Convection has increased near low center at CV wave

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cycloneye
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Convection has increased near low center at CV wave

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 26, 2003 5:47 am

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... YLE=tables

Yesterday what you saw was a big squall line of convection that moved well ahead of the well defined low center but this morning new convection has developed near the low at 12n.Let's see if that persist today and if so we can see development from that system in comming days.

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/03082606

The tropical models are again ploting the system and this is the 6:00 UTC run.
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#2 Postby wx247 » Tue Aug 26, 2003 6:15 am

Good early morning Luis! :D

Convection has increased some, but I really note as being organized is what appears to be outflow, especially on the northern side of the low.
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#3 Postby JCT777 » Tue Aug 26, 2003 6:16 am

It is starting to look more promising. Maybe we will see a TD or TS from this system in the next couple of days.
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#4 Postby Colin » Tue Aug 26, 2003 9:50 am

I agree...it's sure looking nice! ;)
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#5 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 26, 2003 12:19 pm

It's looking better and better as time goes by because of the convection building over the well defined low.
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#6 Postby Tip » Tue Aug 26, 2003 12:46 pm

If it becomes a hurricane before 50W as progged by SHIP and DSHP as someone posted on the other board, there is only a 1 in 10 chance of it hitting CONUS based on climatology.
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#7 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 26, 2003 12:52 pm

Yes I saw it too about the chances of a hurricane forming before 40w hitting the US.Those are 1-10 chance that it will so they are slim but if a hurricane forms from 40w to 49w the % increases big time but first we have to see if this system will be a hurricane first and in what longitud forms.
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#8 Postby Tip » Tue Aug 26, 2003 1:05 pm

Sorry I got those lats wrong. It was 40W and less than 20N for the one in ten chance. Actually the SHIP and DSHP forecast put 92L in the 1 in 3 category to hit CONUS.
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#9 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 26, 2003 1:08 pm

I didn't remember the lat 20n too.But yes 1-3 the US may get hit if this system develops into a hurricane from 40-40w and 20n or less.
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