ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Gustywind]

Given the latest numbers from NRL Navy... 91L has now 30kts.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... m&PROD=vis
20110801.1645.91LINVEST.30kts-1008mb-139N-572W

[HurricaneWarning92]

The hype that this storm was going to be a possible cat. 2 or 3 brought our expectations way up that now looking at the conditions, seems like most of us are just disappointed, and tired, and frustrated, and annoyed... and need i go further? Ive literally been checking on storm2k for this storm every hour since Friday.

[KWT]

SFMR is indicating if this becomes classified we will have Emily. Plenty of TS force winds.

I'm not surprised its got that high winds as the MLC has been strong for quite a while and so must be whipping the winds up, but clearly at the moment its struggling to get that circulation going. If it can though there can be no doubt it'll become a TS...

Dry air is a problem I suspect as SDF stated.

[DonWrk]

From Jim Cantore an hour ago via Twitter.

At this point I wouldn't be surprised to see 91L make it through the islands as an unnamed entity.

[Aric Dunn]

geez where are they going.. lol

nothing over there..

[bella_may]

Ivan....when you see the CMC barking up the same tree on consecutive runs and if the EURO follows here in a few then it might not be a bad track......funny all the talk of recurve has left the building...

Oh it still might recurve....right into the Gulf

not good!!

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

IMO, a significant bump in latitude to @15.3N from 12z position of 13.9N. This may allow 91L to skim the N coast of Hispaniola rather than going through it.

Blown Away, the significant jump isn't due to the storm suddenly changing forward direction, merely reestimating the center. It will likely happen again as the true low level becomes more obvious (see Aric's posts).

At the moment, with an unclassified system, all the models are fun and games anyway. We need a definitive center to track, with true storm strength input, and then the models will be able to let us know path a bit better. I highly suspect the more northern tracks in the short and mid term are not going to pan out, as the system has remained weak to date. IMHO
(S2K disclaimer)

[SouthDadeFish]

I believe we are witnessing The Great Merge of 2011.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

[Aric Dunn]

From Jim Cantore an hour ago via Twitter.

At this point I wouldn't be surprised to see 91L make it through the islands as an unnamed entity.

well yeah its about to cross the islands in the next 4 to 5 hours..

[KWT]

geez where are they going.. lol

nothing over there..

Are they heading over to the MLC?

Wouldn't be surprised if the system gets into the Caribbean as a strong wave...but its got too much going for it not to develop at some point, its just a matter of whether it does in the Caribbean or near the Bahamas IMO...

[RL3AO]

737
URNT15 KNHC 011736
AF305 04EEA INVEST HDOB 09 20110801
172600 1503N 05907W 9761 00296 0098 +225 +164 128035 035 034 002 00
172630 1502N 05906W 9762 00295 0099 +221 +165 127034 035 036 002 00
172700 1501N 05905W 9757 00301 0100 +213 +165 130034 035 038 004 00
172730 1500N 05904W 9762 00295 0098 +220 +163 129036 037 039 004 00
172800 1459N 05903W 9761 00294 0098 +216 +160 134036 036 038 005 00
172830 1458N 05902W 9757 00300 0101 +209 +158 130035 036 037 008 00
172900 1457N 05901W 9761 00296 0101 +205 +154 127036 037 041 014 00
172930 1456N 05900W 9755 00301 0101 +200 +151 128032 033 043 018 00
173000 1455N 05859W 9764 00293 0102 +197 +148 131030 032 042 020 00
173030 1454N 05858W 9760 00299 0103 +195 +146 130030 031 043 020 00
173100 1453N 05858W 9755 00303 0103 +196 +144 131029 031 050 030 00
173130 1453N 05857W 9759 00303 0104 +196 +142 140031 032 049 031 00
173200 1452N 05856W 9761 00297 0104 +201 +141 143033 034 039 017 00
173230 1451N 05855W 9761 00298 0103 +203 +140 141034 035 040 010 00
173300 1450N 05854W 9760 00298 0101 +214 +139 144035 037 038 011 00
173330 1449N 05853W 9761 00298 0100 +223 +140 145038 039 039 005 00
173400 1448N 05852W 9761 00295 0098 +224 +142 144039 041 036 002 00
173430 1447N 05851W 9760 00296 0099 +223 +147 143040 041 038 002 00
173500 1446N 05850W 9763 00293 0098 +226 +151 143042 043 037 001 00
173530 1445N 05850W 9758 00298 0098 +225 +155 144039 040 037 001 00
$$
;

[DonWrk]

From Jim Cantore an hour ago via Twitter.

At this point I wouldn't be surprised to see 91L make it through the islands as an unnamed entity.

well yeah its about to cross the islands in the next 4 to 5 hours..

Don't jump on me, jump on him. I'm just reporting lol

[Dave]

I can't stay but here's what you're looking at as of hdobs 08 on graphics...updated the satellite background a little..hope this helps.

[Cyclenall]

Ivan....when you see the CMC barking up the same tree on consecutive runs and if the EURO follows here in a few then it might not be a bad track......funny all the talk of recurve has left the building...

Oh it still might recurve....right into the Gulf

What do you think it would take for this to take Hurricane Dennis' track from 2005?

[Aric Dunn]

recon finding 40kts.. out of the S well west of the MLC... really and they are still going over to the MLC .. lol

really..

just turn around.. lol

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

 043 037

Is good data.43kts at flight level-37kts at SMFR.

[lebron23]

Daytona??
http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/hwrf ... 2_wind.png

[wxman57]

Best rotation is at 15.4N/60.3W. Could be forming an LLC there. The plane passed about 20-25 miles north of there on the way out.

[ROCK]

Code: Select all

 043 037

Is good data.43kts at flight level-37kts at SMFR.

yes it is.....not even close to being rain contaminated...

[RL3AO]

Best rotation is at 15.4N/60.3W. Could be forming an LLC there. The plane passed about 20-25 miles north of there on the way out.

I hope they go back to it.