ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Aric Dunn]

I'm not so sure Aric, because its quite close to where I think any circulation probably is on the western side given what recon had and I think looking at the loops it sure does look like the rotation is in that sort of area, maybe a hair west.

Recon certainly doesn't back up the idea that the eastern one is stronger.

Yellow circle is the MLC..... the RED is the more defined seen on satellite and at least backed up with a few surface obs.. the blue is the best track position... clearly there is only east winds through the blue circle.. pretty sure they just picked the mean center between the two until something is verified.

http://img820.imageshack.us/img820/2194 ... utyhnj.jpg

I hate to disagree with you, man, because I usually dont. But in this loop it doesnt look like there's any discernible center in the red circle you've drawn.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

use a good floater..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

[ozonepete]

If the split becomes complete and there are two disturbances, it sure looks like the western one has a better shot. The eastern one is clearly ingesting a lot of dry air: look at all of the arc clouds blowing out on the northern side. It's taking the hit for the other one now.

[x-y-no]

They're way too close to both develop. Either one takes over or they both die.

[Aric Dunn]

actually the blue circle might not be bad either.. after looking the loop the circ is still moving around,... and would migrate anywhere decent convection built up.. so just make the red circle bigger to cover the blue .. lol

[SunnyThoughts]

What an interesting, complicated, spread out mess. And I agree with those speaking about the models. How can you put any stock on what any given model is saying...when there are competing areas..fairly far apart, competing for the dominant low pressure area where the models would initiate from?

[KWT]

18z Best Track

They have the east low.

AL, 91, 2011073118, , BEST, 0, 135N, 528W, 30, 1007, LO

Its such a shame recon is having troubles, becasue the reports could probably either prove or disprove it...

At least upto the last set, there was even a hint of a circulation there...however they can be quite hard to tell...

My bet is they merge, the LLC on the western one eventually gets caught up by the eastern MLC and development occurs some point around 12hrs time.

[Aric Dunn]

18z Best Track

They have the east low.

AL, 91, 2011073118, , BEST, 0, 135N, 528W, 30, 1007, LO

yeah. probably just for continuity.. probably not going to change it till recon finds something..

[Dave]

I'm going to need someone to take over around 3:45 pm edt because I have a committment at 4 pm edt today.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

What a mess. At least it never really got cranked up like earlier thinking before reaching the islands. Maybe sometime tomorrow something will finally decide to form from this? But then again they might just both die off? At this point don't think anybody or thing can give a correct answer.

[Ivanhater]

What an interesting, complicated, spread out mess. And I agree with those speaking about the models. How can you put any stock on what any given model is saying...when there are competing areas..fairly far apart, competing for the dominant low pressure area where the models would initiate from?

There seems to be some trolling going on today. Some people are trying to get a reaction out of others. Everyone needs to stay cool.

Speaking of the models..what a major shift west today. It is interesting that is the western blob takes over, the models have been initialized too far North and east

BTW...hot day in P'cola today!

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Hi all, checking in. So far still looks like a recurve scenario as far as the U.S. mainland is concerned and finally getting confirmation of that from the ECMWF 12Z, which deflects it comfortably away from the US SE Coast. That has been my forecast for the past day or so on this system as we are getting more certainty.

Lastest 18Z guidance still not showing a U.S. threat here. Yes, I know it is still out there 7+ days here but I will stick to my forecast.

BTW, a weaker system would get farther west but would stay in the Caribbean heading for the Western Caribbean. I do not prefer that solution at this time out of respect for the GFDL and ECMWF which both agree on this system deepening in the Northern Caribbean and not impacting the U.S.

[HURRICANELONNY]

For those that are thinking a track without a center or name needs to read more about storms. Models are a guidance not a track. Here's a tidbit from Miami NWS.
Should it remain disorganized and develop slowly...then a more
westward track would occur. Despite the model consensus the past
few days of taking the system northward to the east of the
Bahamas...many scenarios are possible. The latest GFS trended
further west with the system tracking along the eastern bahamian
chain...and the 31.00z GFDL run even took the system over
Hispaniola to off of the NE coast of Cuba...even further west than
the latest GFS run. A case of non- development would be a broad
low tracking westward across the Caribbean. So the point is there
remains a high degree of uncertainty...as is the case with
developing systems. Will continue to monitor this closely into the
upcoming work week. A climatology forecast will be maintained in the
meantime with daily thunderstorm chances and a continuation of hot
and humid conditions.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Hot as you know what here to Mike. Now under heat advisory, sitting in the mid to upper 90's depending where in south LA you are with heat index at 110* Gulf temps should be boiling come mid august.

[KWT]

What a mess. At least it never really got cranked up like earlier thinking before reaching the islands. Maybe sometime tomorrow something will finally decide to form from this? But then again they might just both die off? At this point don't think anybody or thing can give a correct answer.

Isn't that the truth, i'm not sure anyone really has a solid hold on whats going on!

Unless the western area has a good circulation its probably going to remain 91L for a little while yet...

Another Dolly system that always looks close but never quite makes it, then finally develops , then bang!

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Hi folks. Looking at a system today, it is slowly organizing as expected, however, I would not have given it 100% chance last night as the NHC did. I had it more at 60 to 70% since both GFDL and ECMWF did not develop it so quickly.

Dry air is also getting in the way as well. That said, I will up my chance to 90% for the eastern BLOB which looks like it is on its way....but not today. I would say tomorrow possibly though, we could have Emily.

[Aric Dunn]

great analysis..

[KWT]

Hi all, checking in. So far still looks like a recurve scenario as far as the U.S. mainland is concerned and finally getting confirmation of that from the ECMWF 12Z, which deflects it comfortably away from the US SE Coast. That has been my forecast for the past day or so on this system as we are getting more certainty.

Lastest 18Z guidance still not showing a U.S. threat here. Yes, I know it is still out there 7+ days here but I will stick to my forecast.

To be fair though the models have shifted WELL west compared to 48hrs ago, most back then had a system in the NE Caribbean and recurving by 65W...most now get close to/into the Bahamas...

[Evil Jeremy]

Convection starting to connect between the two blobs:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

[CYCLONE MIKE]

What a mess. At least it never really got cranked up like earlier thinking before reaching the islands. Maybe sometime tomorrow something will finally decide to form from this? But then again they might just both die off? At this point don't think anybody or thing can give a correct answer.

Isn't that the truth, i'm not sure anyone really has a solid hold on whats going on!

Unless the western area has a good circulation its probably going to remain 91L for a little while yet...

Another Dolly system that always looks close but never quite makes it, then finally develops , then bang!

Agreed KWT. Think that is what some are worried about. It tracks through the caribbean then BOOM. But of course we have nothing to worry about here along the gulf coast as our mighty protector "THE DEATH RIDGE" keeps us cozy warm and secure.

[Countrygirl911]

Somewhat of a double-buzzsaw goin'...

wow that looks like 2