ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Aric Dunn]

you all notice the medium and deep layer bams west turn at the end of the run

[Dean4Storms]

I have a question that will surely show my lack of knowledge in this area. When should we know fairly accurately if this future storm is going to threaten the US? I know the Mariner's Rule of 100, 200, and 300 mile errors one, two, and three days out. What I'm not getting today is the almost certainty coming from some about what the storm is going to do when it isn't a storm at all yet. Is everything that obvious already?
Thank you for your help.

My rule of thumb as to what to believe and where a system "might be heading" when reading this board is to go with these things in this order:
- NHC
- Pro Mets
- Climatology
- Experienced Amateurs
Throw out the "noise" of those who always predict that the storm will come to where they live.

GREAT post. Very informative. The point being any amateurs to this forum need to AVOID THESE POSTS like the plague. These posters will come across very convincing and they are saying what you wanna hear, but if the pro mets don't agree then it's typically best to be skeptical.

The amount of certainly that some are making with their posts for something 7 to 10 days out is absurd in my opinion.[/Quote]

So....are the pro mets being absurd as well? I'm just curious...because the pro mets are pretty set on recurve as well....

Pro Mets are often wrong that many days out as much as the NHC. They may be thinking of a recurve (not necessarily missing a CONUS landfall) due to the forecasting tools and what they are showing today, but that could easily change tomorrow.

[EyELeSs1]

Recon windfield data will be very interesting.

100% agree

[capepoint]

I know that they would never get too cranked-up being that close together, but they would make one heck of a double-whammy. hours to a day or so apart instead of the usual weeks to a month apart.

[WxEnthus]

Recon windfield data will be very interesting.

Agreed. But how great would it be to have full ASCAT passes over both of the areas??

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian right on S.Florida's doorstep!

[KWT]

I suspect the western one has a weak nearly closed circulation, the eastern one has a strong MLC and has really curved the convection around itself, but is it struggling to close off the low...probably.

Recon datas is indeed going to be so interesting, just too elongated right now to upgrade I think.

[ConvergenceZone]

Can someone tell me how often the model data for the tropical distrurbances is released? Is it every 6 hours? 12 hours?
Thanks!

[Aric Dunn]

I suspect the western one has a weak nearly closed circulation, the eastern one has a strong MLC and has really curved the convection around itself, but is it struggling to close off the low...probably.

Recon datas is indeed going to be so interesting, just too elongated right now to upgrade I think.

yeah, but pretty sure the western one is closed.. the cloud are moving due east..

[Aric Dunn]

Its clearly visible now..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

[KWT]

Even if she misses the trough there still would be quite a lot of shear in the currently projected upper air environment over the Bahamas. Not to mention that the 2680 meter mountains of Hispaniola will break up the circulation.

So unless there is a major change in the synoptic reasoning we need to stay focused on the islands.

Land will be a big issue, but its not the total deal killer given the amount of time its going to have over water afterwards.

As for shear, I NEVER trust the models more then 72hrs out unless there is a clear jet streak present on the models, because those things can change a surprising amount in that timeframe.

12z CMC is very close to landfall on Florida, just about to recurve at that point...

Trend is west folks!!

['CaneFreak]

All I can say is WOW...looks like things are getting more and more interesting...

12z Canadian right on S.Florida's doorstep!

[Rgv20]

I actually think the threat is now real...the pattern may yet still recurve but the system is struggling to get going and concentrate into one system, plus the fact that the models are slowly reducing the strength of the trough...

IMO the models may well shift through to a FL landfall and maybe even further west then that yet...

Yep, big change in my thinking today peeps...combined risk due to Hispaniola/E.Cuba landfall threat and slower development.

That is my current thinking too we shall see what happens in the coming days. The longer it takes to consolidate the more west it should go according to the steering charts and should keep a fairly brisk pace.

[KWT]

yeah, but pretty sure the western one is closed.. the cloud are moving due east..

Yep sure looks that way doesn't it, but I think the eastern ALSO has a weak closed circulation, underneath the convection would be likely place and probably quite small...

I can't really recall a situation like this, fair play to the ECM, it was raising the double vort as a possible hinderence for development.

MLC strong on the eastern area as well, so hard to call, conditions better for the eastern one, hence the better looking system despite the lower level flow probably being quicker.

I suspect thats why the western one is developing a LLC whilst the eastern one is still struggling, speed...

[Aric Dunn]

yeah, but pretty sure the western one is closed.. the cloud are moving due east..

Yep sure looks that way doesn't it, but I think the eastern ALSO has a weak closed circulation, underneath the convection would be likely place and probably quite small...

I can't really recall a situation like this, fair play to the ECM, it was raising the double vort as a possible hinderence for development.

it might. but its too small to over take the overall larger circ. if you look at that loop I posted. the southern one is stationary. that means the all of the angular energy is around that one and the eastern one will be thrown westward around it and likely get squashed as the pressure falls.

[Weatherfreak000]

Its clearly visible now..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

Might wanna go ahead and upgrade it. Looks like it has a developing LLC need Recon to confirm.

[BobHarlem]

What's going on with the airplane? There hasn't been a peep of anything for a bit.

[cycloneye]

Nothing yet?

[KWT]

it might. but its too small to over take the overall larger circ. if you look at that loop I posted. the southern one is stationary. that means the all of the angular energy is around that one and the eastern one will be thrown eastward around it and likely get squashed as the pressure falls.

Its interesting either way, if the western one is the one to focus on, then thats going to mess up every single model output because they all develop the eastern area...

The interaction of two lows is pretty call, its very rare for it to become quite this obvious outside of the Caribbean...

[Dean4Storms]

Trend definitely west and any further west and even though a recurve looks likely it may take place too far to the west to miss FL. Even HWRF went well westward at the 06z run now taking Emily by that time over the western edge of PR.

Needless to say if the trend to turn NW occurs further west causing this storm to traverse Hispaniola the disorganization and rise of pressure could cause it to lose its poleward climb toward the weakness/trough allowing the slightest ridging to turn it back more westward.