ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Ivanhater]

Not ready to take off yet....850mb vorticity still very much elongated

[SouthFloridawx]

And back to the discussion... ; )

[Evil Jeremy]

SO what i'm going to do, and plan on doing, is constantly harping on the recurve solution as I see fit.

1: That can become annoying.
2: That can become misleading, especially if you make more blanket statements such as "Recurve is the favored solution by far".
3: Personal issues are no reason to promote a meteorological possibility.

[cycloneye]

Public statement by the San Juan NWS:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... &version=0

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1044 AM AST SUN JUL 31 2011

...PERSONS IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...BASED ON
LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI...A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH AND HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MOST MODELS SUGGEST A FORECAST TRACK NEAR OR
OVER OUR LOCAL REGION.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ARE ENCOURAGED TO GO OVER THEIR
HURRICANE PLANS AND CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

SOME IMPORTANT FACTS THAT YOU SHOULD KNOW ABOUT TROPICAL CYCLONES...

TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE WATCH...TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE GENERALLY BETWEEN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE WARNING...TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

DO NOT FOCUS ON THE LOCATION OF THE FINE FORECAST LINE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS OR ANY OTHER SYSTEM.

A HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT ON A MAP. THE DANGEROUS EFFECTS OF A
HURRICANE CAN EXTEND SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES AWAY FROM THE CENTER.
IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY...IT IS WISE TO ASSUME
THAT YOU COULD EASILY BE ADVERSELY AFFECTED BY THE STORM.

NOW IS THE TIME TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS AND SECURE YOUR PROPERTY. THE
FOLLOWING ARE SOME SUGGESTIONS FOR PREPARING FOR THE STORM...

GROCERY STORES MAY SELL OUT OF ITEMS QUICKLY. STOCK UP ON
BATTERIES FOR RADIOS AND FLASHLIGHTS...CANNED OR DRIED FOOD...
DRINKING WATER FOR AT LEAST 5 TO 7 DAYS...FIRST AID SUPPLIES...
AND PRESCRIPTION MEDICINE.

GET CASH...AS CREDIT CARDS AND ATM MACHINES WILL NOT WORK WITHOUT
ELECTRICITY. ALSO...GET FUEL FOR AUTOMOBILES...GENERATORS AND
CHAIN SAWS.

AROUND THE HOUSE...STORE LOOSE ITEMS SUCH AS TRASH CANS OR YARD
FURNITURE. SECURE WINDOWS WITH SHUTTERS OR PLYWOOD. ENSURE
BATTERY OPERATED RADIOS ARE WORKING. MOVE BOATS TO A SAFE
LOCATION. TRIM LARGE TREES THAT COULD FALL ON YOUR HOME. MAKE
SURE VALUABLE PAPERS ARE SECURE.

KNOW WHICH LOCAL SHELTER WOULD BE AVAILABLE TO YOU SHOULD YOU
DECIDE YOU ARE NO LONGER SAFE FROM HIGH WINDS AND/OR FLOODING.

IF YOU MUST EVACUATE TO A PUBLIC SHELTER...REMEMBER TO BRING A
FIRST AID KIT...MEDICINE...BABY FOOD...DIAPERS...TOILETRIES...
CHANGE OF CLOTHES...BATTERY POWERED RADIO AND EXTRA BATTERIES...
FLASHLIGHT...SLEEPING BAGS OR BLANKETS...IDENTIFICATION...
VALUABLE PAPERS...CASH...GAMES.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS TIPS...AND
HURRICANES IN GENERAL...IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET FROM SEVERAL
SOURCES...

PUERTO RICO EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY SPANISH WEB PAGE...

HTTP://WWW.GOBIERNO.PR/AEMEAD/INICIO

FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY...

HTTP://FEMA.GOV

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS HOME PAGE...

HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/HAW2/ENGLISH/INTRO.SHTML

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...

HTTP://HURRICANES.GOV

AMERICAN RED CROSS HOME PAGE...

HTTP://REDCROSS.ORG

/ALL WEB PAGES SHOULD BE TYPED IN LOWER CASE/


$$

EM/KN

[HurricaneWarning92]

I believe hes just making an opinion to why he doesnt feel confident. Besides, if its for sure going to recurve then that must mean it gets stronger sooner than expected. or else it just goes towards the yucatan as a weak system, so at the end it didnt recurve either.

There are always more than two options. It's never "this or that". These are the tropics. Anything can happen.

You are kidding right? thats what im saying as well, its just they say it either recurves or go to Yucatan. i know anything can happen.

[rog]

what is the likelihood of recon finding 2 weak td's. Both areas of convection look to be seperating themselves from each other and want to develop a circulation. If we do have 2 seperate sysyems in such close proximity to each other that would prevent either one from getting to strong and allow them to continue on a more westerly track.

[ROCK]

I am not ready to jump on the recurve wagon yet.....and I also dont see this death ridge coming back as strong and as bad as it has been for about the last 2 months.....after all it is the GFS forecasting this ridge.. I wish the NAM went out long range.......just my 2 cents....

[Ivanhater]

This thread better get back on topic, otherwise vacations will be coming soon. First and only warning.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I don't care how UNFAVORED of a track it is...the possibility is still very real that this gets trapped and heads back west...just sit back, relax, and watch it unfold...

^^^
Guys please be careful discussing this solution. You don't want to mislead people when this solution is clearly not favored. Recurve is the favored solution by far.

Edit: CaneFreak have you BEEN here for the past few years??


Storms come and go that challenge what "Should" happen at any point in a season. Ike being a strong example but inverse. Remember, Climatology is NOT a forecast.

That's FINE bro don't forget this whole thing got started cuz you CHALLENGE people, you insulted Gatorcane flat out, then you challenged me. It's like bro....your going to SERIOUSLY challenge people cuz u have a hunch? That's flat out unbecoming.

SO what i'm going to do, and plan on doing, is constantly harping on the recurve solution as I see fit.

I have been a member here a lot longer than what it says. Had to change my log in name. That said the reason I like this site is there was a time when everyone respected each others opinion. Eveyone could agree to disagree. I have seen a big change here in the last few years and not for the best, if people want to argue do it some where else. By the way this is not directed at anyone one person just my opinon, now back to tracking storms.

[Evil Jeremy]

I believe hes just making an opinion to why he doesnt feel confident. Besides, if its for sure going to recurve then that must mean it gets stronger sooner than expected. or else it just goes towards the yucatan as a weak system, so at the end it didnt recurve either.

There are always more than two options. It's never "this or that". These are the tropics. Anything can happen.

You are kidding right? thats what im saying as well, its just they say it either recurves or go to Yucatan. i know anything can happen.

The way you phrased it made it seem like a personal prediction. Using the word "Besides" separated your comment on his opinion from the rest of your post, making the recurve/yucatan statement appear to stand on it's own.

[Recurve]

Anybody else think the eastern blob is where it's going to happen, with the proto-LLC at the western edge of the convection? That's what I'm sensing now. The big NRL sat images are suggesting more convergence and development there.

Man it's a shame the sat winds pass missed it.

We should have reports from the islands on the weather going wet soon.

['CaneFreak]

Agreed...I think maybe I spoke too soon last night when I saw the MLC heading towards the location of the LLC...this thing still has a ways to go in my humble opinion.

Edit: This further supports my theory that this thing is not going to recurve and rather head further west.

Not ready to take off yet....850mb vorticity still very much elongated

[cycloneye]

Who wants to make a recon discussion thread?

[Dave]

Go ahead and take off RL3AO...AF304 enroute to invest 91L

715
URNT15 KNHC 311531
AF304 01EEA INVEST HDOB 02 20110731
152000 1742N 06449W 0131 ///// 0126 +317 +236 360000 000 /// /// 23
152030 1742N 06449W 0127 ///// 0125 +289 +237 120007 013 /// /// 23
152100 1742N 06448W 0057 00053 0131 +274 +237 113015 018 /// /// 03
152130 1742N 06446W 9879 00237 0151 +254 +234 097014 015 /// /// 03
152200 1742N 06445W 9579 00500 0142 +229 //// 089014 014 /// /// 05
152230 1742N 06443W 9270 00811 0157 +210 //// 097013 013 /// /// 05
152300 1742N 06441W 8961 01108 0162 +189 //// 101013 013 /// /// 05
152330 1742N 06440W 8608 01439 //// +168 //// 104013 013 /// /// 05
152400 1742N 06438W 8310 01741 //// +151 //// 108012 013 /// /// 05
152430 1742N 06436W 8037 02025 //// +137 //// 108012 013 /// /// 05
152500 1742N 06434W 7772 02315 //// +128 //// 121013 014 /// /// 05
152530 1741N 06432W 7546 02562 0147 +120 //// 118014 014 /// /// 05
152600 1741N 06430W 7318 02822 0142 +114 //// 126014 015 /// /// 05
152630 1740N 06429W 7111 03063 0128 +109 //// 138014 015 /// /// 05
152700 1739N 06427W 6994 03198 0129 +101 //// 140012 013 /// /// 05
152730 1738N 06426W 6980 03216 0128 +100 +096 136013 014 /// /// 03
152800 1737N 06424W 6972 03220 0134 +094 +088 139014 014 /// /// 03
152830 1735N 06422W 6980 03215 0137 +095 +080 139015 015 /// /// 03
152900 1734N 06420W 6988 03204 0138 +095 +074 136015 015 /// /// 03
152930 1733N 06418W 6988 03204 0139 +093 +070 135015 016 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Javlin]

Still looks to be a circulation below 15'N.The wave looks Yuc/Strait bound ATM.

7/22/11 pg 1 viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111230&start=0

I think I see another Don path here
1) still not quite there as far as delvelopment goes
2)it's one week later the pattern is much the same aka steering but 80W25N-80W20N seems reasonable

[Portastorm]

Everyone -- keep the personal insults off the forum. If you feel the need to challenge someone's opinion, do it via PM, or provide evidence and share it with all of us.

Good grief ... it's Sunday morning, we don't even have a center of circulaton clearly defined let alone a named system, and everyone seems to want to play "whack-a-mole" with fellow Storm 2Kers! Cool it.

Personal warnings/suspensions will follow if this doesn't stop.

[EyELeSs1]

seems fairly clear that we have a TC on our hands now with a center around 13.5N 52W
(from 3hrs ago)


Anticyclone is back over head and looks like the system is going to start intensifying today. I will go out on a limb and say recon will find Emily once it gets out later this aft

[lester]

Can't we all just get along and watch recon do its thing? Models are worthless without a confirmed llc.

- לסטר

[cycloneye]

The plane has departed,so we need someone who may want to make a recon discussion thread to liberate the main recon thread to only the data.

[HurricaneWarning92]

Evil Jeremy, i see what you mean, but i put the "if" as if saying "if this were to happen, then... ". In other words, pretend i didnt put besides. but now, i do agree we should get back in topic. lets all relax, and happy storm tracking