ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[wzrgirl1]

The models look a little surreal to me at the moment. Of course this is Emily we are talking about and women aren't necessarily logical. If nothing else its nice they are giving the people living along the southeast coast some peace of mind for now. August should be a busy month what with Emily and now Friedrich.

Really???

[northjaxpro]

I don't think it is a sure thing that this will miss the mainland US. We have seen ridges build back in more quickly than though and push storms back West. Andrew did something similar although I am not sure if he was always seen as a recurve. It is dangerous to assume anything when it comes to tropical weather, especially days out.

The best example of what you referenced above is Jeanne in 2004. The main point is that while models are hinting at a likely curving out to sea down the road, that is not 100% certain of course. Jeanne in 2004 best illustrates this for sure.

[AtlanticWind]

I agree with Gatorcane. The models actually were furthest west around this time on yesterday. Since then we have learned two things:


1. A track out to sea is inevitable (Even if this track goes through the Caribbean it will still feel the weakness. Unfortunately that means the islands in that region are the target this time around.

2. This is not a U.S. threat. It is an Island threat.


For anyone in that area I would be deeply concerned. Future Emily has for real potential, IMHO.

Way way too early for blanket statements , we are not sure when this is going to form yet . It could get much further west as a weak system

[underthwx]

I feel there may be a shift towards the west with the models after some recon flights thru the system........

[TheDreamTraveler]

I agree with Gatorcane. The models actually were furthest west around this time on yesterday. Since then we have learned two things:


1. A track out to sea is inevitable (Even if this track goes through the Caribbean it will still feel the weakness. Unfortunately that means the islands in that region are the target this time around.

2. This is not a U.S. threat. It is an Island threat.


For anyone in that area I would be deeply concerned. Future Emily has for real potential, IMHO.

You're basically saying you're 100% sure this is not a threat to the east coast. So that means even if the storms track changes and was heading towards the east coast and was going to hit, you'd still say it wasn't going to hit. You do know that creates a false perception of security for people on the coast, right?

We're still days out and the computer models are not 100% right all of the time. Things always change. Not to mention the storm hasn't fully developed yet.

[CourierPR]

You folks who issue your opinions as if they were handed down from Mount Sinai really should consider the very real possibility that you could be wrong.

[ROCK]

what convection? looks a little on the weak side attm....D-min and dry air to the North eating at it probably...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html

[amawea]

Updated my Blog again with some initial thoughts on what could become of future Emily's Future track based on a new concept I have been introduced to called TeleConnections. You can read the blog here - http://theweatherlookout.blogspot.com/

The teleconnection idea has been used by Joe Bastardi for several years. He has quoted the inventor of that idea but I can't remember who it was. I know when I subscribed to his Accuweather pro site a few years ago he used that method for some of his long range forecast.

[ozonepete]

Large systems often take longer to consolidate. But once they do they can ramp up very quickly. The problem here is its proximity to the islands.

[Nimbus]

Weaknesses often dig and persist when well developed storms are north of the islands so the synoptic reasoning is sound. Problem is weird things can happen to the steering environment if a storms outflow modifies the ridging, or a system loses its convection to shear and races past the trough.

Wish we had a true percentage of confidence in the forecast. Is the early recurve like an 80% probability?

[gatorcane]

Cyclogenesis, such a tricky critter. We see a huge mass of clouds and get convinced it's going to spin up into a 60knot TS in 24 hours. Not so sure now. This thing was moving fast. It could well pass through the islands as a wave, although I wouldn't go against the near-certain call of at least a depression from the NHC. Without any obs or recon, I'm not sure if we're watching a nearly focused depression, a wave ingesting a dry slot from the south, just regular dmin, or what. The southern 'arm' looks to have a definite inflow towards a center, but I don't see anything definite, just hints given by some twist in the northern and southern cloudbands, which are far apart.

See, you start calling her Emily and she clears out. Hope the diffuse character continues for the islands' sake.

Where does the low center if there's a hint of one look to form now? 14 47? or 12 46?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

My forecast from the beginning has been for development to be slow and gradual.

I think the NHC is too high and I would still say 60% to 70% only because there is a swath of sinking, dry air between it and the Leewards. That has been there for days now.

The GFDL and ECMWF have not been very bullish either, though the last run of the GFDL is more bullish.

I put weight into those models.

[EyELeSs1]

Where does the low center if there's a hint of one look to form now? 14 47? or 12 46?

I would put the center near 12.9N 50W

[StormClouds63]

Structure is there, but convection lacking this evening.

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't think it is a sure thing that this will miss the mainland US. We have seen ridges build back in more quickly than though and push storms back West. Andrew did something similar although I am not sure if he was always seen as a recurve. It is dangerous to assume anything when it comes to tropical weather, especially days out.

Yes, sure there's always a slim outside possibility, but we've got to go with the general model consensus at thsi point, especially since they are becoming much tightly clustered together. The more tightly clustered together, the more likely that it's heading in that direction. When you have models splitting all over the place (like I thought they were doing this morning), then the chance of recurving diminishes.

We should just say our prayers for those on the islands though, because this doesn't look like a "fish" that's for sure.

[wzrgirl1]

If the NHC says 90 percent then they see something that some of you do not. It is almost a guarantee that it will become our next system within the next 48 hours.

[Recurve]

Where does the low center if there's a hint of one look to form now? 14 47? or 12 46?

I would put the center near 12.9N 50W

I suppose that's reasonable. Farther west than I would have thought, but maybe that is where there's a west component.

[Florida1118]

Structure is there, but convection lacking this evening.

Its D-Min, the convection loss is normal

[ozonepete]

Updated my Blog again with some initial thoughts on what could become of future Emily's Future track based on a new concept I have been introduced to called TeleConnections. You can read the blog here - http://theweatherlookout.blogspot.com/

The teleconnection idea has been used by Joe Bastardi for several years. He has quoted the inventor of that idea but I can't remember who it was. I know when I subscribed to his Accuweather pro site a few years ago he used that method for some of his long range forecast.

Teleconnections is a concept developed in the meteorological commnity back in the eighties. There have been a lot of papers written on it and two well known reserachers are Mo and Livezey 1986, and Barnston and Livezey 1991. It focuses on the interactions between global weather patterns such as ENSO, the NAO, etc.

Some intro on it from NOAA: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/teleintro.shtml

[wzrgirl1]

http://www.stormpulse.com/hurricane-david-1979

Hmmmm.....

[Dean4Storms]

There is no sure thing that the trough digs far enough or that this system is developed enough for anyone to say that this by no means affects the USA mainland unless you are very inexperienced dealing with models and tropical weather. Someone could prolly look it up to be exactly accurate but the average error in even the NHC's 5th day position is usually around 300 miles.