WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Tropical Depression

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#361 Postby phwxenthusiast » Mon Aug 01, 2011 3:07 am

MI still showing the eye, although the outer wall seemed to have eroded..

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#362 Postby Chacor » Mon Aug 01, 2011 4:06 am

JTWC 06z is at 110 kt, but restrengthening to 125 kt is forecast. The new track forecast from JTWC actually takes Muifa north of Kadena (CPA 8 nautical miles at 05/03z).

JMA, which had been showing well south of Okinawa, now has a direct hit on the southern tip of the island.
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Re: WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Typhoon

#363 Postby Infdidoll » Mon Aug 01, 2011 4:27 am

Does it look like it's taking on dry air to anyone else? Wondering if what happened to Ma-On could end up happening here...
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#364 Postby hawaiigirl » Mon Aug 01, 2011 4:44 am

Hurricanes fascinate me. But I do hope this one spares lives. Is Okinawa prepared in your opinion?
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#365 Postby phwxenthusiast » Mon Aug 01, 2011 4:45 am

:uarrow: yes you're right, i'm seeing it too.. if you look at this TPW, you can see sort of dry air entrained into the system... typical but it does look like ma-on; wouldn't be amazing if the EWRC failed as well... :lol:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

anyway: latest MI, EWRC seems to be well underway now..

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Re: WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Typhoon

#366 Postby Infdidoll » Mon Aug 01, 2011 5:03 am

hawaiigirl wrote:Hurricanes fascinate me. But I do hope this one spares lives. Is Okinawa prepared in your opinion?


I think so. Songda, the typhoon that hit a few months ago, was a great wakeup for everyone about what happens when you take the "It's not going to hit us" mentality to the extreme and make NO preparations. Yesterday, you wouldn't have even known a typhoon was coming. Monday, the start of the work week and everyone going back to work, word spread fast. Now, EVERYONE is talking about this typhoon and preparing. Except for the locals, of course. I'd imagine I'll probably see them starting their clean-ups tomorrow if everything is still on track.

That said, I don't know if it's looking all that great, right now. Wonder if she's going to recover from that EWRC?
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#367 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 01, 2011 5:05 am

Looks like the inner core has been badly weakened by events of the last 36hrs. Its pretty interesting to see just how strong it was for a brief while b ut it went down as fast as it went up...classic reaction of a system with a tiny core.
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#368 Postby Chacor » Mon Aug 01, 2011 5:46 am

WTPQ21 RJTD 010900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1109 MUIFA (1109)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010900UTC 20.3N 134.1E GOOD
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 020900UTC 23.0N 132.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 030600UTC 24.2N 131.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 040600UTC 25.4N 128.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =
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Re: WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Typhoon

#369 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Mon Aug 01, 2011 6:41 am

Overall it seems the presentation is starting to look a little better near the centre on MTSAT IR imagery.

I see some of the models are doing silly things with Muifa:

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Last edited by Typhoon Hunter on Mon Aug 01, 2011 6:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#370 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 01, 2011 6:43 am

Wow...

I've never ever seenthe ECM go that strong for a system before, 899mbs for a global models is insane.

Pretty unlikely but that really would be shocking if it even came close.
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Re: WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Typhoon

#371 Postby Infdidoll » Mon Aug 01, 2011 6:52 am

Definitely looking better than it did an hour ago! Will have to see how it holds out overnight and if she bombs again.
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#372 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Mon Aug 01, 2011 6:59 am

KWT wrote:Wow...

I've never ever seenthe ECM go that strong for a system before, 899mbs for a global models is insane.

Pretty unlikely but that really would be shocking if it even came close.


I agree especially given the latitude and proximity to Chinese coast. It's still interesting to track and save those insane charts though but for the sake of Okinawa and Zhejiang Province I hope it doesn't verify!
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Re: WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Typhoon

#373 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Aug 01, 2011 7:09 am

I'm giving this system one more shot before it makes landfall to a large mass of land. It would still linger in the sea for some time and will be having time to finish the EWRC successfully. I'm thinking that this could bomb as it passes Okinawa...or maybe after it passes through the island. Presentation looks quite better than it was hours ago but it still needs to work on many things if it still wants to strengthen further.
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Re: WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Typhoon

#374 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Mon Aug 01, 2011 7:18 am

dexterlabio wrote:I'm giving this system one more shot before it makes landfall to a large mass of land. It would still linger in the sea for some time and will be having time to finish the EWRC successfully. I'm thinking that this could bomb as it passes Okinawa...or maybe after it passes through the island. Presentation looks quite better than it was hours ago but it still needs to work on many things if it still wants to strengthen further.


I agree Dexter - ECM certainly showing significant intensification near Okinawa over the last couple of runs so it's definitely worth paying real close attention to. Will be interesting to see what we all wake up to tomorrow morning!
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#375 Postby Chacor » Mon Aug 01, 2011 7:59 am

WTPQ21 RJTD 011200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1109 MUIFA (1109)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011200UTC 20.6N 134.2E GOOD
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 300NM EAST 200NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 021200UTC 23.0N 132.7E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 031200UTC 24.3N 130.2E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 041200UTC 25.5N 127.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =
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Re: WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Typhoon

#376 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 01, 2011 8:08 am

Typhoon Hunter wrote:Overall it seems the presentation is starting to look a little better near the centre on MTSAT IR imagery.

I see some of the models are doing silly things with Muifa:

Image

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if that were to come true, 899 mb off the chinese coast near shanghai is a nightmare! :eek:
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Re: WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Typhoon

#377 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Aug 01, 2011 9:00 am

It is now starting from scratch to rebuild a decent eye...and I'm expecting a wider and more intense one... :eek: If it verifies, it would be fascinating for the observers like us but nasty for those along its path.
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Re: WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Typhoon

#378 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Mon Aug 01, 2011 9:47 am

I noticed this earlier today and held my tongue on it as I was not 100% sure, but I think the ridge over china is holding on and will keep Okinawa in a better position compared to the storm. noting the most recent model runs below. and also the stream line analysis with a anticyclone over the East China Sea.

Image

Image


Anyone else notice this?
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Re: WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Typhoon

#379 Postby WALL-E » Mon Aug 01, 2011 11:34 am

RobWESTPACWX wrote:I noticed this earlier today and held my tongue on it as I was not 100% sure, but I think the ridge over china is holding on and will keep Okinawa in a better position compared to the storm. noting the most recent model runs below. and also the stream line analysis with a anticyclone over the East China Sea.

Image

Image


Anyone else notice this?


You used the wrong level.
Now, it should use this one.
Image
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#380 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:25 pm

Something of a spread there on the models, some heading NW, some others go to the North/NNE...

Wonder if the ECM will go as agressive as it did on its 00z run.
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