ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Evil Jeremy]

What do you guys think the 8pm call will be? I think the NHC will go up to 90%.

[HurricaneWarning92]

While I realize everyone wants to talk about their area whether GOM or the East Coast the intial threat ove rthe next few day is the Caribbean area.

As long as the National Hurricane Center plays games as far as updating this, they are playing with peoples lives and property. Can we concentrate on the next 3-4 days please? To us in the islands, this is more important.

The National Hurricane Center doesn't play "games" with anything. They are a hard-working group of meteorological professionals who do their best day in, day out, to save lives and property.

Warnings will be given the next time I/we see these kinds of comments about the NHC and I suggest everyone remind themselves of the Storm2K rules regarding criticisms of the NHC.

I agree with Portastorm. The NHC is working their butt off so we can have the latest information and precautions about a certain situation. I believe its certainly hard for them as well. No need to criticize them. Just relax. Its not even a depression yet.

[ROCK]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Catching up on this thread. I still see nothing that can indicate a SE U.S mainland hit here folks, not matter how hard I look at these models.

The ECMWF has a very WEAK system into hispaniola headed in the Bahamas and already showing a recuve away from the U.S.

If the system is stronger it will recurve farther away from the U.S.

The NOGAPS folks is NOT GOOD in forecasting tropical cyclone development and long-range movement.

At this point it looks pretty certain the U.S will not be impacted by this system. It's another perfect setup like last year.

If the system is weak, it will just crash into Central America traversing the Caribbean with good ridging over the GOM.

If the system becomes strong, it will recurve hundreds of miles east of Florida and the SE U.S.

are you basing this off the 18Z GFS?

the EURO two runs ago had this heading into the Ecarib as a full blown hurricane. It shift north then south today....that means nothing? I wouldnt be shocked if this did not recurve, stays weak and shoot the straits or the Yucantan Channel and into the NGOM states or Florida.

[Florida1118]

What do you guys think the 8pm call will be? I think the NHC will go up to 90%.

Ya 80-90%, with the same wording of continued orgainization and could become a TD in a day or so.

[knotimpaired]

Thats okay, no need for a warning. I could hit "quote" for many, many posts that have appeared today that were critical to the NHC and there was never a concern over theirs.

I respectively bow out of any discussion on Storm2k.

[KWT]

Gatorcane, this is true, I will say though that Earl came mighty close and this system will be getting further west further south than Earl. If the models are over agressive with both the speed of the NW turn and the upper troughs strength, that could lead to a pretty close call...

[GCANE]

I am really having issues with the recent skill of the globals; not just the Atlantic systems, but I remember how much they botched Ma-on when it was about at this point in terms of being an invest.

CMC & GFS had it spinning up as a Cat 5 and hitting Honshu as a major.

[gatorcane]

The next 24-48 hours will be interesting now that it has completed detached from the moist ITCZ....if it can generate thunderstorms near the center soon, it could be named soon.

But I doubt that. I think the structure will continue to look good, but I think we will see the overall convection diminish as it already has.

Fortunately it is not rapidly organizing and as each hour goes by, it is better an better for those in the islands as it will have less time to organize..

Also I have to hand it to the HWRF for forecasting the NW movement (detach from ITCZ) we saw today from this system...

[Portastorm]

Thats okay, no need for a warning. I could hit "quote" for many, many posts that have appeared today that were critical to the NHC and there was never a concern over theirs.

I respectively bow out of any discussion on Storm2k.

For clarity's sake ... my warning was intended not only for you but for everyone else who has posted a comment along the same lines. Discussion is fine within the confine of our rules.

Now, let's get back to talking about the model runs for 91L, please.

[ROCK]

current steering....westward or wnw for now...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

[KWT]

Yeah I don't really think the dry air is an issue with such a large moisture area like this system has got.

its just Dmin for now IMO...next 12hrs will determine if there is anything else going on...

Besides, convection isn't that weak yet..80% is perfect IMO at this stage, some would argue it may well already BE a TD.

[ronjon]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Catching up on this thread. I still see nothing that can indicate a SE U.S mainland hit here folks, not matter how hard I look at these models.

The ECMWF has a very WEAK system into hispaniola headed in the Bahamas and already showing a recuve away from the U.S.

If the system is stronger it will recurve farther away from the U.S.

The NOGAPS folks is NOT GOOD in forecasting tropical cyclone development and long-range movement.

At this point it looks pretty certain the U.S will not be impacted by this system. It's another perfect setup like last year.

If the system is weak, it will just crash into Central America traversing the Caribbean with good ridging over the GOM.

If the system becomes strong, it will recurve hundreds of miles east of Florida and the SE U.S.

A recurve east of Florida looks likely at this moment - however, the ECM I think goes overboard with the troughing off the east coast - if it verifies it'll be the strongest east coast trough in a couple of months. That would represent a negative NAO transition. Surprisingly, the GFS ensemble means don't match the degree of trough intensity of the European suite today (was flip-lopped yesterday). I think thats why models like the GFDL road a mostly W-NW track. I wouldn't completely discard the NOGAPs as its path is a reasonsable solution if troughing off the east coast is not as strong as the ECM. Since the upper air pattern is coming into the 5-6 day forecast window we'll have a much better idea on the strength of the east coast trough over the next day or two of global model runs. I think we should all focus on the islands now and I lump the LA, VI, PR, and Hispanola as all potentially being in the mix of a large and powerful hurricane. Right now, its going to be a close call for PR but if the ECM is correct, they might just luck out with the storm sliding to the south. Of course, if GFS is correct, they'll suffer a direct hit from a big storm.

[HurricaneWarning92]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Catching up on this thread. I still see nothing that can indicate a SE U.S mainland hit here folks, not matter how hard I look at these models.

The ECMWF has a very WEAK system into hispaniola headed in the Bahamas and already showing a recuve away from the U.S.

If the system is stronger it will recurve farther away from the U.S.

The NOGAPS folks is NOT GOOD in forecasting tropical cyclone development and long-range movement.

At this point it looks pretty certain the U.S will not be impacted by this system. It's another perfect setup like last year.

If the system is weak, it will just crash into Central America traversing the Caribbean with good ridging over the GOM.

If the system becomes strong, it will recurve hundreds of miles east of Florida and the SE U.S.

are you basing this off the 18Z GFS?

the EURO two runs ago had this heading into the Ecarib as a full blown hurricane. It shift north then south today....that means nothing? I wouldnt be shocked if this did not recurve, stays weak and shoot the straits or the Yucantan Channel and into the NGOM states or Florida.

For real, what if its between a weak storm and strong storm? A moderate storm. that would take it to Florida and/or the GOM.

[KWT]

Fortunately it is not rapidly organizing and as each hour goes by, it is better an better for those int the islands as it will have less time to organize..

Good for the eastern Caribbean islands, probably worse for Hispaniola if that happened, because I think that'd increase their threat and also allow the system to have more time to strengthen in the Caribbean.

[ROCK]

Catching up on this thread. I still see nothing that can indicate a SE U.S mainland hit here folks, not matter how hard I look at these models.

The ECMWF has a very WEAK system into hispaniola headed in the Bahamas and already showing a recuve away from the U.S.

If the system is stronger it will recurve farther away from the U.S.

The NOGAPS folks is NOT GOOD in forecasting tropical cyclone development and long-range movement.

At this point it looks pretty certain the U.S will not be impacted by this system. It's another perfect setup like last year.

If the system is weak, it will just crash into Central America traversing the Caribbean with good ridging over the GOM.

If the system becomes strong, it will recurve hundreds of miles east of Florida and the SE U.S.[/quote]


are you basing this off the 18Z GFS?

the EURO two runs ago had this heading into the Ecarib as a full blown hurricane. It shift north then south today....that means nothing? I wouldnt be shocked if this did not recurve, stays weak and shoot the straits or the Yucantan Channel and into the NGOM states or Florida.[/quote]

For real, what if its between a weak storm and strong storm? A moderate storm. that would take it to Florida and/or the GOM.[/quote]


we watch the guidance and the current stage of developement...(which I might add has great structure but I dont see a LLC with this yet)...just know the more west in the short term mean more of a US threat in the long range...

[KWT]

A moderate storm would probably follow the strong route, its an "either-or" solution, either it turns NW through the Caribbean and recurves into the Atlantic with maybe a close call with Bahamas/East coast OR through Caribbean into central America.

I would think the Gulf is probably the safest place in the basin right now when it comes to 91L...but of course these systems never work with certainties...

[tolakram]

Not sure dry air is an issue, though it is close.

WV floater loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

[JPmia]

yeah call me a skeptic at the moment.. why just a few days ago we were all wondering why the models were not picking up Bret, Cindy and Don... so it really is unclear right now, which makes it all the more intriguing! Cycloneye and Gustywind and other islanders..hope you're getting ready!

[GCANE]

Looks like PV is all middle level and not really down to the surface yet.

Very impressive warm core for just an invest.

Tracking into the anti-cyclone and higher SSTs.

Like normal, once a wave gets past 50W, the real spinup gets going.

Chances are no doubt going up.

[GCANE]

At 90%

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/