ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Gustywind]

[Aric Dunn]

barbados..


Noon (16) Aug 01 84 (29) 78 (26) 29.83 (1010) S 7 showers in the vicinity

11 AM (15) Aug 01 82 (28) 78 (26) 29.83 (1010) E 10 light rain showers

[SouthDadeFish]

Once it cross Hispaniola is should have very favorable upper-level conditions. Could come back with a vengeance....

[RL3AO]

New flight on its way.

915
URNT15 KNHC 011616
AF305 04EEA INVEST HDOB 01 20110801
160600 1724N 06400W 5275 05463 0287 -030 -048 069015 015 /// /// 03
160630 1723N 06358W 5279 05455 0286 -030 -053 067014 015 /// /// 03
160700 1722N 06356W 5273 05469 0287 -030 -059 071013 013 /// /// 03
160730 1721N 06353W 5282 05457 0288 -029 -065 076013 013 /// /// 03
160800 1720N 06351W 5275 05454 0280 -028 -070 075013 013 /// /// 03
160830 1719N 06349W 5283 05438 0278 -027 -073 076014 015 /// /// 03
160900 1718N 06347W 5278 05447 0277 -027 -078 077015 016 /// /// 03
160930 1717N 06344W 5281 05441 0277 -025 -082 080016 017 /// /// 03
161000 1716N 06342W 5277 05461 0285 -029 -085 082017 017 /// /// 03
161030 1715N 06340W 5275 05463 0286 -030 -088 083017 017 /// /// 03
161100 1714N 06338W 5279 05453 0284 -027 -090 082017 018 /// /// 03
161130 1713N 06335W 5273 05467 0285 -032 -092 083015 016 /// /// 03
161200 1712N 06333W 5278 05453 0284 -030 -095 083016 017 /// /// 03
161230 1711N 06331W 5277 05459 0284 -030 -097 082017 018 /// /// 03
161300 1710N 06329W 5275 05460 0284 -030 -098 086017 018 /// /// 03
161330 1709N 06327W 5275 05459 0286 -030 -099 085018 018 /// /// 03
161400 1708N 06324W 5278 05458 0285 -030 -099 082017 018 /// /// 03
161430 1707N 06322W 5275 05464 0287 -030 -100 083017 017 /// /// 03
161500 1706N 06320W 5278 05457 0285 -030 -102 085018 018 /// /// 03
161530 1705N 06318W 5277 05455 0284 -027 -103 085018 018 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Ivanhater]

126 hours..almost to Miami



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[Aric Dunn]

radar.... last 5 to 10 frames you can see the vort come into view

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?108

[Ivanhater]

132...landfall Miami



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[Dean4Storms]

Miami.........

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal132.gif

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

looks like a little distance is developign between the two "blobs". maybe the model's idea a few days ago about splitting the energy was actually correct?

[SouthDadeFish]

Yeah Aric, surface obs are starting to trend towards a developing LLC.

[Blown Away]

@15.5N/59.5W, convection building on the E side. IMO this area will work down to the surface.

[Ivanhater]

139..over South Florida



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[Aric Dunn]

wow ridge really,..

132 hours.. sitting just off shore daytona..

gulf bound

[underthwx]

FOR THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ASSUMING THIS PANS OUT...THE TROUGH WILL SERVE
A TWOFOLD PURPOSE. ONE...IT WILL FORCE A POSSIBLE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...CURRENTLY INVEST AL91...TO RECURVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND
THEN NORTHEAST CARRYING IT AWAY FROM THE CONUS. TWO...IT WILL
FORCE THE UPPER RIDGE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD AGAIN...PLACING THE
LOCAL AREA ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE
MOVES WESTWARD...WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND A RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL DIURNALLY FORCED CONVECTIVE PATTERN.

NWS New Orleans Forecast Discussion.

[otowntiger]

Lookout South FL and Keys!

According to that model graphic it looks like S.FL and the Keys would only need to worry about a weak looking system.

[jhpigott]

Once it cross Hispaniola is should have very favorable upper-level conditions. Could come back with a vengeance....

GFS looks to strenghten future Emily right before crashing into SFL.

[Dean4Storms]

My guess is an emergence into the Gulf just south of Tampa. We'll see.

[SouthDadeFish]

To be honest I don't understand why the GFS doesn't strengthen it more before landfall in Florida. I guess the circulation really gets screwed up over Hispaniola.

[Dave]

The next mission departs at noon EDT.

Code: Select all

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
       A. 01/1800Z, 02/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 0405A CYCLONE
       C. 01/1600Z
       D. 14.7N 57.5W
       E. 01/1730Z TO 02/0000Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT



Cycloneye & Hurakan, I wont' be able to get off work today because it's the first of the month and we have tons of paperwork that has to go out today, so it'll be tonight or tomorrow before I can get back in to work a recon mission. Just a heads up, but seems EMA wants me around for at least a day...otherwise I'm on call but I can schedule time off when I want it...seniority has it's advantages. Be back as soon as I can.

[cycloneye]

Best rotation I'm seeing now is approaching 60W near 15N. Surface obs do NOT indicate an LLC there, though. Very weak low southwest of the convection appears to have dissipated. Conditions don't look good for any rapid development. Looking less like a hurricane threat in the Caribbean. It may not even develop an LLC.

This system has been for sure a very interesting one to study in many aspects especially,how slow things evolve in systems that are in the Tropical Atlantic. Will this be the pattern for the rest of the season? Ok that is for a topic at Talking Tropics. When it started as a invest,it looked omminous,how the models had the intensity as a cat 1 where it is now.But all is now good for the Lesser Antilles islands,only showers and some winds,but compared to what it was on the tables 3 days ago,is nothing.