ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Aric Dunn]

The western area should fade away as the the low near 14N 52W continues to organize and deepen. That is where Recon. will be investigating and likely to find our TC!

hard to say at this point.. there very well could be a small circ in the east part..

[cycloneye]

Plane is decending. The moment of truth is comming in minutes.

[Bobo2000]

Man still 100%

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AND ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 575
MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
LATER TODAY OR ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO DETERMINE IF THIS BROAD
DISTURBANCE HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION
CENTER. IF THE LOW BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY...
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Aric Dunn]

Latest CMC proves the point. NOTHING HAS CHANGED. No matter how this plays out the models see a substantial weakness, substantial enough to force 91L to the north regardless of whether the west area wins, or whether it travels thru the Caribbean. It really doesn't matter, the only other solution is a slam into Central America.

no matter how close 91L gets to SFL, close just doesn't cut it. The models are still in remarkable agreement this thing is destined to go swimming. I am still concerned for the poor islands....all this bickering over the "so called trend change" neglects the thought the islands are about to get slammed.

Wake me up when the models DON'T show that huge weakness, then we can discuss a "trend change".

ok well then quit reading the post.. and go to sleep if its boring you.. and also the models are not in good agreement at all.

[KWT]

Interesting Nogaps run, it shows the western one eventually absorbing the eastern area, not an unreasable solution if the western one does develop a decent LLC.

Weatherfreak000, the weakness only extends to about 77W...so if its still south of 25N...that will put Florida/East coast at very big risk. Those are my key points that I'm watching...

[HURAKAN]

Need to add the floater for a clearer picture

[Aric Dunn]

12z NOGAPS - develops the western blob.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?area=ngp_troplant&dtg=2011073112&prod=z85&tau=000&set=Tropical

can you post some images... for some reason its not loading for me..

[Dave]

755
URNT15 KNHC 311739
AF304 01EEA INVEST HDOB 15 20110731
172730 1424N 05536W 8905 01124 0135 +177 +049 089013 015 /// /// 03
172800 1424N 05534W 9135 00893 0125 +195 +060 095015 016 /// /// 03
172830 1423N 05533W 9361 00677 0118 +207 +070 089017 018 /// /// 03
172900 1421N 05532W 9596 00448 0111 +224 +080 093018 019 /// /// 03
172930 1420N 05531W 9741 00327 0117 +231 +090 100019 020 /// /// 03
173000 1419N 05530W 9766 00308 0118 +228 +099 102019 020 /// /// 03
173030 1418N 05529W 9774 00302 0118 +227 +108 103015 016 /// /// 03
173100 1416N 05528W 9768 00306 0117 +230 +115 108017 017 /// /// 03
173130 1415N 05527W 9772 00302 0117 +230 +121 107017 017 /// /// 03
173200 1413N 05527W 9769 00305 0116 +232 +126 108017 017 /// /// 03
173230 1413N 05525W 9771 00304 0117 +230 +131 109018 018 /// /// 03
173300 1412N 05524W 9770 00303 0117 +230 +136 109018 018 /// /// 03
173330 1411N 05522W 9772 00303 0117 +229 +139 110016 017 /// /// 03
173400 1411N 05521W 9770 00305 0117 +229 +142 115015 016 /// /// 03
173430 1410N 05519W 9768 00306 0117 +227 +144 123015 015 /// /// 03
173500 1409N 05518W 9772 00302 0117 +226 +146 129014 015 /// /// 03
173530 1409N 05516W 9770 00304 0117 +229 +147 125014 014 /// /// 03
173600 1408N 05514W 9770 00304 0117 +230 +149 125013 013 /// /// 03
173630 1407N 05513W 9774 00302 0118 +230 +150 129014 014 /// /// 03
173700 1407N 05511W 9771 00305 0119 +229 +152 133014 014 /// /// 03
$$
;

[cheezyWXguy]

12z NOGAPS - develops the western blob.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?area=ngp_troplant&dtg=2011073112&prod=z85&tau=000&set=Tropical

No it merges them, the western one is the dominant one though, while the eastern one wraps into the circulation. These models are starting to make me think this system is going to take a very similar track to 90L/Don...
EDIT: I should probably elaborate since no model shows that solution yet. With the models trending west, and the western circulation taking control it appears the models will continue to shift west, and if this thing ultimately becomes a caribbean runner, the high to the north may be strong enough to prevent recurve at all, forcing it into mexico, or even deep south texas just like Don

[Aric Dunn]

Interesting Nogaps run, it shows the western one eventually absorbing the eastern area, not an unreasable solution if the western one does develop a decent LLC.

Weatherfreak000, the weakness only extends to about 77W...so if its still south of 25N...that will put Florida/East coast at very big risk. Those are my key points that I'm watching...

yeah thats what I starting to think will happen..

[KWT]

Plane is decending. The moment of truth is comming in minutes.

Going to be interesting, I take it the NHC still think the western are is just an eddy...

I think it will have a circulation, but well defined...thats a bit more tough to say...my guess is it may not be well enough defined on the eastern side.

[ronjon]

Latest CMC proves the point. NOTHING HAS CHANGED. No matter how this plays out the models see a substantial weakness, substantial enough to force 91L to the north regardless of whether the west area wins, or whether it travels thru the Caribbean. It really doesn't matter, the only other solution is a slam into Central America.

no matter how close 91L gets to SFL, close just doesn't cut it. The models are still in remarkable agreement this thing is destined to go swimming. I am still concerned for the poor islands....all this bickering over the "so called trend change" neglects the thought the islands are about to get slammed.

I disagree - a whole has changed and may continue to change. The FL peninsula may now be in play. Stop thinking of these upper air predictions 5-7 days out as set in stone. This storm could move just east of FL, up the spine of FL, or in the eastern GOM. Lots of things in play depending on the orientation of ridging, trough lifting out, and speed of the system. Yes our focus should be on the islands first.

[vbhoutex]

Latest CMC proves the point. NOTHING HAS CHANGED. No matter how this plays out the models see a substantial weakness, substantial enough to force 91L to the north regardless of whether the west area wins, or whether it travels thru the Caribbean. It really doesn't matter, the only other solution is a slam into Central America.

no matter how close 91L gets to SFL, close just doesn't cut it. The models are still in remarkable agreement this thing is destined to go swimming. I am still concerned for the poor islands....all this bickering over the "so called trend change" neglects the thought the islands are about to get slammed.

Wake me up when the models DON'T show that huge weakness, then we can discuss a "trend change".

ok well then quit reading the post.. and go to sleep if its boring you.. and also the models are not in good agreement at all.

This is directed at everyone on this site, not just the two above. this is just an example. STOP THE BICKERING AND DISCUSS WITH RESPECT!! If it doesn't stop immediately SUSPENSIONS WILL BE HANDED OUT!!! THERE WILL BE NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS. It fine and good to disagree with each other and to state why, but the collateral comments need to stop and need to stop now!!

[Dean4Storms]

The western area should fade away as the the low near 14N 52W continues to organize and deepen. That is where Recon. will be investigating and likely to find our TC!

hard to say at this point.. there very well could be a small circ in the east part..

It would have to be pretty small. All I'm seeing from Weather Obs from Barbados is generally NE winds being reported.

[Aric Dunn]

Plane is decending. The moment of truth is comming in minutes.

Going to be interesting, I take it the NHC still think the western are is just an eddy...

I think it will have a circulation, but well defined...thats a bit more tough to say...my guess is it may not be well enough defined on the eastern side.

hehe.. thats a really large eddy..

[Zampanò]

Not knocking the NHC, but I would be interested to know what doubts they still have as to it being a cyclone already. Normally I agree with their conservative, wait-and-see approach, but given the level of organization and the immediate threat to land I never imagined they would wait all the way until recon to classify it.

[HURAKAN]

floater added

[Dave]

335
URNT15 KNHC 311748
AF304 01EEA INVEST HDOB 16 20110731
173730 1406N 05510W 9770 00306 0119 +227 +153 129013 013 /// /// 03
173800 1405N 05509W 9772 00304 0118 +230 +153 126013 014 /// /// 03
173830 1404N 05507W 9774 00302 0118 +229 +154 121014 014 /// /// 03
173900 1403N 05506W 9769 00303 0117 +223 +154 116012 012 /// /// 03
173930 1402N 05504W 9769 00305 0117 +227 +154 110013 014 /// /// 03
174000 1401N 05503W 9768 00307 0117 +224 +152 124017 017 /// /// 03
174030 1401N 05501W 9772 00302 0116 +229 +152 124017 017 /// /// 03
174100 1401N 05500W 9772 00302 0116 +230 +151 127016 017 /// /// 03
174130 1400N 05458W 9770 00303 0115 +229 +152 120015 015 /// /// 03
174200 1400N 05457W 9771 00302 0115 +228 +154 119013 013 /// /// 03
174230 1400N 05455W 9768 00305 0116 +227 +155 119013 014 /// /// 03
174300 1400N 05453W 9770 00305 0117 +225 +156 113013 014 /// /// 03
174330 1400N 05452W 9768 00306 0118 +225 +157 113015 017 /// /// 03
174400 1359N 05450W 9773 00301 0117 +226 +158 120017 017 /// /// 03
174430 1359N 05448W 9773 00301 0116 +225 +159 121017 018 /// /// 03
174500 1359N 05447W 9772 00301 0116 +227 +160 121016 017 /// /// 03
174530 1359N 05445W 9769 00304 0116 +226 +160 123016 017 /// /// 03
174600 1358N 05444W 9770 00302 0115 +225 +160 128017 018 /// /// 03
174630 1357N 05442W 9771 00301 0115 +225 +161 138017 017 /// /// 03
174700 1356N 05441W 9771 00302 0115 +223 +161 137017 017 /// /// 03
$$
;

[SFLcane]

12z GFDL goes way north...