ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[bamajammer4eva]

I believe Earl was originally a threat to Bermuda but little by little the track got shifted west till it ended us scraping the east coast. If the same thing happened with Emily to be, by about the same distance, what would stop it from being like NOGAPS or even entering the gulf?

Here's Earl's forecast animation and how the NHC changed its track over time

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/graphics/al07/loop_5W.shtml

[KWT]

Good point KWT. I honestly don't see how it CAN'T recurve, unless it's south of the islands. I mean, even if the high pressure to the east of the weakeness is a little further west that than graphic shows, all it means is that it will recurve will be more west of Burmuda, but that's a large weakeness that should suck up Emily like a vacuum cleaner.

Well there is a small chance that it'll track further south and west then expected and also that the models are too agressive with the troughing, that could lead to a David 79/Cleo 64 type track, still a recurve but nowhere near quick enough to avoid land...

I think the odds are small, but if its hits Hispaniola and rapidly weakens it, then it may not be in as good a position to be lifted out...

[tolakram]

The convection die off looks familiar, very similar to a lot of early TD's where the convection wanes just before much better organization starts. In the latest IR loop you can finally see a real circulation (mid level) near the center of the dieing convection. Very hard to predict, we'll see later tonight.

[Vortex]

If the pattern suggested by the ECM verifies late next week with a ridge building back in we have a problem along the US east coast from FL north ...Not sold on any one solution...

[KWT]

All depends on the speed/strength of the upper trough and 91L's position and strength in relation to that upper trough.

18z GFS reminds me quite abit of hurricane Hortense in terms of track, which caused extreme flooding in PR...

[Vortex]

Nogaps looks almost identical to David in 79' First hurricane I experienced in FL....

[KWT]

If the pattern suggested by the ECM verifies late next week with a ridge building back in we have a problem along the US east coast from FL north ...Not sold on any one solution...

There is no rebuilding ridge, what there is a gapping hole inbetween the Bermuda cell and the high over the US...

Take a look at the 500mbs height, its fairly obvious...thats what Wxman57 used in the main thread to show the weakness.

No real upper trough, but enough of a weakness to suggest that even a weak trough will probably do the job by 144hrs.

[HurricaneWarning92]

I believe Earl was originally a threat to Bermuda but little by little the track got shifted west till it ended us scraping the east coast. If the same thing happened with Emily to be, by about the same distance, what would stop it from being like NOGAPS or even entering the gulf?

Here's Earl's forecast animation and how the NHC changed its track over time

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/graphics/al07/loop_5W.shtml

Wow! what a big shift westward! i didnt remember it was that big a shift.

[fci]

It's looking better as the day goes by, I agree with Wxman, they should immediately issue a warning on this developing monster. I've been warning about August 1st-4th and Aug. 7-10 as perhaps having hurricane type events at another forum I belong. I wonder if this storm would encompass both time frames? Looks like it will be a big player, much more promising than Don that's for sure. I'd say it's already looking like a TD.

I don't understand what scientific basis you have to predict storms for specific dates on the calendar.
Can you elaborate on what prompts you to pick Aug 1-4 or 7-10 rather than Aug 5 or 6?
Something scientific? Crystal Ball? Farmers Almanac??

[knotimpaired]

While I realize everyone wants to talk about their area whether GOM or the East Coast the intial threat ove rthe next few day is the Caribbean area.

As long as the National Hurricane Center plays games as far as updating this, they are playing with peoples lives and property. Can we concentrate on the next 3-4 days please? To us in the islands, this is more important.

[HurricaneWarning92]

If the pattern suggested by the ECM verifies late next week with a ridge building back in we have a problem along the US east coast from FL north ...Not sold on any one solution...

There is no rebuilding ridge, what there is a gapping hole inbetween the Bermuda cell and the high over the US...

Take a look at the 500mbs height, its fairly obvious...thats what Wxman57 used in the main thread to show the weakness.

No real upper trough, but enough of a weakness to suggest that even a weak trough will probably do the job by 144hrs.

Couldnt that change though? thats still 6 days out.

[Florida1118]

It's looking better as the day goes by, I agree with Wxman, they should immediately issue a warning on this developing monster. I've been warning about August 1st-4th and Aug. 7-10 as perhaps having hurricane type events at another forum I belong. I wonder if this storm would encompass both time frames? Looks like it will be a big player, much more promising than Don that's for sure. I'd say it's already looking like a TD.

I don't understand what scientific basis you have to predict storms for specific dates on the calendar.
Can you elaborate on what prompts you to pick Aug 1-4 or 7-10 rather than Aug 5 or 6?
Something scientific? Crystal Ball? Farmers Almanac??

Haha that said Florida would have been hit over 5 times since 2009.

[tolakram]

IR Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[ROCK]

If the pattern suggested by the ECM verifies late next week with a ridge building back in we have a problem along the US east coast from FL north ...Not sold on any one solution...

There is no rebuilding ridge, what there is a gapping hole inbetween the Bermuda cell and the high over the US...

Take a look at the 500mbs height, its fairly obvious...thats what Wxman57 used in the main thread to show the weakness.

No real upper trough, but enough of a weakness to suggest that even a weak trough will probably do the job by 144hrs.

Couldnt that change though? thats still 6 days out.

sure but RIGHT now the guidance suggests it will be there in 6 days....that is what models are, guidance for forecasters....

[Portastorm]

While I realize everyone wants to talk about their area whether GOM or the East Coast the intial threat ove rthe next few day is the Caribbean area.

As long as the National Hurricane Center plays games as far as updating this, they are playing with peoples lives and property. Can we concentrate on the next 3-4 days please? To us in the islands, this is more important.

The National Hurricane Center doesn't play "games" with anything. They are a hard-working group of meteorological professionals who do their best day in, day out, to save lives and property.

Warnings will be given the next time I/we see these kinds of comments about the NHC and I suggest everyone remind themselves of the Storm2K rules regarding criticisms of the NHC.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Catching up on this thread. I still see nothing that can indicate a SE U.S mainland hit here folks, no matter how hard I look at these models.

The ECMWF has a very WEAK system into hispaniola headed in the Bahamas and already showing a recuve away from the U.S.

If the system is stronger it will recurve farther away from the U.S.

The NOGAPS folks is NOT GOOD in forecasting tropical cyclone development and long-range movement.

At this point it looks pretty certain the U.S will not be impacted by this system. It's another perfect setup like last year.

If the system is weak, it will just crash into Central America traversing the Caribbean with good ridging over the GOM.

If the system becomes strong, it will recurve hundreds of miles east of Florida and the SE U.S.

[KWT]

The convection die off looks familiar, very similar to a lot of early TD's where the convection wanes just before much better organization starts. In the latest IR loop you can finally see a real circulation (mid level) near the center of the dieing convection. Very hard to predict, we'll see later tonight.

Yep classic developing system behaviour there, weakening during Dmin and then convective bursting by Dmax.

I think tomorrow is the day for development and I expect recon will probably find a TS.

[gatorcane]

The dry air is finally starting to impact it, as forecasted. I think that will keep it in check the next couple of days.

That said though - it has a great structure and if the dry air does not penetrate as much as expected, it could become a named system sooner.

Shear is not a factor and ocean temperatures are high enough for tropical cyclone formation.

The only thing I see is the dry air.....

I would say 60-70% chance instead of 80% though for a named system within 48 hours out of respect for the ECMWF and GFDL.

But about 100% it will get named before all is said and one.

[Evil Jeremy]

If the system is weak, it will just crash into Central America traversing the Caribbean with good ridging over the GOM.

If the system becomes strong, it will recurve hundreds of miles east of Florida and the SE U.S.

There are always more than two options. While it is looking very likely this will recurve and not affect the USA, nothing is ever definite, and you can't completely ignore the models.

[theweatherwatch]

The dry air is finally starting to impact it, as forecasted. I think that will keep it in check the next couple of days.

That said though - it has a great structure and if the dry air does not penetrate as much as expected, it could become a named system sooner.

Shear is not a factor and ocean temperatures are high enough for tropical cyclone formation.

The only thing I see is the dry air.....

I would say 60-70% chance instead of 80% though.

Who was forecasting the Dry air to impact it? During the Day convection should be at it lowest! Chances are new convection will fire as we head in to the overnight hours.