ATL: EMILY - Remnants

KWT · #881 Postby **KWT** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 5:16 pm

EJ, its probab;y just something as simple as D-Min occuring I'd have thought, as you sayconvection will likely refire some point in the near future and that I think will be enough to tip this system over the edge with regards to development.

HurricaneWarning92 · #882 Postby **HurricaneWarning92** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 5:16 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:Convection has been waning this evening, but should re-fire overnight. Now, I'm no expert, but am I right in thinking that waning convection could be a sign of the storm organizing it's vorticity/multiple lows? I'm probably wrong, but worth asking.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

It still has that "look" so... :eek:

KWT · #883 Postby **KWT** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 5:18 pm

Further west at 96hrs, heading towards PR and maybe even brushing DR as well...

Upper trough a fair bit deeper though as well, so further west but may recurve to eventually the same sort of point as the 12z run...

Aric Dunn · #884 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 5:19 pm

102 hrs about 200 miles SW of 12z. heading into hispanola

#885 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 5:19 pm

For those of you asking why this system won't come into the Gulf, it would help to look at the steering pattern that is predicted to be in place by the middle of next week as this projected storm reaches passes the NE Caribbean. Note the high center ENE of the hurricane symbol and the trof immediately in the path of the storm. Also note the flow across the central to western Caribbean. There's nothing to steer it toward the Gulf if it takes a southern track. The one chance would be if that trof off the east coast lifts out unexpectedly and high pressure builds back in. That's probably not likely, but there could be a threat to the east coast.

#886 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 5:20 pm

72 hour forecast by TAFB.

Aric Dunn · #887 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 5:20 pm

and ridge still holding ...

KWT · #888 Postby **KWT** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 5:22 pm

Yep, though as I said upper trough is a little deeper on this run so will be interesting to see how far west it goes this run.

#889 Postby **Dave** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 5:22 pm

Unless the creeks rise in this desert tomorrow (10% chance if that) I'll be here to help with some of these missions.

KWT · #890 Postby **KWT** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 5:23 pm

Not great looking forecast there cycloneye, probably also implies a threat to Hispaniola as well there unless it gains more latitude.

Aric Dunn · #891 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 5:23 pm

120 hours entering the SE bahamas..

#892 Postby **SFLcane** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 5:23 pm

Already moving NW @ 129hrs into weakness.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=07%2F30%2F2011+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=ATLANTIC&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=&areaDesc=Atlantic+region&prevArea=ATLANTIC&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

Florida1118 · #893 Postby **Florida1118** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 5:23 pm

Dave wrote:Unless the creeks rise in this desert tomorrow (10% chance if that) I'll be here to help with some of these missions.

Ya If anyone needs a break I can fill in for a period of time if needed.

HurricaneWarning92 · #894 Postby **HurricaneWarning92** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 5:24 pm

According to this video at the bottom of the page on accuweather, Sunday is the "day"...

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/s ... n-bull.asp

bamajammer4eva · #895 Postby **bamajammer4eva** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 5:24 pm

KWT wrote:Yep, though as I said upper trough is a little deeper on this run so will be interesting to see how far west it goes this run.

18z is farther west and south at 129 than it was at 135 on the 12z

Edit

same thing at 18z 141h vs 12z 147h

KWT · #896 Postby **KWT** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 5:24 pm

Yep moving into the weakness, Wxman57 just done a grea tpost by the way which describes what I've been talking about with regards to the steering pattern, its VERY hard to get a storm into the US from the point its at with those types of steering currents.

Aric Dunn · #897 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 5:25 pm

the Low of east coast this run is much farther east than the 12z already past "emily" vs the 12z where is was still digging ...

should start turning though ..

#898 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 5:25 pm

Dave wrote:Unless the creeks rise in this desert tomorrow (10% chance if that) I'll be here to help with some of these missions.

Ok good.

#899 Postby **MGC** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 5:25 pm

Yes, Ivan was a good example of the models trying to recurve the hurricane too soon. Track kept shifting west with every advisory......MGC

#900 Postby **SFLcane** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 5:26 pm

Highly unlikely any CV wave approaches the southeast with that pattern.

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