ATL: EMILY - Remnants

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lebron23
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2061 Postby lebron23 » Sun Jul 31, 2011 7:52 pm

The west shift continues. Early 00z

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_91.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2062 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jul 31, 2011 7:53 pm

00z Models

208

WHXX01 KWBC 010038

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0038 UTC MON AUG 1 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912011) 20110801 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110801 0000 110801 1200 110802 0000 110802 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 13.3N 56.5W 13.7N 58.7W 14.2N 60.8W 14.7N 62.9W

BAMD 13.3N 56.5W 13.7N 59.3W 13.8N 61.7W 13.8N 64.0W

BAMM 13.3N 56.5W 13.6N 58.7W 13.8N 60.9W 14.1N 62.9W

LBAR 13.3N 56.5W 13.8N 59.5W 14.5N 62.5W 15.2N 65.2W

SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 45KTS

DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 45KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110803 0000 110804 0000 110805 0000 110806 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 15.4N 64.7W 17.1N 68.5W 19.6N 72.0W 22.3N 73.8W

BAMD 14.0N 65.8W 15.2N 68.3W 18.4N 70.3W 20.8N 71.9W

BAMM 14.8N 64.5W 16.8N 67.3W 20.2N 69.7W 23.5N 71.1W

LBAR 16.1N 67.5W 18.7N 71.5W 22.7N 74.5W 26.6N 76.5W

SHIP 57KTS 72KTS 76KTS 83KTS

DSHP 57KTS 72KTS 48KTS 54KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 13.3N LONCUR = 56.5W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 16KT

LATM12 = 13.0N LONM12 = 53.1W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 16KT

LATM24 = 12.7N LONM24 = 50.0W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 30KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2063 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jul 31, 2011 7:55 pm

A bit concerning I would say

Image
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#2064 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Jul 31, 2011 7:55 pm

For what they are worth, the BAMs generally shifted NE.
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#2065 Postby HurricaneBrain » Sun Jul 31, 2011 7:56 pm

Graphic not showing 91L? TD?
*Thanks Swimdude*
Last edited by HurricaneBrain on Sun Jul 31, 2011 8:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#2066 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 31, 2011 7:57 pm

31/2345 UTC 14.3N 53.8W T1.5/1.5 91L -- Atlantic
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2067 Postby SeminoleWind » Sun Jul 31, 2011 7:58 pm

lebron23 wrote:The west shift continues. Early 00z

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_91.gif


Image

Canadian scooted a little more west, not liking the trends today
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Re:

#2068 Postby Swimdude » Sun Jul 31, 2011 7:58 pm

HurricaneBrain wrote:Graphic not showing 90L? TD?


That would be because 90L doesn't exist... It's 91L. :)

And no, I don't think we have an upgrade. This place would be the first to know!
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#2069 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jul 31, 2011 7:58 pm

look where the bam models initilized.. with the western area.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2070 Postby bella_may » Sun Jul 31, 2011 7:59 pm

Ivanhater wrote:A bit concerning I would say

Image

very. wouldnt be surprised if the models tommorow showed it heading into florida or maybe even into the gulf
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#2071 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jul 31, 2011 7:59 pm

we are about to see a huge shift...
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#2072 Postby KWT » Sun Jul 31, 2011 7:59 pm

Remember the BAM suite aren't going to be handling this type of pattern all that well, esp in relation to the weakness and its fluxing of strength.

Most of the main models now heading furtjher west, but note the extrap is for now going south of all the models, may not mean much but until it develops extrap may not be a bad thing to use as a guide.
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Re:

#2073 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 31, 2011 8:00 pm

HurricaneBrain wrote:Graphic not showing 90L? TD?


No renumber yet.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#2074 Postby KWT » Sun Jul 31, 2011 8:01 pm

cycloneye wrote:31/2345 UTC 14.3N 53.8W T1.5/1.5 91L -- Atlantic


Now back to the eastern area, not really sure anyone has a clue what is going on inside this system!

Makes for an interesting thread though!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#2075 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jul 31, 2011 8:01 pm

cycloneye wrote:31/2345 UTC 14.3N 53.8W T1.5/1.5 91L -- Atlantic


bam models initialized at the other location..

Image
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Sun Jul 31, 2011 8:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#2076 Postby HurricaneBrain » Sun Jul 31, 2011 8:02 pm

Swimdude wrote:
HurricaneBrain wrote:Graphic not showing 90L? TD?


That would be because 90L doesn't exist... It's 91L. :)

And no, I don't think we have an upgrade. This place would be the first to know!

Thanks for correcting me, this tropical weather has been getting to my head!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#2077 Postby wzrgirl1 » Sun Jul 31, 2011 8:03 pm

Regardless, nothing is on the map now. Wonder why?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#2078 Postby KWT » Sun Jul 31, 2011 8:04 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
cycloneye wrote:31/2345 UTC 14.3N 53.8W T1.5/1.5 91L -- Atlantic


bam models initialized at the other location..


Ha so they are all just all over the place at the moment from the looks of things!

Don't see why they would upgrade it now, unless there is a ship report or something thats pretty conclusive on the issue...
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Re:

#2079 Postby marciacubed » Sun Jul 31, 2011 8:05 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:we are about to see a huge shift...

Which direction do you think Aric????
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#2080 Postby gatorcane » Sun Jul 31, 2011 8:05 pm

Surprised nobody noticed the CMC shifted left and close to the Latest GFS.
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