ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[ozonepete]

two areas are nearly on top of each other..

Yeah, they are coalescing as you forecast, Aric. Looks like this could be the start of the ramp up.

[Ivanhater]

Weakness closing

[ROCK]

high sliding east...window is being shut....

[Aric Dunn]

78 hours .. very little weakness left..

[Ivanhater]

84 hours...window shut

[Aric Dunn]

84 hours.. what weakness..
lol

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[South Texas Storms]

Is it starting to look more likely that this will enter the GOM?

[cheezyWXguy]

84 hours...window shut

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084m.gif

Seems like a pattern like that would suggest a ride up the spine of cuba or perhaps slightly north through the florida straights...





*edited by sg to remove IMG tags

[ROCK]

High was over NTX....then OK then slides over into Ark...also is retreating in the GOM

[TwisterFanatic]

0z




18z

[Ivanhater]

Is it starting to look more likely that this will enter the GOM?

STS...you have been around long enough to know it is way to early to answer that. Entering the GOM is the least likely scenario, but the trend is west for now.

[HurricaneWarning92]

two areas are nearly on top of each other..

Yeah, they are coalescing as you forecast, Aric. Looks like this could be the start of the ramp up.

But then again everyone thought it was gonna ramp up today... never did. so who knows.

[bella_may]

84 hours...window shut

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084m.gif

what exactly does that mean?




*edited by sg to remove IMG tags

[painkillerr]

As much as I feel bad for the people of Hispaniola...If future Emily is bound for South Florida it would be best to pass over the big island and the mountains before coming here. At least the circulation would hopefully be disrupted and we wouldn't be looking at a major storm (hopefully). With the models continuing to trend further west it is my fear that this thing will turn to the north and begin the long, sweeping recurve somewhere around Jamaica and come across Central Cuba. I don't believe Central Cuba will do as much to disrupt this as Hispaniola would and we could be looking at a major storm rolling up the spine of the state.

I'm not saying this will happen, nor am I wishing this on the people of Haiti or the DR. They certainly don't even need a rain event from this, but unfortunately for them it looks like they will get some sort of impact.

SFT

What about Puerto Rico?

[SouthFLTropics]

A trip between Cuba and Haiti with a verrrrrrry slow approach to the SE Florida coast is my thinking of what the NAM is hinting at. Steering may collapse.

SFT

[Ivanhater]

Guys, please remove the IMG tags when quoting someone.

[SouthFLTropics]

As much as I feel bad for the people of Hispaniola...If future Emily is bound for South Florida it would be best to pass over the big island and the mountains before coming here. At least the circulation would hopefully be disrupted and we wouldn't be looking at a major storm (hopefully). With the models continuing to trend further west it is my fear that this thing will turn to the north and begin the long, sweeping recurve somewhere around Jamaica and come across Central Cuba. I don't believe Central Cuba will do as much to disrupt this as Hispaniola would and we could be looking at a major storm rolling up the spine of the state.

I'm not saying this will happen, nor am I wishing this on the people of Haiti or the DR. They certainly don't even need a rain event from this, but unfortunately for them it looks like they will get some sort of impact.

SFT

What about Puerto Rico?

At this point in time I'm personally thinking that this may slide under PR...just my personal opinion based on current observations and trends.

SFT

[Bocadude85]

A trip between Cuba and Haiti with a verrrrrrry slow approach to the SE Florida coast is my thinking of what the NAM is hinting at. Steering may collapse.

SFT

On that run I am not sure they system would even make it to Florida.. could slide through the straits.

[painkillerr]

As much as I feel bad for the people of Hispaniola...If future Emily is bound for South Florida it would be best to pass over the big island and the mountains before coming here. At least the circulation would hopefully be disrupted and we wouldn't be looking at a major storm (hopefully). With the models continuing to trend further west it is my fear that this thing will turn to the north and begin the long, sweeping recurve somewhere around Jamaica and come across Central Cuba. I don't believe Central Cuba will do as much to disrupt this as Hispaniola would and we could be looking at a major storm rolling up the spine of the state.

I'm not saying this will happen, nor am I wishing this on the people of Haiti or the DR. They certainly don't even need a rain event from this, but unfortunately for them it looks like they will get some sort of impact.

SFT

What about Puerto Rico?

At this point in time I'm personally thinking that this may slide under PR...just my personal opinion based on current observations and trends.

SFT

I agree....I don"t see much of a threat at this particular time. Tks!

[bella_may]

Is it starting to look more likely that this will enter the GOM?

it is IMO. still early though,will just have to wait and see!