ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[SFLcane]

18z bams did shift a bit futher westward.

[gatorcane]

Hi all, checking in. So far still looks like a recurve scenario as far as the U.S. mainland is concerned and finally getting confirmation of that from the ECMWF 12Z, which deflects it comfortably away from the US SE Coast. That has been my forecast for the past day or so on this system as we are getting more certainty.

Lastest 18Z guidance still not showing a U.S. threat here. Yes, I know it is still out there 7+ days here but I will stick to my forecast.

To be fair though the models have shifted WELL west compared to 48hrs ago, most back then had a system in the NE Caribbean and recurving by 65W...most now get close to/into the Bahamas...

I know. I have been watching the trend. I am picking a forecast at this point. But I do know that models will likely continue to shift...maybe more west or more east, but things can change in the tropics, we know that

[KWT]

Convection starting to connect between the two blobs:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

Yeah just the first hints of interaction between the most likely location of a LLC and the MLC that is racing westwards.

Gatorcane, interestingly recon and other obs both indicate there is nothing of note at the surface and the winds we got before we lost connection to recon suggests as circulation on the SE side of the western convective area.

In truth we can't say without recon, I'd suspect there maybe a weak surface feature with the eastern one, but at the moment I think the western feature is more defined...for now!

[HUC]

Well, well, well;we have an area of disturb weather in its developping stage, with mid or sometimes low level vortex that are trying to developed.
Seems to me that at the present time neither of the potential circulations are really organising.
A mess of a clouds with certainly a lot of rain for the islands between Barbados and St Martin sunday night At the present time, even the western blog not give us a lot of rain( over Guadeloupe at least).The wind is calm...

[Macrocane]

The right one looks better IMO the rotation is more evident and has more banding although the left one has more intense convection. I guess that RECON is going to analyze both "systems" to see wich one is the depression or maybe none is a depression.

[Aric Dunn]

Convection starting to connect between the two blobs:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

was just going to mention that.. if you notice it actually arc sw then s all the way to the southern portion of the western area where the convection is then building very strong right now an its almost stationary. this is because of angular momentum and rotational dynamics. the present weak LLC to the SW will likely migrate north slightly within that arc ( band ) where everything should finally begin to consolidate. think if the motion as a what happens when you wind up a length of rope into a tight spiral first it starts as a big arc then eventually it gets pulled together.. clearly the area to the east is too small to do much of anything. and will likely be absorbed or just squashed.

[hurricaneCW]

Until everything manages to come together and we figure out exactly where the main circulation is then we could discuss what it's going to do. Once again, the longer things take to get going, the further west this thing's going to go.

[Steve H.]

System seems to looked fairly disorganized at the moment. IMO it looked better yesterday. Perhaps its forward speed coupled with shear continue to disrupt development. That said I believe it will pull itself together. Where & when is the big question since it will influence track.

[vbhoutex]

All I know is this system is making my head spin! Each time I look at a loop I see something different. I've already posted a couple of different thoughts on it and not one has come to fruition at this point. I will go out on a limb here and say that if I had to choose between the two right now, I think I would go with the West one since it has the stronger convection and appears to have a LLC forming on its' SE side. Putting it mildly this is one of the strangest Invests I have ever dealt with. As others have said, if the West entity becomes the dominant one we have a whole new ball game. However, I still would not rule out a recurve even if the West one is the "chosen one". It always comes down to two things, timing and strength and with this Invest doing the weird dance it is we still don't have anything definite to work with. Meanwhile the islands are already being impacted by the Western portion of the system.

[HURAKAN]

41040: 14.5ºN . 53.0ºW



Wind direction has changed from east to south

[gatorcane]

Convection starting to connect between the two blobs:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

Yeah just the first hints of interaction between the most likely location of a LLC and the MLC that is racing westwards.

Gatorcane, interestingly recon and other obs both indicate there is nothing of note at the surface and the winds we got before we lost connection to recon suggests as circulation on the SE side of the western convective area.

In truth we can't say without recon, I'd suspect there maybe a weak surface feature with the eastern one, but at the moment I think the western feature is more defined...for now!

I still say eastern blob. The western blob should gradually fade. The circulation is very pronounced there.

But as others said, the more time it takes to get organized, the more west it goes.....

[KWT]

vbhoutex, I think if anything its probably not one or the other...

The western area has got the LLC IMO, or at least a more dominant LLC feature. The convection will likely decay on the western side whilst the east sustains itself and keeps a mid level circulation going. Eventually the circulation merges into one in say 12-18hrs time...

As Aric said, process is probably just starting and thats what mosxt models are doing with this system, one way or the other.

[KWT]

I still say eastern blob. The western blob should gradually fade. The circulation is very pronounced there.

Certainly the MLC is more pronounced...but as I said recon showed totally the wrong direction of winds for a surface circulation if there is a well defined circulation. Not to say there isn't maybe a weak circulation in there

I think its going to behave like a sheared storm does when it becomes stacked.

[vbhoutex]

Convection starting to connect between the two blobs:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

was just going to mention that.. if you notice it actually arc sw then s all the way to the southern portion of the western area where the convection is then build very strong right now an its almost stationary. this is because of angular momentum and rotational dynamics. the present weak LLC to the SW will likely migrate north slightly within that arc ( band ) where everything should finally begin to consolidate. think if the motion as a what happens when you wind up a length of rope into a tight spiral first it starts as a big are then eventually it gets pulled together.. clearly the area to the east is too small to do much of anything. and will likely be absorbed or just squashed.

This brings to mind a question. Is this system going to consolidate and explode right over the islands? If the process I think I am seeing in that loop continues I feel like this will become a real possibility.

[Aric Dunn]

Convection starting to connect between the two blobs:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

was just going to mention that.. if you notice it actually arc sw then s all the way to the southern portion of the western area where the convection is then build very strong right now an its almost stationary. this is because of angular momentum and rotational dynamics. the present weak LLC to the SW will likely migrate north slightly within that arc ( band ) where everything should finally begin to consolidate. think if the motion as a what happens when you wind up a length of rope into a tight spiral first it starts as a big are then eventually it gets pulled together.. clearly the area to the east is too small to do much of anything. and will likely be absorbed or just squashed.

This brings to mind a question. Is this system going to consolidate and explode right over the islands? If the process I think I am seeing in that loop continues I feel like this will become a real possibility.

quite possible. once we get a single well defined center.. there is nothing holding it back..

[HURAKAN]

000
URNT10 KNHC 311935
97779 19344 10191 67500 82300 15010 75791 /8051
RMK AF309 WXWXA 110731145126309 OB 10
last report

That's not what we're following

[wxman57]

I can see a very weak low-level swirl near 12N/58W to the SE of the western blob. A couple of surface obs in the eastern blob indicate an LLC near 14N/53W-ish. Low-level winds across the disturbance are now about 30 kts from the east, thus the disruption today. However low level winds from the Antilles westward across the eastern Caribbean are only 10 to 15 kts. This would indicate significant convergence as the disturbance reaches the islands tomorrow. That's when consolidation and development should occur. What's with these recon planes going "dark" as soon as they're about to reach disturbances? Seems to happen all the time.

[Sanibel]

It's the east one no doubt. It's deep into cyclogenesis.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[vbhoutex]

It's the east one no doubt. It's deep into cyclogenesis.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Please enlighten us further. Bold statements mean nothing without back up.

[KatDaddy]

I am taking the wait and see approach until more organization occurs before jumping into the model runs.