ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Aric Dunn]

I might have to put my money on the leading area... the more east area seem to be getting squashed..

[Evil Jeremy]

I might have to put my money on the leading area... the more east area seem to be getting squashed..

If the front area develops, all bets are off in terms of track and strength.

[BobHarlem]

Right now, the left system has the better convection but the right system has the better circulation. I think the TW outlooks percentages the NHC gave got them in a box. They will probably make the east system a TD and just carry it that way for awhile. I still think Jamaica has a better shot than the rest.

[Aric Dunn]

I might have to put my money on the leading area... the more east area seem to be getting squashed..

If the front area develops, all bets are off in terms of track and strength.

yep.. just have to shift everything westward .... environment is still very conducive except for the little bit of dry air atm but that should be gone soon.

[ROCK]

I think they will find a TD when they get in there.....convection on the eastern blob starting to consolidate once again....maybe it sticks this time around.

[Aric Dunn]

I really wish they would shift the SSD floater west...

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

if the TD ends up being the eastern system, increased chance of more westward tracks I would think.

[HURAKAN]

I really wish they would shift the SSD floater west...

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnhe.html

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

[Aric Dunn]

I really wish they would shift the SSD floater west...

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnhe.html

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

not the same... lol

[HURAKAN]

I really wish they would shift the SSD floater west...

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnhe.html

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

not the same... lol

I think they're better! Specially the 1st link

[Aric Dunn]

nothing beats the SSD RGB.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

my biggest concern at this stage is that the models continue to shift west, and that it actually goes to the west of Hispanola. If it shoots through that smaller path through Hispanola and Cuba, that wouldn't be good.
This early, we often see the models calling for recurve, only to end up shifting west, even with a developed system. This isn't even a TD yet, and because of competing possible TD's, will remain weak until ti consolidates. The longer it takes to get its act together, the further west it will go before heading NW. Then with the ridge building in, that could change the end game anyway. This could even end up in LA/TX if the ridge buids in quickly and prevents the recurve altogether.
-not syaing that will happen, just thinking of some possibilities. Until about Wed, we won't know where this is going. By then, the synoptics will be more obvious. Too many factors still being determined at this point in the game.
-but great for us to contemplate and discuss here.

[SFLcane]

Dont see any circulation in the eastern most blob.. Nice large floater from penn state. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/rtwx/ewall/SATATL_FLOAT2/anim8vis.html

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATA ... m8vis.html

[dwsqos2]

Yeah, there really isn't a well-defined circulation no shock given the low-level flow. Good low-level convergence isn't possible. I see SW low-level winds to the south of the disturbance, but that really isn't enough. It honestly looks rather messy.

[scottw]

Deleted... too much coffee this morning

[RL3AO]

NHC has it as TD5 now
[url]http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#FIVE-E
[/url]

TD5-E is in the Eastern Pacific, hence the "E" at the end.

[scottw]

NHC has it as TD5 now
[url]http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#FIVE-E
[/url]

TD5-E is in the Eastern Pacific, hence the "E" at the end.

well thats embarrasing

[cycloneye]

ASCAT just missed it.

[canes04]

low near 13.5n and 53.5w. This looks like a TS to me.