ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[ROCK]

And if you look at the 72 hour nam the ridge starts building back west and the gap is closing as the trough lifts out

agree....we are in a zonal flow, progressive pattern...everyone says this is the death ridge from the last 2 months coming back to add to the southern states drought. I see as more progressive than last and will slide east faster than progged.....just my 2 cents.

[Evil Jeremy]

Interesting to note that the Graphical TWO circle has greatly expanded to include both blobs, before it only was on the eastern blob.

[northtxboy]

For reference, this was the track of David - this is not a forecast for 91L....just a reference to what one possible scenario could be as of this time....by tomorrow, this could be a different story. But it does help to put a visual to all of the dialogue, no?

Again, not a forecast. A possible scenario - in terms of motion, not exact track. Such a track for 91L 200 miles east or west of David's track would be quite a different event.

more david for sure !

yep but I feel that florida will get the main impact. Just a thought!!!

[Aric Dunn]

Interesting to note that the Graphical TWO circle has greatly expanded to include both blobs, before it only was on the eastern blob.

not surprised. I know they see the dynamics going on with the system ...

[HurricaneWarning92]

there were a couple of people that were so stubborn on taking this one out to see, which is fine to have your own opinion but they were mentioning it as if it was guaranteed the U.S was safe. That made it irritating for the rest of us that arguments were all over the thread. This is what we were talking about. Anything can happen.

[gatorcane]

The weakness that gets it is actually the weakness at 138 hours as shown by 12Z GFS 700MB flow posted below. That is caused by a second trough/front swinging through the NE United States. The GFS also builds in ridging between 66-120 hours to the north...just like the NAM, that causes a slow WNW movement for a couple of days.

[HurricaneBrain]

FORECASTER BRENNAN/FRANKLIN

I find it amusing it took two forecasters to write this special TWO. It's like the NHC assigned one to each blob.

LOL

[SouthDadeFish]

Someone on another board said 11 dropsondes and 14 RECCO made it onto the 18Z GFS. So apparently the 18Z GFS is definitely worth watching. I do not have a link to this information so it's not confirmed, just wanted to pass this along.

[Aric Dunn]

The weakness that gets it is actually the weakness at 138 hours as shown by 12Z GFS 700MB flow posted below. That is caused by a second trough/front swinging through the NE United States:

The GFS also builds in ridging between 66-120 hours to the north...just like the NAM:

yes but its the first one that gets it far enough north.. if the first one hold longer than the second wont have as much of a chance.

[Aric Dunn]

Someone on another board said 11 dropsondes and 14 RECCO made it onto the 18Z GFS. So apparently the 18Z GFS is definitely worth watching. I do not have a link to this information so it's not confirmed, just wanted to pass this along.

well thats good.. some structure data will be good to have imputed.. because right now they all think its basically symmetrical..

[KWT]

I see some in the model thread are comparing the track of David to this systems track. it may not be a bad comparision actually given David was in a very broad and long winded recurve pattern which obviously brought it through the Bahamas and into Florida.

Pretty sure it won't be as strong...well hope not anyway!

[Bluefrog]

uggggg its weeble wobbles and wont wont fall down ....... funny about the budget cuts and 2 forecasters writing that simple discussion .... as long as its not a gommer storm .... cant handle another one

[Evil Jeremy]

I'm going to remember this as the "Civil War Invest" lol.

[hurricanefloyd5]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
238 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011


WED-NEXT WEEKEND...(PREVIOUS FORECAST)...LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW
LITTLE CHANGE IN SOUTHERN PLAINS ANTICYCLONE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS SHOWN LIFTING/FILLING THROUGH
LATE WEEK WITH RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
HOWEVER...WEAKNESS IN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS DEPICTED OFF TO OUR EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH WOULD BE SIGNIFICANT AS IT BECOMES A
PLAYER IN STEERING POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTH BETWEEN
70-75W...BUT MUCH CAN CHANGE SO FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST.

[KWT]

Very true Aric with regards to the first trough. I also think the 2nd one will probably get weakened as well a little, and so the combo of maybe a slightly weaker system in the short term, a quicker rebuild of any ridge, and a slightly weaker upper trough could well make a difference.

[gatorcane]

Not sure if this has been posted, but a discussion on the models from HPC (not specifically pertaining to 91L)...looks like they are favoring the ECMWF ensembles...and the UKMET is having continuity errors.

Gridscale feeback? Is that why it was making the trough too deep I wonder?

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
307 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

VALID 12Z WED AUG 03 2011 - 12Z SUN AUG 07 2011

HPC PROGS REMAIN PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A 40%-40% BLEND OF THE 00Z
ECMWF AND THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR OUR MEDIUM RANGE SURFACE
FRONTS/PRESSURE AND 500 MB PROGS THROUGH DAY 5...ALBEIT WITH 20%
06Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MIXED IN. PREFER A TRANSITION TO A 70%-30%
BLEND OF SIMILAR SOLUTIONS FROM THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 06Z
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN THEREAFTER TO ADDRESS THE UNCERTAINTIES IN
SYNOPTIC DETAILS INHERENT TO THAT TIME RANGE. THIS BLEND FAVORING
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN MAINTAINS BETTER HPC
CONTINUITY.

THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE SETTLED DOWN FROM ITS DISCONTINUITY
OVER THE EASTERN STATES YESTERDAY...AND IS WELL SUPPORTED FOR THE
MOST PART NOW BY THE 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEANS INTO LATE WEEK. THE 00Z GFS SHOWS GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES DAY 3...WHICH PROPAGATES EASTWARD OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY DAY 4. THE 06/12Z GFS RUNS HAVE ALSO
CONVERGED MORE UPON A SOLUTION IN COMMON WITH THE ECMWF FOR THE
COMING WEEK OVERALL. THE UKMET HAS SOME CONTINUITY ISSUES AT
SMALLER SCALES OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS AND THE GEM GLOBAL IS ALSO
NOISY WITH SHORTWAVES. OTHERWISE...THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN
REMAINS FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED IN MOST OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK OVER THE LOWER 48.

CISCO/SCHICHTEL

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussion ... isc=pmdepd

[HurricaneBrain]

Can you imagine seeing two tropical storms right by each other on the NHC graphic? Haha.

[KWT]

I've seen twin invests before, I've also seen some tropical storms with alot of extra baggae (I remember Charley was one such strom) but 91L seems to be one of the worst I've seen with both areas having quite a few positives that normally would be enough for a TC to form.

[ROCK]

they need to move the floater at the NHC or maybe get the western blob its own floater....

[ozonepete]

I've seen twin invests before, I've also seen some tropical storms with alot of extra baggae (I remember Charley was one such strom) but 91L seems to be one of the worst I've seen with both areas having quite a few positives that normally would be enough for a TC to form.

Yeah. I have never seen two systems so close together that both look so good for strengthening. I've been watching this all day and have gone back and forth from thinking they'll never merge to being sure that they will.