ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[SouthDadeFish]

Interesting that the NHC said a tropical depression could even form tonight. I think all they are waiting for is more convection.

[Florida1118]

Well it appear Emily is soon to be.

[Evil Jeremy]

Maybe we will get advisories at 11pm after all.

[ronjon]

HPC's take on the upper air pattern - they consider the operational runs of ECM as a major break from continuity.

HPC SURFACE/FRONTS AND 500 MB MEDIUM RANGE PROGS FOR DAYS 3-7
REMAIN PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEANS. AFTER REMARKABLY CLOSE AGREEMENT INTO DAY
3/TUE...GUIDANCE DOES DIVERGE FOR A PORTION OF THE NATION BY DAY
4/WED WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SUPPRESSING THE MAIN SYSTEM TRACK MORE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL US COMPARED TO MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
THAT KEEP IT CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS 00Z ECMWF
SOLUTION WAS A BREAK FROM CONTINUITY AND SEEMS CONTRARY TO
CLIMATOLOGY AND PERSISTENCE. THE NEWER 12Z ECMWF HAS ONLY TRENDED
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH. MEANWHILE...THE 00/06/12Z GFS RUNS REMAIN
SOMEWHAT NOISY AT SMALLER SCALES AND THE 00Z GEM GLOBAL REMAINS
IMPROBABLY COMPLEX. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS IN CLOSE
SYNC WITH THE GEFS MEAN.

[Gustywind]

90%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH AND HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
DISTURBANCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN

[ROCK]

have they ever gone 100% chance before classifying a system...I dont recall...

[northjaxpro]

Interesting that the NHC said a tropical depression could even form tonight. I think all they are waiting for is more convection.

Yes, that is likely the case. If convection really gets cranking later tonight near the circulation center like I suspect it will, they will label it a TD later this evening or early Sunday morning.

[Gustywind]

[cheezyWXguy]

have they ever gone 100% chance before classifying a system...I dont recall...

Yeah, in fact they actually did it for Don a few days ago.

[SouthDadeFish]

have they ever gone 100% chance before classifying a system...I dont recall...

Every time I've seen it they issue advisories 3 hours later. It has been done a couple of times, I can't recall which storms though.

[ROCK]

15-20mph is fast and obviously entrenched in the low level steering flow.....eerily similar to Emily in 05...she kept going westward and the models shifted and shifted. Cant wait for tonights EURO run!!

[Gustywind]

[underthwx]

Hi-im new here.. id like to see what a recon flight will come up with-give the models a shot of info...right now they are seeing

[ROCK]

have they ever gone 100% chance before classifying a system...I dont recall...

Yeah, in fact they actually did it for Don a few days ago.

Don? ok yeah thats why I forgot.....

[ronjon]

Interesting that the NHC said a tropical depression could even form tonight. I think all they are waiting for is more convection.

Yes, that is likely the case. If convection really gets cranking later tonight near the circulation center like I suspect it will, they will label it a TD later this evening or early Sunday morning.

I think they'll wait till recon on sunday afternoon unless SAT appearance improves dramatically.

[Vortex]

15-20mph is fast and obviously entrenched in the low level steering flow.....eerily similar to Emily in 05...she kept going westward and the models shifted and shifted. Cant wait for tonights EURO run!!

Ill be there

[KWT]

Interesting they upped it to 90% despite convection waning, I was sorta excpecting them to hold at 80% but to be fair the broader circulation looks like a TC at the moment.

I think the 90% is pretty much an admission that they think Recon will find at least a TD tomorrow even if they don't upgrade till then...I suspect they'll upgrade tomorrow morning with the next convective burst.

[SouthDadeFish]

To be honest, with such a complex pattern being forecast in five days, I think the Gulfstream flight tomorrow should help clear things up and get the models more in line with a certain solution. The Gulfstream data is always very valuable.

[psyclone]

if the first 4 names this year were appetizers (hard to argue that) than this could be our first main course of what i fear could be quite a season. it certainly makes sense looking at the calandar...the approach of august means it's time watch out and look for the beast from the east. it would not be a surprise to see this burst during dmax late tonight and see advisories initiated tomorrow morning with immediate warnings for some of those eastern caribbean islands.

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[KWT]

Gulfstream will really help with regards to future intensity and short term track over the next 48-72hrs, I'm not sure it will make any difference with regards to the upper trough development 144hrs out though...