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED EYE WITH SLIGHT WEST OF NORTH
MOVEMENT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A 02/0430Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ IMAGE
ALSO SHOWS A WELL DEFINED EYE WITH CONCENTRIC BANDING. RECENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES TY 11W HAS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AS
WELL AS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO BENEFITTING FROM
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST. 02/00Z UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TY 11W
IS CURRENTLY IN A REGION OF WEAK (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). VWS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK AS 11W APPROACHES AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTHWEST OF
OKINAWA. TY 11W HAS BEEN UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP
LAYER RIDGE TO THE EAST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER, RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH HAS
BEGUN TO INFLUENCE TY 11W. DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS THIS DEEP
LAYERED RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STEER 11W MORE WESTERLY. THIS RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO STEER 11W WESTERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH
TAU 48. AFTER TAU 72, AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM CHINA WILL WEAKEN
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS RIDGE, AND TY 11W WILL LIKELY TAKE ON A
MORE NORTHERLY MOTION. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT IN LATER
TAUS, WITH EGRR AND ECMWF MAINTAINING A STRONG STEERING RIDGE AND
KEEPING TY 11W'S TRACK MORE WESTWARD WHILE GFS AND GFDN FAVOR A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK IN ANTICIPATION OF A STRONGER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO CONSENSUS AND
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 020600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300ZAND
030900Z.

[RobWESTPACWX]

A quick look around at the various agencies warning on this storm, rather redundant at how many go up across the pacific when a storm this size goes in to the ECS.