#5 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Jul 31, 2011 1:15 am
Excerpt from the 06Z JTWC outlook - MEDIUM
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.0N 117.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 195 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AND
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARING TO THE WEST DUE TO THE STRONG OUTFLOW OF STY 11W. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LLCC. A 310129Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH CENTRAL
10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS AND STRONG WESTERLIES (15 TO 25 KNOTS)
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING
PRESSURES OF 1004 TO 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO MEDIUM.
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
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